…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | — | — | — | — | — |
| Interest burden | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | -89.6% | -69.1% | -18.2% | -15.2% | -41.7% |
| Asset turnoverdriver | 0.07x | 0.13x | 0.17x | 0.18x | 0.25x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.13x | 1.03x | 1.03x | 1.05x | 1.03x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | — | — | — | — | — |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 8.59x | 27.21x | 28.13x | 17.38x | 37.07x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 8.59x | 27.12x | 27.98x | 17.23x | 36.74x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 8.21x | 20.10x | 21.26x | 10.94x | 27.36x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 23 T | Rp 21 T | Rp 19 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 21 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.09x | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.13x | 0.03x | 0.03x | 0.05x | 0.03x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.08x | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | -Rp 23 T | -Rp 16 T | -Rp 15 T | -Rp 11 T | -Rp 16 T |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | -92.70x | -437.99x | -239.51x | -296.07x | -314.16x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.13x | 1.03x | 1.03x | 1.05x | 1.03x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 76.4% | 29.3% | 23.7% | 16.1% | 8.0% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | -89.6% | -69.1% | -18.2% | -15.2% | -41.7% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | -89.5% | 54.8% | -30.8% | -34.7% | 48.3% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | -Rp 1.5 T | -Rp 2.4 T | -Rp 784 M | -Rp 658 M | -Rp 2.7 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | -82.3% | -67.5% | -17.7% | -14.7% | -41.3% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | -6.3% | 7.2% | -5.2% | -6.2% | 12.1% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | -7.1% | 7.5% | -5.4% | -6.5% | 12.4% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax)pretax income not positive | — | — | — | — | — |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT)EBIT not positive | — | — | — | — | — |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)EBIT or pretax not positive | — | — | — | — | — |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.07x | 0.13x | 0.17x | 0.18x | 0.25x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 346.86x | 36.05x | 31.91x | 23.83x | 30.38x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 13.57x | 29.23x | 26.60x | 44.85x | 22.35x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 3.86x | 32.54x | 42.90x | 76.89x | 201.97x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 1.1 days | 10.1 days | 11.4 days | 15.3 days | 12.0 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 26.9 days | 12.5 days | 13.7 days | 8.1 days | 16.3 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 94.7 days | 11.2 days | 8.5 days | 4.7 days | 1.8 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | -66.7 days | 11.4 days | 16.7 days | 18.7 days | 26.5 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | -Rp 1.4 T | -Rp 644 M | Rp 32 M | Rp 269 M | Rp 275 M |
Price Rp 118 · market cap Rp 11 T
| Multiple | BUKA | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 3.45x | 4.78x(3/4) | -28% |
| P/B | 0.43x | 1.27x | -66% |
| P/S | 1.67x | 2.30x | -28% |
| EV/EBITDA | NM | 156.66x(2/4) | — |
| EV/EBIT | NM | 196.82x(2/4) | — |
| EV/Sales | -0.81x | 1.80x | -145% |
| FCF Yield | 2.54% | 1.27% | +99% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.89%(1/4) | — |
EV = mkt cap Rp 11 T + debt Rp 113 M − cash Rp 16 T + minority interest Rp 12 M = -Rp 5.2 T
not computable: non-positive enterprise value. Shown as-is rather than estimated.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
Mechanical DCF suppressed: mean EBIT margin over the last 3 FYs is negative (-25.0%), so a mechanical FCFF perpetuity is not meaningful for a pre-profit record. The reverse DCF above shows what the price implies, and the sliders below let you impose a path-to-margin scenario (a target, not history).
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 1.55 → 1.56 | Software (Internet) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.01 |
| Cost of equity | 17.71% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 7.65% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 22.0% | statutory 22% (no clean effective-rate year in window) |
| WACC | 17.59% | 99% E × CoE + 1% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 30.0% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 36.6% (default capped at 30%), fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | -25.0% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 0.5% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 0.7% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 0.5% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 9.5% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 30.0% | 23.1% | 16.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 8.5 T | Rp 10 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 14 T |
| EBIT | -Rp 2.1 T | -Rp 2.6 T | -Rp 3.0 T | -Rp 3.3 T | -Rp 3.4 T | -Rp 3.5 T |
| NOPAT | -Rp 1.7 T | -Rp 2.0 T | -Rp 2.4 T | -Rp 2.6 T | -Rp 2.7 T | -Rp 2.7 T |
| + D&A | Rp 39 M | Rp 48 M | Rp 56 M | Rp 61 M | Rp 63 M | Rp 64 M |
| − Capex | Rp 57 M | Rp 70 M | Rp 82 M | Rp 89 M | Rp 91 M | Rp 64 M |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 186 M | Rp 186 M | Rp 161 M | Rp 108 M | Rp 31 M | Rp 32 M |
| FCFF | -Rp 1.9 T | -Rp 2.2 T | -Rp 2.6 T | -Rp 2.7 T | -Rp 2.7 T | -Rp 2.7 T |
| PV | -Rp 1.6 T | -Rp 1.6 T | -Rp 1.6 T | -Rp 1.4 T | -Rp 1.2 T | -Rp 8.1 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) -Rp 7.4 T + PV(TV) -Rp 8.1 T = -Rp 15 T · TV 52% of EV · − net debt -Rp 16 T − minority Rp 12 M
Model output: Rp 6/share (-95% vs price Rp 118)· exit-multiple check (156.7x): Rp -2,436
Under these assumptions the model lands 95% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 16.6% | 17.6% | 18.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | -0 | 11 | 21 |
| 2.5% | -6 | 6 | 17 |
| 3.0% | -12 | 1 | 13 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 6.5 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 441 M | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 6.0 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 717 M | Rp 519 M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | -Rp 1.7 T | -Rp 2.5 T | -Rp 806 M | -Rp 678 M | -Rp 2.7 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 18 M | Rp 5.7 M | Rp 3.4 M | Rp 2.3 M | Rp 8.6 M |
| Net Income | -Rp 1.7 T | Rp 2.0 T | -Rp 1.4 T | -Rp 1.5 T | Rp 3.1 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | -Rp 1.7 T | Rp 2.0 T | -Rp 1.4 T | -Rp 1.5 T | Rp 3.1 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 135 M | Rp 58 M | Rp 23 M | Rp 21 M | Rp 27 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 25 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 16 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 138 M | Rp 124 M | Rp 167 M | Rp 99 M | Rp 291 M |
| Inventory | Rp 1.3 M | Rp 71 M | Rp 106 M | Rp 157 M | Rp 197 M |
| Current Assets | Rp 26 T | Rp 22 T | Rp 20 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 22 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 27 T | Rp 27 T | Rp 26 T | Rp 25 T | Rp 26 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 114 M | Rp 79 M | Rp 79 M | Rp 49 M | Rp 30 M |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 809 M | Rp 714 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 593 M |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 908 M | Rp 792 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 717 M |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 65 M | Rp 39 M | Rp 39 M | Rp 113 M |
| Total Equity | Rp 23 T | Rp 26 T | Rp 25 T | Rp 24 T | Rp 25 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 23 T | Rp 26 T | Rp 25 T | Rp 24 T | Rp 25 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -Rp 1.4 T | -Rp 632 M | Rp 41 M | Rp 331 M | Rp 302 M |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 2.1 M | Rp 12 M | Rp 8.6 M | Rp 62 M | Rp 28 M |
BUKA gross margin: 76.4% (2021) → 29.3% → 23.7% → 16.1% → 7.98% (2025, lowest of all 5 years); a steep, sustained decline as the business mix shifted away from its original higher-margin marketplace model toward lower-margin virtual-goods distribution. OPM: −89.6% (2021) → −69.1% → −18.2% → −15.2% → −41.7% (2025, worse than 2024); negative in every single year tracked, including the year BUKA reported its "first-ever profit". NM tells a different story: −89.5% (2021) → +54.8% (2022) → −30.8% → −34.7% → +48.3% (2025); positive in exactly the two years operating margin was not improving relative to trend, a strong signal that both "profitable" years were driven by large non-operating gains (likely investment/interest income or one-off items given BUKA's very large cash position) rather than the core business turning around. ROE followed the same swing: −7.1% → +7.5% → −5.4% → −6.5% → +12.4%. Leverage is essentially zero throughout, D/E never exceeded 0.09×, L/E never exceeded 0.13×, because BUKA carries almost no debt and an enormous net cash position (net debt negative Rp 11.2-22.6 trillion every year, a legacy of its 2021 IPO). Current ratio is extraordinarily high throughout (8.6× in 2021, peaking at 37.1× in 2025): BUKA holds vastly more current assets than current liabilities could ever require, reflecting a large, largely undeployed cash pile relative to its now much smaller operating business. FCF: −Rp 1,411.4 B (2021) → −Rp 644.1 B → +Rp 32.0 B (2023, first positive) → +Rp 268.7 B → +Rp 274.8 B (2025); turned positive from 2023 onward and has stayed there, a genuinely positive, multi-year trend independent of the NM swings. Revenue (Rp): 1,869.1 B → 3,618.4 B → 4,438.3 B → 4,460.3 B → 6,510.0 B (+45.9% in FY2025, reflecting the post-pivot gaming/Mitra growth).
Mitra's virtual-goods distribution depends on supply agreements with a handful of large telcos and utilities for mobile credit, data packages and electricity tokens: real, concentrated upstream leverage given how few providers control that supply.
Implication → BUKA's gross margin decline (76.4% to 7.98% over five years) partly reflects this shift toward lower-margin, supplier-priced virtual-goods distribution and away from its original, higher-margin marketplace take-rate model.
Mitra's warung-owner customers and Gaming's players are price-sensitive with multiple competing O2O and top-up platforms to choose from: low switching costs across the board.
Implication → Structural buyer leverage is a real constraint on BUKA's ability to rebuild the higher gross margins its original marketplace model once had.
O2O virtual-goods distribution and gaming top-up/voucher services have relatively low technology barriers: Mitra competes directly with similar networks from other players, and gaming top-up/voucher platforms are a crowded field.
Implication → BUKA's post-pivot moat is scale (16 M+ Mitra merchants, an established gaming platform) rather than a structural barrier a well-funded new entrant could not eventually replicate.
Virtual-goods buyers can go directly to telco apps or game-publisher storefronts instead of through Mitra or BUKA's gaming platforms, bypassing the distribution layer BUKA occupies.
Implication → BUKA's value-add is aggregation and reach (16 M+ warungs) rather than exclusivity: a real but not unassailable position.
BUKA competes with a crowded field of virtual-goods/O2O distributors and gaming top-up platforms, none of which is named as a single dominant rival the way Grab is for GOTO.
Implication → Fragmented rivalry means no single competitive threat dominates BUKA's outlook, but also that no single win could secure durable leadership either: the post-pivot business remains a genuine, ongoing contest.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's ~USD 100 B digital economy (2025, e-Conomy SEA) is Southeast Asia's largest, but its four listed anchors span radically different models: DCII (data-center infrastructure, the physical backbone), GOTO (Gojek on-demand + GoPay fintech, after deconsolidating Tokopedia to TikTok in 2024), BUKA (a former e-commerce marketplace that fully exited physical goods in 2025 to focus on virtual goods, gaming and O2O), and EMTK (a diversified media/health/aviation conglomerate with a real, fast-growing digital arm and majority ownership of BUKA).