Equal
…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.79x | 0.85x | 0.77x | 0.71x | 0.75x |
| Interest burden | 0.95x | 0.90x | 0.82x | 0.88x | 0.93x |
| Operating margindriver | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 11.5% |
| Asset turnover | 1.46x | 1.43x | 1.50x | 1.58x | 1.54x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.41x | 1.51x | 1.52x | 1.41x | 1.34x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 14.4% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 16.5% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 12.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 16.7% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 2.01x | 1.76x | 1.65x | 2.48x | 3.22x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 1.03x | 0.87x | 0.81x | 1.39x | 1.73x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.23x | 0.20x | 0.21x | 0.52x | 0.58x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 7.9 T | Rp 7.7 T | Rp 7.2 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 17 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.25x | 0.35x | 0.35x | 0.28x | 0.20x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.41x | 0.51x | 0.52x | 0.41x | 0.34x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.18x | 0.23x | 0.23x | 0.20x | 0.15x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 7.3 T | Rp 7.2 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 2.2 T |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 20.09x | 10.36x | 5.69x | 8.18x | 14.53x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.41x | 1.51x | 1.52x | 1.41x | 1.34x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 15.9% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 11.5% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 5.8 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 7.4 T | Rp 9.4 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 13.3% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 10.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 12.3% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 14.4% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 16.5% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.79x | 0.85x | 0.77x | 0.71x | 0.75x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.95x | 0.90x | 0.82x | 0.88x | 0.93x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 12.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 16.7% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 1.46x | 1.43x | 1.50x | 1.58x | 1.54x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 5.68x | 5.45x | 5.74x | 6.06x | 5.07x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 31.45x | 36.62x | 36.08x | 31.98x | 26.62x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 21.08x | 23.49x | 23.36x | 31.39x | 23.97x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 64.3 days | 67.0 days | 63.5 days | 60.3 days | 72.0 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 11.6 days | 10.0 days | 10.1 days | 11.4 days | 13.7 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 17.3 days | 15.5 days | 15.6 days | 11.6 days | 15.2 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 58.6 days | 61.5 days | 58.0 days | 60.1 days | 70.5 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | -Rp 685 M | -Rp 862 M | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 4.0 T |
Price Rp 3,290 · market cap Rp 54 T
| Multiple | CPIN | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.56x | 6.24x | +53% |
| P/B | 1.58x | 1.34x | +18% |
| P/S | 0.76x | 0.41x | +85% |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.96x | 4.82x | +23% |
| EV/EBIT | 6.91x | 5.76x | +20% |
| EV/Sales | 0.79x | 0.57x | +39% |
| FCF Yield | 7.49% | 10.18% | -26% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.28% | 6.51% | -50% |
Only 3 peers are covered here, so the median is itself one of the members. A 0% gap can simply mean CPIN sits at the median.
EV = mkt cap Rp 54 T + debt Rp 6.7 T − cash Rp 4.5 T + minority interest Rp 15 M = Rp 56 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 9.4%/yr FCF growth (6.2% at 12.0% to 12.3% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: FCF n/m (sign flip) · 8.1% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.81 → 0.89 | Farming/Agriculture (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.12 |
| Cost of equity | 13.19% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 8.40% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 23.1% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 12.45% | 89% E × CoE + 11% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 8.1% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 8.1%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 8.8% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 2.0% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 1.9% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 2.0% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 20.0% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 76 T | Rp 82 T | Rp 86 T | Rp 89 T | Rp 92 T | Rp 94 T |
| EBIT | Rp 6.7 T | Rp 7.2 T | Rp 7.5 T | Rp 7.8 T | Rp 8.0 T | Rp 8.2 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 5.5 T | Rp 5.8 T | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 6.2 T | Rp 6.3 T |
| + D&A | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.8 T |
| − Capex | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.8 T |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 871 M | Rp 674 M | Rp 448 M | Rp 459 M |
| FCFF | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 5.0 T | Rp 5.4 T | Rp 5.8 T | Rp 5.9 T |
| PV | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 33 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 17 T + PV(TV) Rp 33 T = Rp 50 T · TV 66% of EV · − net debt Rp 2.2 T − minority Rp 15 M
Model output: Rp 2,914/share (-11% vs price Rp 3,290)· exit-multiple check (4.8x): Rp 2,521
Under these assumptions the model lands 11% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 11.5% | 12.5% | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 3,143 | 2,818 | 2,550 |
| 2.5% | 3,266 | 2,914 | 2,626 |
| 3.0% | 3,405 | 3,020 | 2,709 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 52 T | Rp 57 T | Rp 62 T | Rp 67 T | Rp 71 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 43 T | Rp 49 T | Rp 53 T | Rp 57 T | Rp 58 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 8.2 T | Rp 7.9 T | Rp 8.2 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 13 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 8.1 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 240 M | Rp 367 M | Rp 643 M | Rp 732 M | Rp 560 M |
| Net Income | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 5.6 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 5.6 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 985 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.3 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 4.5 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.7 T |
| Inventory | Rp 7.7 T | Rp 9.0 T | Rp 9.3 T | Rp 9.4 T | Rp 11 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 16 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 21 T | Rp 25 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 35 T | Rp 40 T | Rp 41 T | Rp 43 T | Rp 46 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.4 T |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 7.8 T | Rp 10 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 8.6 T | Rp 7.6 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 10 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 12 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 6.3 T | Rp 9.3 T | Rp 9.6 T | Rp 8.5 T | Rp 6.7 T |
| Total Equity | Rp 25 T | Rp 26 T | Rp 27 T | Rp 30 T | Rp 34 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 25 T | Rp 26 T | Rp 27 T | Rp 30 T | Rp 34 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 4.3 T | Rp 5.8 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 775 M | Rp 1.7 T |
CPIN gross margin: 15.9 % (2021) → 13.8 % (2022) → 13.3 % (2023) → 15.9 % (2024) → 18.2 % (2025). OPM: 9.3 % → 6.7 % → 5.9 % → 8.9 % → 11.5 %. Net margin: 7.0 % → 5.1 % → 3.8 % → 5.5 % → 8.0 %. ROE: 14.4 % → 11.1 % → 8.6 % → 12.3 % → 16.5 %. ROIC: 12.9 % → 9.6 % → 8.2 % → 12.3 % → 16.7 %. D/E: 0.25 → 0.35 → 0.35 → 0.28 → 0.20. FCF (T IDR): −0.69 → −0.86 → +1.83 → +3.53 → +4.04. Interest coverage: 20.1× → 10.4× → 5.7× → 8.2× → 14.5×. Asset turnover: 1.46 → 1.43 → 1.50 → 1.58 → 1.54×. The FCF swing from −IDR 0.86 T (2022) to +IDR 4.04 T (2025) is the defining signal: when supply-demand balances in poultry, CPIN's integrated model generates massive cash. The D/E deleveraging (0.35 → 0.20) over 2023–2025 via FCF surplus leaves the balance sheet clean for the next capex cycle. IC recovery from 5.7× (2023 stress) to 14.5× (2025) confirms the downcycle was cyclical, not structural.
Corn (~60–65 % of feed COGS) is procured domestically (price influenced by Bulog/government import quota policy) and from imports. Government corn import quota restrictions, designed to support domestic corn farmers, periodically create supply shortfalls that spike CPIN's input cost. Soybean meal priced at CBOT (US/Brazil): global market with no local price lever. CPIN has no ability to lock long-term corn prices domestically.
Implication → Corn policy is the single most important earnings variable outside CPIN's control. The 2022–2023 margin collapse was primarily corn-driven. CPIN's scale gives it preferential Bulog allocation but cannot escape the price shock.
DOC and live broiler: sold at publicly quoted farm-gate prices; no individual buyer leverage, but CPIN is a price-maker for DOC (given its ~35 % market share). So Good / consumer branded: retailer (Hypermart, Transmart, Alfamart, Indomaret) has shelf-space leverage, but So Good brand demand pull provides countervailing power. QSR (KFC/McDonald's): large volume contracts but these customers also provide volume certainty.
Implication → CPIN's DOC market share creates some market-maker power in pricing: unique among poultry integrators. So Good brand is the structural margin premium.
Full vertical integration (feed + GP/PS + DOC + broiler + processing + brand + QSR supply) requires IDR 20+ T capex and 10+ years. However, partial entrants (Malindo Feedmill, Sierad Produce) have successfully built integrated poultry businesses. CP Group's global genetics and feed formulation IP (transferred to CPIN) is a knowledge moat new entrants cannot easily replicate.
Implication → CPIN's scale and CP Group IP are durable entry barriers at the full-integration level. However, partial integration remains accessible to well-capitalised entrants: JPFA and Malindo prove this.
Chicken is Indonesia's most affordable primary protein at current income levels (~IDR 35,000–45,000/kg farm gate). Beef is 3–5× the price. Tempe/tahu compete at lower price points but are different use occasions. Eggs (CPIN layer) have few substitutes in their use cases. Fish competes in some meal occasions but CPIN's So Good convenience processing is a different value proposition from raw fish.
Implication → Demand for CPIN's core products is structurally growing with Indonesia's income and urbanisation. The risk is supply-side (DOC cycle) not demand-side substitution.
JPFA is the #2 with identical integration model but higher leverage and weaker brand. Malindo Feedmill (#3, Malaysian Capital) competes primarily in feed and DOC. Sierad Produce is a smaller integrated player. In commodity DOC and broiler, all players compete on price: differentiation is impossible. In branded processed (So Good vs. Kanzler), CPIN has the consumer share advantage. The DOC oversupply cycle (when breeder investment gets ahead of demand) creates periodic industry-wide margin destruction affecting all players equally.
Implication → CPIN's lower leverage (D/E 0.20 vs. JPFA 0.59) and stronger So Good brand provide structural advantage in industry downturns: it can sustain operations and invest in brand while leveraged competitors retrench.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's vertically integrated poultry-feed duopoly (CPIN + JPFA) controls grandparent stock, feed, DOC, and live bird, but is caught between import-dependent input costs and commodity-priced chicken output.