…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burdendriver | 0.50x | 0.81x | 1.02x | 1.00x | 0.91x |
| Interest burden | 0.93x | 0.97x | 0.94x | 0.97x | 0.99x |
| Operating margin | 10.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 9.5% |
| Asset turnover | 1.17x | 1.37x | 0.96x | 1.55x | 1.61x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.58x | 1.42x | 1.37x | 1.38x | 1.44x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 8.9% | 16.1% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 19.7% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 9.1% | 16.7% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 19.9% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 1.79x | 1.96x | 2.34x | 1.84x | 2.38x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 1.31x | 1.47x | 1.93x | 1.22x | 1.58x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.78x | 0.75x | 1.07x | 0.49x | 0.87x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 8.2 T | Rp 13 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.31x | 0.15x | 0.10x | 0.01x | 0.12x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.58x | 0.42x | 0.37x | 0.38x | 0.44x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.19x | 0.10x | 0.07x | 0.01x | 0.09x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | Rp 1.3 T | -Rp 953 M | -Rp 6.2 T | -Rp 4.5 T | -Rp 3.9 T |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 13.97x | 29.42x | 17.57x | 29.25x | 102.22x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.58x | 1.42x | 1.37x | 1.38x | 1.44x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 20.0% | 17.9% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 17.5% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 10.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 9.5% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 8.5% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 5.0 T | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 9.2 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 10.8% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 5.7% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 13.7% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 8.9% | 16.1% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 20.4% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.50x | 0.81x | 1.02x | 1.00x | 0.91x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.93x | 0.97x | 0.94x | 0.97x | 0.99x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 9.1% | 16.7% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 19.9% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 1.17x | 1.37x | 0.96x | 1.55x | 1.61x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 9.90x | 12.97x | 9.84x | 10.29x | 9.03x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 26.56x | 25.06x | 37.51x | 60.23x | 36.36x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 21.98x | 28.96x | 22.04x | 35.07x | 43.70x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 36.9 days | 28.1 days | 37.1 days | 35.5 days | 40.4 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 13.7 days | 14.6 days | 9.7 days | 6.1 days | 10.0 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 16.6 days | 12.6 days | 16.6 days | 10.4 days | 8.4 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 34.0 days | 30.1 days | 30.3 days | 31.1 days | 42.1 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 4.2 T |
Price Rp 2,880 · market cap Rp 69 T
| Multiple | ANTM | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.60x | 16.25x(15/16) | -41% |
| P/B | 1.96x | 1.68x | +17% |
| P/S | 0.82x | 1.92x | -57% |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.28x | 10.31x | -29% |
| EV/EBIT | 8.31x | 14.25x | -42% |
| EV/Sales | 0.79x | 2.27x | -65% |
| FCF Yield | 6.05% | 0.01% | +57,324% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.27% | 5.27%(11/16) | 0% |
EV = mkt cap Rp 69 T + debt Rp 4.6 T − cash Rp 8.4 T + minority interest Rp 1.3 T = Rp 67 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 11.4%/yr FCF growth (8.2% at 12.0% to 14.4% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -2.0% FCF · 21.8% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
Cyclical normalization: Commodity/cyclical name: the trailing years are a sample drawn from the price cycle, not a trend. Defaults are therefore normalized, using the full-window mean margin with no cycle-position growth extrapolation. That normalized margin is itself the embedded commodity-price assumption.
Base year contains named one-off item(s): FY2025: Record profit on a gold volume surge, with cash conversion falling below 1.0 for the first time; FY2024: Gross margin collapsed to 10.2 percent while revenue jumped 69 percent. The EBIT basis screens out most non-operating items, but read the Earnings Quality section before trusting the base margin.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.96 → 1.01 | Metals & Mining (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.07 |
| Cost of equity | 14.04% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 3.00% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt (clamped to a 3–20% sane band) |
| Tax rate | 14.3% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 13.34% | 94% E × CoE + 6% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 2.5% | terminal growth from year 1, cyclical normalization: the delivered 4-yr CAGR (21.8%) reflects cycle position, not a trend |
| EBIT margin | 8.8% | full-cycle mean EBIT margin, FY2021–FY2025 (cyclical normalization: this margin is the embedded commodity-price assumption) |
| D&A / revenue | 2.4% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 2.0% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 2.4% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 8.6% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 87 T | Rp 89 T | Rp 91 T | Rp 93 T | Rp 96 T | Rp 98 T |
| EBIT | Rp 7.6 T | Rp 7.8 T | Rp 8.0 T | Rp 8.2 T | Rp 8.4 T | Rp 8.6 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 6.5 T | Rp 6.7 T | Rp 6.9 T | Rp 7.0 T | Rp 7.2 T | Rp 7.4 T |
| + D&A | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.4 T |
| − Capex | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.4 T |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 182 M | Rp 186 M | Rp 191 M | Rp 196 M | Rp 201 M | Rp 206 M |
| FCFF | Rp 6.7 T | Rp 6.9 T | Rp 7.1 T | Rp 7.2 T | Rp 7.4 T | Rp 7.2 T |
| PV | Rp 5.9 T | Rp 5.4 T | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 35 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 24 T + PV(TV) Rp 35 T = Rp 60 T · TV 59% of EV · − net debt -Rp 3.9 T − minority Rp 1.3 T
Model output: Rp 2,598/share (-10% vs price Rp 2,880)· exit-multiple check (10.3x): Rp 3,584
Under these assumptions the model lands close to today's price. The market and these inputs are telling broadly the same story.
| g \ WACC | 12.3% | 13.3% | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 2,744 | 2,515 | 2,322 |
| 2.5% | 2,846 | 2,598 | 2,391 |
| 3.0% | 2,960 | 2,689 | 2,465 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 38 T | Rp 46 T | Rp 41 T | Rp 69 T | Rp 85 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 31 T | Rp 38 T | Rp 34 T | Rp 62 T | Rp 70 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 7.7 T | Rp 8.2 T | Rp 6.9 T | Rp 7.1 T | Rp 15 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 8.0 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 288 M | Rp 167 M | Rp 182 M | Rp 129 M | Rp 78 M |
| Net Income | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 7.2 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 7.2 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 956 M | Rp 772 M | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.1 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 9.2 T | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 8.4 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 2.3 T |
| Inventory | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 7.7 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 12 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 20 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 23 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 33 T | Rp 34 T | Rp 43 T | Rp 45 T | Rp 53 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.6 T |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 6.6 T | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 8.6 T | Rp 9.8 T | Rp 9.7 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 12 T | Rp 9.9 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 16 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 6.4 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 283 M | Rp 4.6 T |
| Total Equity | Rp 21 T | Rp 24 T | Rp 31 T | Rp 32 T | Rp 37 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 21 T | Rp 24 T | Rp 31 T | Rp 31 T | Rp 35 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 5.0 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 4.9 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 501 M | Rp 701 M | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 667 M |
ANTM gross margin: 20.0 % (2021) → 17.9 % (2022) → 16.8 % (2023) → 10.2 % (2024) → 17.5 % (2025). OPM: 10.5 % → 10.7 % → 7.8 % → 5.5 % → 9.5 %. Net margin: 4.8 % → 8.3 % → 7.5 % → 5.3 % → 8.5 %. ROE: 8.9 % → 16.1 % → 10.0 % → 11.6 % → 20.4 %. ROA: 5.7 % → 11.4 % → 7.2 % → 8.2 % → 13.7 %. ROIC: 9.1 % → 16.7 % → 10.5 % → 11.7 % → 19.9 %. D/E near-zero: 0.31 (2021) → 0.009 (2024) → 0.12 (2025). Asset turnover 1.17–1.61×: high for a mining company, reflecting UBPE gold bullion trading volume. FCF IDR 2.5–4.5 T pa. The 2024 gross margin dip to 10.2 % reflects LME nickel collapse (−50 %+ from 2022 peak). The 2025 recovery to 17.5 % GM + 20.4 % ROE is driven by gold price ATH (~USD 2,800–3,000/oz): ANTM is increasingly a gold-leveraged story as nickel faces structural oversupply from Indonesian NPI/HPAL production.
State-owned upstream operations produce nickel ore, ferronickel and bauxite, the traditional core of the company.
EconomicsThis is the capital-intensive half: it carries the reserves, the permits and the RKAB quota exposure, and it is where the asset base sits.
The Logam Mulia refinery processes and sells gold bullion, a large part of it sourced rather than mined, which makes this a processing and trading operation more than a mining one.
EconomicsBought-in gold passes through at a thin spread, so it inflates revenue far more than profit. This single fact explains the whole margin profile below.
Gold volume rose 20 percent to 34.1 tonnes, about 1.1 million troy ounces, in the first nine months of 2025, and the company credits the Logam Mulia digital application for simplifying physical gold purchases. Domestic sales were 96 percent of the total.
EconomicsRead ANTM as a domestic gold savings channel with a mine attached, not as an exporter. That is unusual among Indonesian miners and it changes which risks matter.
Trading physical gold means holding physical gold. The cash conversion cycle stretched from 31.1 days in FY2024 to 42.1 days in FY2025 as volumes surged.
EconomicsThat is why cash did not keep up with profit in FY2025, and it is the cost of running a trading book rather than a mine.
Cost structureDominated by purchased gold, which is why the margin line and the revenue line tell opposite stories. Revenue more than doubled from IDR 41.0tn in FY2023 to IDR 84.6tn in FY2025, yet gross margin over the same stretch went 16.8 percent, then 10.2 percent, then 17.5 percent. A business whose revenue doubles while its gross margin first collapses is passing volume through at a thin spread, not becoming more profitable per unit. Operating margin of 9.5 percent in FY2025 is still below the 10.5 percent of FY2021 despite revenue being 2.2 times larger. Interest is negligible: IDR 78.5bn against IDR 8.0tn of operating profit, cover of 102 times.
Cash cycleShort in absolute terms but moving the wrong way: 34.0, 30.1, 30.3, 31.1 and 42.1 days. The 11 day extension in FY2025 coincides with the gold volume surge, which is exactly what a growing trading book does to working capital. It is well funded, with IDR 8.4tn of cash against IDR 4.6tn of debt, so this is a margin and cash-timing issue rather than a solvency one. But it is the mechanism behind the single most important number on this page, which is the collapse in cash conversion.
Unit economicsTwo ratios move in opposite directions and the tension between them is the company. Asset turnover rose from 0.96 times in FY2023 to 1.61 times in FY2025 as gold volume surged, which lifted return on equity from 10.0 percent to 20.4 percent, the best in the five-year window. But operating margin over the same period only went 7.8 percent to 9.5 percent, still below FY2021. So the return improvement is a TURNOVER story, not a margin story: ANTM is earning more because it is pushing far more metal through the same asset base, at a spread no better than before. That works while volume grows and reverses immediately when it stops, which is a different risk profile from a miner whose returns come from ore grade or cost position.
Ore body is self-supplied from IUP concessions. Mining inputs (explosives, reagents, diesel) are commodity inputs with multiple suppliers. For gold bullion: artisanal miners are fragmented price-takers; UBPE is their only LME-grade refining option in Indonesia.
Implication → Self-supplied ore + UBPE monopoly = low input-side risk. UBPE's monopoly creates a captive artisanal-gold supplier relationship unique in Indonesia.
FeNi and gold are globally priced commodities: ANTM is a pure price-taker at LME. Stainless steel mills (China/Korea) have multiple FeNi/NPI/matte supply alternatives. Gold buyers (Bank Indonesia, global traders) transact at spot. No pricing power in any segment.
Implication → Revenue and margin are fully commodity-price driven. Operational decisions (cost efficiency, volume) are secondary to commodity cycle position.
Indonesian nickel smelting saw massive entry, Tsingshan (IMIP Morowali, NPI/RKEF), Huayue/QMB (HPAL, JIIPE), which structurally oversupplied nickel and collapsed LME prices. ANTM's Pomalaa is old-tech vs. these greenfields. Gold mine entry requires IUP and discovery: limited new large deposits found. SGAR alumina refinery faces no existing competition (only one in Indonesia).
Implication → New nickel supply (Tsingshan, Huayue) is the root cause of ANTM FeNi margin collapse. Old FeNi technology faces structural cost disadvantage: upgrade or exit is the strategic choice.
No substitute for Ni in stainless steel (300 series). NPI is a within-category substitute for FeNi, and it is already displacing ANTM FeNi in cost-sensitive Chinese mills. Gold has no functional substitute in monetary/jewellery demand.
Implication → NPI substitution for FeNi is the medium-term structural risk: HPAL MHP (for EV NiSO₄) is the strategic pivot away from NPI-competed FeNi.
Nickel: ANTM vs. INCO (Vale Indonesia, matte), hundreds of Indonesian NPI/HPAL producers (Tsingshan, Huayue, QMB, private RKEF). Gold: ANTM vs. MDKA (Merdeka Copper Gold), J Resources (private). LME price is the only competitive dimension: cost position determines winner.
Implication → ANTM competes as a price-taker across all segments. The UBPE gold refinery monopoly is the only structural competitive position.
The headline is excellent and the cash line is the warning, so both belong on the page. FY2025 delivered record revenue of IDR 84.6tn and record net profit of IDR 7.2tn, nearly double the IDR 3.6tn of FY2024, lifting return on equity to 20.4 percent. Externally verified: gold volume rose 20 percent to 34.1 tonnes in the first nine months of 2025 with nine-month profit up 197 percent, and the company attributes the demand to its Logam Mulia digital application. Now the catch. Operating cash flow covered net income 2.71, 1.08, 1.42, 1.01 and just 0.67 times across FY2021 to FY2025. In the record year, cash generation of IDR 4.9tn came in BELOW reported profit of IDR 7.2tn for the first time in the window, and it was lower in absolute terms than the IDR 5.0tn generated in FY2021 when profit was a quarter the size. The explanation is not accounting: a gold trading book absorbs working capital as it grows, and the cash cycle duly stretched from 31.1 to 42.1 days. Nothing here is improper, and there are no acquisition gains or revaluations. But a doubling of profit that produces less cash than four years ago is a signal about the KIND of growth, and readers should weight the cash line accordingly.
| Period | One-off item | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | Record profit on a gold volume surge, with cash conversion falling below 1.0 for the first time | Net profit nearly doubled to IDR 7.2tn and revenue reached IDR 84.6tn, yet operating cash flow of IDR 4.9tn covered only 0.67 times that profit, against 1.01 times in FY2024 and 2.71 times in FY2021. The cash cycle stretched from 31.1 to 42.1 days. Growth in a trading book consumes working capital, so treat the profit and the cash as answering different questions. |
| FY2024 | Gross margin collapsed to 10.2 percent while revenue jumped 69 percent | Revenue rose from IDR 41.0tn to IDR 69.2tn while gross margin fell from 16.8 percent to 10.2 percent and operating margin from 7.8 percent to 5.5 percent, the weakest of the window. That combination is the clearest evidence that incremental revenue is low-spread traded gold rather than mined output, and it is why revenue growth alone is a misleading measure for this company. |
Cash conversionDeteriorating, and it is the number to watch rather than the profit. Operating cash flow covered net income 2.71, 1.08, 1.42, 1.01 and 0.67 times. Free cash flow nonetheless stayed POSITIVE in all five years, at IDR 4.5tn, 3.4tn, 2.9tn, 2.5tn and 4.2tn, because capital spending is modest for a miner at IDR 0.5tn to 1.4tn a year. So the business is not consuming cash; it is simply converting a much larger profit into no more cash than it did five years ago. Judge ANTM on gold volume, spread per unit and the cash cycle together, since the profit line alone now moves for reasons the cash line does not follow.
Conservative to the point of caution, which is unusual for a state miner in an upcycle. Capital spending never exceeded IDR 1.4tn in any year, or about 1.7 percent of FY2025 revenue, while equity grew from IDR 20.8tn to IDR 36.6tn and the group moved to a net cash position of about IDR 3.9tn. Debt fell to IDR 283bn in FY2024, essentially nil, before rising modestly to IDR 4.6tn. The company has funded a doubling of throughput almost entirely from its own cash flow.
DeploymentVery little goes into the ground, which is the strategic question rather than a criticism. Capital spending ran IDR 0.5tn, 0.7tn, 1.4tn, 1.2tn and 0.7tn while revenue more than doubled, so the growth came from moving more traded metal rather than from developing reserves. Working capital took the second call as the cash cycle lengthened 11 days in FY2025. The rest went to the balance sheet: cash rose from IDR 5.1tn to IDR 8.4tn and net debt turned into net cash. That leaves an unresolved allocation question. Indonesia is cutting nickel ore quotas by roughly 30 to 34 percent for 2026 and copper and bauxite exports are already banned in raw form, so upstream value increasingly requires processing capacity, and IDR 0.7tn of annual capital spending does not build much of it.
Returns trendReturns improved sharply and for a specific reason. Return on equity went 8.9, 16.1, 10.0, 11.6 and 20.4 percent, with return on invested capital tracking closely at 9.1, 16.7, 10.2, 11.7 and 19.9 percent because there is almost no debt, so the two measures agree and neither is flattered by leverage. The driver was turnover rather than margin, as set out above. On valuation the model is cautious where the market is not. The forward model is run on a cyclically normalised basis and produces IDR 2,597.60 per share against a price of IDR 2,879.78, a gap of MINUS 9.8 percent, so on normalised assumptions the shares trade slightly above value. Against that, EV/EBITDA of 7.28 times sits 29 percent BELOW the mining peer median of 10.31 times. The two tests disagree, and the reason is instructive: the relative multiple is measured on current earnings, which are at a cyclical high, while the model normalises them. Anyone using the peer discount as the argument is implicitly betting that FY2025 volumes and spreads persist. Both are model outputs, not targets.
Revenue went from IDR 41.0tn in FY2023 to IDR 84.6tn in FY2025 while gross margin moved 16.8 to 10.2 to 17.5 percent and operating margin only 7.8 to 9.5 percent, still below the 10.5 percent of FY2021. Incremental revenue is largely bought-in gold passing through at a thin spread, so revenue growth overstates the economic improvement by a wide margin. Any comparison of this company with a pure miner on a revenue or asset-turnover basis will mislead.
Operating cash flow covered net income 2.71, 1.08, 1.42, 1.01 and 0.67 times across FY2021 to FY2025. In the record year cash generation of IDR 4.9tn was BELOW reported profit of IDR 7.2tn and also below the IDR 5.0tn generated in FY2021 on a quarter of the profit, because a growing gold trading book absorbs working capital and the cash cycle stretched 31.1 to 42.1 days. Free cash flow remains positive, so this is a quality-of-growth signal rather than a solvency one, but it is the most important number on the page.
Domestic sales were 96 percent of revenue in the first nine months of 2025 and the volume surge is attributed to a digital application that made buying physical gold easier. That is a genuine distribution advantage, but it also means a large share of profit now depends on Indonesian household appetite for gold as a savings product, which is driven by the gold price and by domestic confidence rather than by industrial demand. It is a different and more reflexive risk than ore grade or cost position.
Capital spending never exceeded IDR 1.4tn in any year of the window, about 1.7 percent of FY2025 revenue, while Indonesia is cutting nickel ore quotas roughly 30 to 34 percent for 2026 and already bans raw bauxite and copper concentrate exports. Policy is pushing value into downstream processing, and a balance sheet holding net cash of about IDR 3.9tn with minimal capital spending is not positioned for that shift. The conservatism protects the balance sheet and postpones the strategic question.
The cyclically normalised model puts value at IDR 2,597.60 against a IDR 2,879.78 price, so 9.8 percent BELOW the market, while EV/EBITDA of 7.28 times is 29 percent below the mining peer median of 10.31 times. The conflict is explainable: the multiple is calculated on FY2025 earnings, which are the highest of the window, while the model normalises them. Using the peer discount as the bull case is an implicit bet that record volumes and current spreads persist, and that assumption should be stated rather than inherited.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia controls >60 % of global nickel supply and is the world's largest thermal-coal exporter; hilirisasi mandates in-country ore processing, reshaping value chains from raw ore to battery-grade products.