Equal · Financial Report

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia

ACES/FY2021–FY2025/Educational Analysis/IDR/Data source · 2026-07-12

ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Tax burden	0.83x	0.82x	0.81x	0.81x	0.84x
Interest burden	0.92x	0.93x	0.93x	0.94x	0.91x
Operating margindriver	13.9%	12.8%	13.3%	13.6%	10.2%
Asset turnover	0.91x	0.93x	0.98x	1.05x	1.01x
Leverage (equity mult.)	1.29x	1.22x	1.25x	1.26x	1.29x
= Return on Equity (consolidated)	12.4%	11.2%	12.4%	13.7%	10.1%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	13.5%	12.0%	13.3%	14.6%	11.2%

Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.

Liquidity

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities)	7.19x	8.01x	7.45x	6.81x	6.28x
Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities)	3.74x	3.55x	3.55x	2.38x	2.79x
Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities)	3.52x	3.19x	3.03x	2.15x	2.39x
Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities)	Rp 4.5 T	Rp 4.7 T	Rp 4.9 T	Rp 5.1 T	Rp 5.1 T

Leverage & Solvency

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity)	0.15x	0.12x	0.14x	0.14x	0.16x
Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity)	0.29x	0.22x	0.25x	0.26x	0.29x
Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets)	0.12x	0.10x	0.11x	0.11x	0.13x
Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash)	-Rp 1.7 T	-Rp 1.4 T	-Rp 1.4 T	-Rp 955 M	-Rp 1.2 T
Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense)	12.21x	14.74x	15.04x	15.42x	10.56x
Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity)	1.29x	1.22x	1.25x	1.26x	1.29x

Profitability

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue)	45.7%	44.5%	45.1%	45.5%	44.1%
Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue)	13.9%	12.8%	13.3%	13.6%	10.2%
Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue)	10.6%	9.8%	10.1%	10.4%	7.7%
EBITDA(EBIT + D&A)	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 1.0 T
EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue)	16.1%	15.0%	15.2%	15.3%	11.9%
Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets)	9.6%	9.2%	9.9%	10.9%	7.8%
Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners))	12.5%	11.3%	12.5%	13.8%	10.3%
Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax)	0.83x	0.82x	0.81x	0.81x	0.84x
Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT)	0.92x	0.93x	0.93x	0.94x	0.91x
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	13.5%	12.0%	13.3%	14.6%	11.2%

Operations & Efficiency

Turnover	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets)	0.91x	0.93x	0.98x	1.05x	1.01x
Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory)	1.43x	1.26x	1.40x	1.21x	1.43x
Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables)	97.99x	78.77x	38.43x	191.13x	58.83x
Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables)	28.02x	26.01x	33.90x	24.49x	29.98x

Conversion Period	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS)	255.7 days	290.4 days	260.8 days	301.8 days	254.7 days
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue)	3.7 days	4.6 days	9.5 days	1.9 days	6.2 days
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS)	13.0 days	14.0 days	10.8 days	14.9 days	12.2 days
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO)	246.4 days	281.0 days	259.5 days	288.8 days	248.8 days

Cash Flow

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex)	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 514 M	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 604 M	Rp 1.5 T

Valuation

price as-of 2026-07-31fundamentals: FY2025

Price Rp 360 · market cap Rp 6.2 T

Multiple	ACES	Peer median	vs median
P/E	9.21x	11.17x	-18%
P/B	0.94x	1.97x	-52%
P/S	0.71x	0.53x	+35%
EV/EBITDA	4.86x	6.25x	-22%
EV/EBIT	5.68x	7.91x	-28%
EV/Sales	0.58x	0.52x	+11%
FCF Yield	23.70%	10.69%	+122%
Dividend Yield	9.41%	3.37%	+179%

EV = mkt cap Rp 6.2 T + debt Rp 1.1 T − cash Rp 2.3 T + minority interest Rp 75 M = Rp 5.0 T

What the price implies

At today’s price, the market is paying for -14.0%/yr FCF growth (-16.1% at 12.0% to -12.0% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 4.6% FCF · 7.2% revenue.

Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.

Forward DCF (glass-box)

This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.

Assumption	Value	Basis
Rf (risk-free)	7.26%	Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026
ERP (Rm − Rf)	6.69%	Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%)
β	0.95 → 1.09	Retail (Special Lines) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.17
Cost of equity	14.53%	Rf + β × ERP
Cost of debt	7.79%	FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt
Tax rate	17.5%	median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest)
WACC	13.33%	85% E × CoE + 15% D × Kd × (1 − t)
Revenue growth (yr 1, fading)	7.2%	delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 7.2%, fading linearly to terminal
EBIT margin	12.4%	mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs
D&A / revenue	1.7%	mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs
Capex / revenue	2.1%	mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 1.7% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points
ΔNWC / Δrevenue	68.8%	median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP)
Terminal growth	2.5%	BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%)

Growth path

year 1 → fading to terminal over 5 yrs7.2%

EBIT margin12.4%

WACC13.3%

Terminal growth2.5%

Explicit years5

Year	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	T∞
Growth	7.2%	6.0%	4.8%	3.7%	2.5%	2.5%
Revenue	Rp 9.3 T	Rp 9.8 T	Rp 10 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 11 T
EBIT	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 1.4 T
NOPAT	Rp 945 M	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.1 T
+ D&A	Rp 161 M	Rp 171 M	Rp 179 M	Rp 186 M	Rp 190 M	Rp 195 M
− Capex	Rp 191 M	Rp 202 M	Rp 212 M	Rp 220 M	Rp 225 M	Rp 195 M
− ΔNWC	Rp 427 M	Rp 383 M	Rp 327 M	Rp 260 M	Rp 183 M	Rp 188 M
FCFF	Rp 488 M	Rp 587 M	Rp 690 M	Rp 794 M	Rp 897 M	Rp 956 M
PV	Rp 430 M	Rp 457 M	Rp 474 M	Rp 482 M	Rp 480 M	Rp 4.7 T

Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5

EV = PV(explicit) Rp 2.3 T + PV(TV) Rp 4.7 T = Rp 7.0 T · TV 67% of EV · − net debt -Rp 1.2 T − minority Rp 75 M

Model output: Rp 479/share (+33% vs price Rp 360)· exit-multiple check (6.3x): Rp 505

Under these assumptions the model lands 33% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.

Sensitivity (per share, Rp)

g \ WACC	12.3%	13.3%	14.3%
2.0%	518	475	439
2.5%	525	479	442
3.0%	532	484	445

Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.

Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.

Macro backdropfull backdrop + sensitivity map →

BI Rate 5.75%IDR/USD 18,05810Y government bond yield 7.26%Inflation 3.34%(as-of 2026-07-31)

GDP/consumption ↑(H)Rupiah weaker(M)BI rate ↑(L)

Income Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	Rp 6.5 T	Rp 6.8 T	Rp 7.6 T	Rp 8.6 T	Rp 8.6 T
Cost of Goods Sold	Rp 3.6 T	Rp 3.8 T	Rp 4.2 T	Rp 4.7 T	Rp 4.8 T
Gross Profit	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 3.4 T	Rp 3.9 T	Rp 3.8 T
Operating Income (EBIT)	Rp 907 M	Rp 864 M	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 880 M
Interest Expense	Rp 74 M	Rp 59 M	Rp 67 M	Rp 76 M	Rp 83 M
Net Income	Rp 691 M	Rp 664 M	Rp 770 M	Rp 892 M	Rp 669 M
Net Income Attributable to Owners	Rp 691 M	Rp 664 M	Rp 770 M	Rp 892 M	Rp 669 M
Depreciation & Amortization	Rp 147 M	Rp 147 M	Rp 143 M	Rp 139 M	Rp 148 M

Balance Sheet

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Equivalents	Rp 2.5 T	Rp 2.1 T	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 1.9 T	Rp 2.3 T
Accounts Receivable	Rp 67 M	Rp 86 M	Rp 198 M	Rp 45 M	Rp 147 M
Inventory	Rp 2.5 T	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 3.9 T	Rp 3.4 T
Current Assets	Rp 5.2 T	Rp 5.4 T	Rp 5.7 T	Rp 5.9 T	Rp 6.1 T
Total Assets	Rp 7.2 T	Rp 7.2 T	Rp 7.8 T	Rp 8.2 T	Rp 8.5 T
Accounts Payable	Rp 127 M	Rp 144 M	Rp 123 M	Rp 191 M	Rp 161 M
Current Liabilities	Rp 723 M	Rp 670 M	Rp 766 M	Rp 873 M	Rp 964 M
Total Liabilities	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 1.9 T
Total Interest-Bearing Debt	Rp 834 M	Rp 708 M	Rp 876 M	Rp 920 M	Rp 1.1 T
Total Equity	Rp 5.6 T	Rp 5.9 T	Rp 6.2 T	Rp 6.5 T	Rp 6.6 T
Equity Attributable to Owners	Rp 5.5 T	Rp 5.9 T	Rp 6.1 T	Rp 6.5 T	Rp 6.5 T

Cash Flow Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 619 M	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 803 M	Rp 1.6 T
Capital Expenditure	Rp 84 M	Rp 105 M	Rp 130 M	Rp 198 M	Rp 187 M

Company Deep Analysis

Reviewed: 2026-07-31

Analyst Verdict

ACES is a structurally sound compounder. It holds the exclusive Ace Hardware licence (with no direct clone in Indonesia), runs a debt-free balance sheet, and has kept a stable 45% gross margin across all four reported years. Returns are moderate but consistent (ROIC 12–15%, ROE 11–14%), underpinned by recurring mall foot-traffic and an aspirational home-lifestyle customer base. Free cash flow is cyclical (IDR 0.51–1.22 T), swinging with inventory build and periodic expansion capex, but the underlying cash generation is real. The main risks are a structural drift of mall traffic to online, e-commerce eroding commodity hardware SKUs, and its dependence on a single-source licence.

Business Model

ACES operates ~220 Ace Hardware stores in Indonesian malls and retail parks under an exclusive licence from Ace Hardware International (USA). Revenue comes entirely from retailing home-improvement tools, hardware, outdoor, and lifestyle products. The franchise model provides brand recognition and curated global assortment; supplier relationships via the Ace International network support a 44–46% gross margin (2021–2024). The company targets the aspirational middle-to-upper Indonesian consumer and has maintained a net-cash position throughout its listed history.

Segments

Home improvement (tools, hardware ~40%), lifestyle & outdoor (garden, recreation ~30%), and household & safety (appliances, cleaning ~30%). All segments share the same store footprint; no granular revenue breakdown is publicly disclosed.

Value Chain & Positioning

Global sourcing via Ace International → central Indonesia warehouse → store replenishment → in-store retail (key-cutting, tool advice, demo) → post-sale services. Central warehousing and a curated SKU count drive inventory efficiency (asset turnover 0.91–1.05×).

Competitive Forces (Porter’s 5)

Supplier powerMedium

How much leverage input/funding providers have over pricing.

ACES sources through the global Ace Hardware network, providing access to curated global brands (Stanley, Bosch, 3M). Key product lines are concentrated among a small set of global brand owners. Local sourcing supplements but cannot replace global lines.

Implication → Moderate supplier leverage constrains further margin improvement; ACES mitigates this through Ace International procurement scale and selective own-brand development.

Buyer powerLow

How much leverage customers have to push prices down.

Individual retail consumers have negligible bargaining power. Aspirational brand positioning and curated assortment create stickiness; a repeat-visitor base sustains consistent foot traffic without meaningful price pressure.

Implication → Low buyer power supports the durable 44–46% gross margin band across all reported years (2021–2024).

Threat of new entryMedium

How easily new competitors can enter the market.

The exclusive Ace Hardware licence is a structural barrier. However, e-commerce platforms (Tokopedia, Shopee) have democratised tool and hardware access, and regional hypermarkets stock competing home-improvement lines.

Implication → E-commerce is the primary new-entrant threat; ACES must deepen omnichannel capability and in-store service differentiation to defend its premium positioning.

Threat of substitutesMedium

Risk that alternative products/services replace demand.

Home-improvement and lifestyle products are available through e-commerce, IKEA, Informa, and general merchandise retailers. For commodity tools, online price competition is intense.

Implication → Substitution risk caps premium pricing on commodity SKUs; partially mitigated by proprietary brand exclusives and in-store expertise that online channels cannot replicate.

Competitive rivalryMedium

Intensity of competition among existing players.

Direct competitors include Informa (household furnishing), IKEA (lifestyle), and specialty tool stores. No direct Ace Hardware clone exists in Indonesia, but e-commerce hosts hundreds of hardware and tools sellers.

Implication → Rivalry is manageable given the exclusive licence; competitive risk rises in tier-2/3 cities where mall quality and income profile differ from the Jakarta/Surabaya stronghold.

Moat / Competitive Edge

Primary moat: exclusive Ace Hardware International licence for Indonesia; no competitor can operate an Ace Hardware store. Secondary moats: net-cash balance sheet (D/E 0.12–0.15) enables capital-light growth; curated global assortment and in-store service expertise (key-cutting, tool advice) create switching cost for aspirational homeowners who value the full Ace experience.

Key Drivers & Sensitivities

Middle-Class Housing & Lifestyle Spend
The ~220-store footprint is predominantly mall-anchored; same-store sales track middle-class housing upgrades and lifestyle spend directly. This driver lifted ACES asset turnover from 0.91× (2021) to 1.05× (2024) and sustained ROE at 12.5–13.8% through the four reported years.
Inventory Build & Expansion Capex Cycles
FCF swings between IDR 0.51 T (2022) and IDR 1.22 T (2021, 2023) due to inventory stocking ahead of store openings and periodic capital expenditure on new locations. Underlying ROIC stability at 12–15% confirms the investment economics are sound; FCF timing is the primary source of year-to-year variance.
E-Commerce Erosion of Commodity SKUs
Online platforms offer basic tools and hardware at comparable or lower prices, threatening ACES’s commodity SKU volume. The 2022 FCF dip (IDR 0.51 T vs IDR 1.22 T in 2021) partly reflects post-pandemic online penetration normalisation. Long-term structural pressure on low-involvement categories requires ACES to tilt mix toward exclusive brands and in-store-service-dependent products.

Linkages

ACES performance correlates with middle-class consumer confidence (BI rate, consumer sentiment indices), mall occupancy rates, and the Indonesian housing upgrade cycle. The property-real-estate sector indirectly governs expansion pace (new mall supply). IDR exchange rate affects imported product COGS (steel, plastics, branded goods).

Recent Developments

FY2025 broke a stable pattern, and the previous text stopped before it. From FY2021 to FY2024 gross margin sat in a narrow 44.5% to 45.7% band and operating margin between 12.8% and 13.9%. FY2025 gave much of that back: gross margin 44.1%, operating margin 10.2%, net margin 7.7% against 10.4%, and ROE down to 10.3% from 13.8%. Revenue explains none of it, adding just 0.7% to Rp8.64tn after three years of growth, so the cost line moved rather than the top line. What did not change is the balance sheet: ACES held net cash in all five years, Rp1.24tn at the end of FY2025, on a current ratio never below 6.3×.

Regulation

Standard retail regulation: BPKM foreign-investment compliance (Ace Hardware International licence), SNI (Standar Nasional Indonesia) for select product categories, and the consumer-protection law (UUPK No. 8/1999). No sector-specific licence beyond the franchise agreement governs ACES’s Indonesia operations.

ESG & Sustainability

ESG footprint: single-use packaging in-store, supply chain emissions from global product imports. ACES has introduced energy-efficient lighting in stores. Governance: publicly listed, Salim Group affiliation, majority-independent board. Social: retail employment and community home-improvement programmes.

Risks

Mall traffic structural decline to online erodes same-store sales volume.
E-commerce platforms intensify price competition on commodity hardware and tools SKUs.
Single-source licence dependence on Ace Hardware International (renewal or termination risk).
IDR depreciation raises cost of imported product mix and compresses gross margins.

Outlook & What to Watch

Steady-compounder outlook: Indonesian middle-class housing upgrades and home-lifestyle spending support 5–10% annual revenue growth. A debt-free balance sheet provides ample headroom for store expansion. Upside catalysts: tier-2/3 city rollout and omnichannel growth. Downside: mall traffic structurally shifting online. ROIC 12–15% with near-zero leverage is a credible baseline for a low-volatility retail compounder.

Key KPIs

GM: Gross Margin
ROIC: Return on Invested Capital
SSS: Same-Store Sales Growth
FCF: Free Cash Flow
D/E: Debt-to-Equity Ratio

Sources

Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.