Equal · Financial Report

Golden Energy Mines

GEMS/FY2021–FY2025/Educational Analysis/USD/Data source · 2026-07-09

ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Tax burden	0.75x	0.75x	0.75x	0.76x	0.72x
Interest burden	0.98x	0.99x	0.99x	0.99x	0.98x
Operating margindriver	29.7%	31.4%	23.9%	23.4%	15.0%
Asset turnover	1.91x	2.59x	2.21x	2.18x	2.02x
Leverage (equity mult.)	2.62x	2.02x	1.98x	1.87x	1.69x
= Return on Equity (consolidated)	110.0%	121.9%	78.2%	71.7%	36.4%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	111.8%	123.1%	79.0%	72.3%	35.9%

Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.

Liquidity

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities)	1.02x	1.53x	1.37x	1.35x	1.50x
Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities)	0.95x	1.44x	1.30x	1.31x	1.40x
Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities)	0.46x	0.70x	0.52x	0.63x	0.29x
Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities)	$ 8.9 M	$ 251 M	$ 227 M	$ 184 M	$ 194 M

Leverage & Solvency

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity)	0.36x	0.24x	0.38x	0.43x	0.19x
Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity)	1.62x	1.02x	0.98x	0.87x	0.69x
Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets)	0.14x	0.12x	0.19x	0.23x	0.11x
Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash)	-$ 79 M	-$ 197 M	-$ 65 M	-$ 44 M	$ 22 M
Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense)	61.79x	102.55x	93.33x	109.57x	58.81x
Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity)	2.62x	2.02x	1.98x	1.87x	1.69x

Profitability

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue)	47.3%	44.7%	39.1%	40.4%	31.5%
Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue)	29.7%	31.4%	23.9%	23.4%	15.0%
Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue)	21.9%	23.3%	17.9%	17.5%	10.7%
EBITDA(EBIT + D&A)	$ 487 M	$ 934 M	$ 753 M	$ 680 M	$ 404 M
EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue)	30.7%	32.0%	25.9%	25.1%	16.7%
Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets)	42.0%	60.3%	39.5%	38.2%	21.6%
Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners))	110.5%	123.3%	79.3%	72.7%	36.8%
Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax)	0.75x	0.75x	0.75x	0.76x	0.72x
Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT)	0.98x	0.99x	0.99x	0.99x	0.98x
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	111.8%	123.1%	79.0%	72.3%	35.9%

Operations & Efficiency

Turnover	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets)	1.91x	2.59x	2.21x	2.18x	2.02x
Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory)	27.81x	37.82x	43.74x	69.70x	41.32x
Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables)	11.29x	15.10x	9.94x	13.35x	10.06x
Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables)	5.17x	6.36x	5.23x	6.50x	5.42x

Conversion Period	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS)	13.1 days	9.7 days	8.3 days	5.2 days	8.8 days
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue)	32.3 days	24.2 days	36.7 days	27.3 days	36.3 days
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS)	70.6 days	57.4 days	69.8 days	56.1 days	67.3 days
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO)	-25.2 days	-23.6 days	-24.7 days	-23.6 days	-22.2 days

Cash Flow

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex)	$ 367 M	$ 690 M	$ 301 M	$ 466 M	$ 228 M

Valuation

price as-of 2026-07-31fundamentals: FY2025FX 18,058 IDR/USD (2026-07-31)

Price Rp 6,478 · market cap Rp 38 T ($ 2.1 B at the cited rate; statements are filed in USD)

Multiple	GEMS	Peer median	vs median
P/E	8.17x	16.25x(15/16)	-50%
P/B	3.00x	1.68x	+78%
P/S	0.87x	1.92x	-55%
EV/EBITDA	5.30x	10.31x	-49%
EV/EBIT	5.89x	14.25x	-59%
EV/Sales	0.89x	2.27x	-61%
FCF Yield	10.79%	0.01%	+102,394%
Dividend Yield	21.00%	5.27%(11/16)	+299%

EV = mkt cap $ 2.1 B + debt $ 134 M − cash $ 112 M + minority interest $ 6.1 M = $ 2.1 B

What the price implies

At today’s price, the market is paying for -0.6%/yr FCF growth (-4.0% at 9.3% to 2.3% at 13.3% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -11.2% FCF · 11.1% revenue.

Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 9.3–13.3% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.

Forward DCF (glass-box)

This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.

Cyclical normalization: Commodity/cyclical name: the trailing years are a sample drawn from the price cycle, not a trend. Defaults are therefore normalized, using the full-window mean margin with no cycle-position growth extrapolation. That normalized margin is itself the embedded commodity-price assumption.

Assumption	Value	Basis
Rf (risk-free)	4.66%	US 10Y Treasury, 30 Jul 2026
ERP (Rm − Rf)	6.69%	Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%)
β	0.96 → 1.01	Metals & Mining (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.06
Cost of equity	11.39%	Rf + β × ERP
Cost of debt	6.68%	median interest coverage 93.3x (EBIT ÷ interest, FY2021–FY2025) implies a Aaa/AAA synthetic rating and a 0.40% default spread, over a 6.28% base (US 10Y 4.66% + Indonesia's 1.62% sovereign spread). Its BOOK rate is 4.6%, which is what past debt actually costs; the gap is legacy or subsidised borrowing, not the rate on new debt. Spread table: A. Damodaran, Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread, January 2026 data update (large non-financial service firms)
Tax rate	24.9%	median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest)
WACC	11.01%	94% E × CoE + 6% D × Kd × (1 − t)
Revenue growth (yr 1, fading)	2.5%	terminal growth from year 1, cyclical normalization: the delivered 4-yr CAGR (11.1%) reflects cycle position, not a trend
EBIT margin	24.7%	full-cycle mean EBIT margin, FY2021–FY2025 (cyclical normalization: this margin is the embedded commodity-price assumption)
D&A / revenue	1.8%	mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs
Capex / revenue	2.6%	mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years. The terminal year instead FUNDS ITS OWN GROWTH: in stable growth g = reinvestment rate x return on capital, and returns are assumed to converge to the 11.0% cost of capital, so the perpetuity reinvests 22.7% of NOPAT and terminal capex is 6.0% of revenue against depreciation of 1.8%. Both simpler rules are wrong in opposite directions: holding the historical ratio charges a build phase in perpetuity, while setting capex equal to depreciation hands the company 2.5% growth forever for no new capital. Because returns converge to the cost of capital, terminal growth here is value-neutral
ΔNWC / Δrevenue	1.0%	median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP)
Terminal growth	2.5%	BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%)

Growth path

year 1 → fading to terminal over 5 yrs2.5%

EBIT margin24.7%

WACC11.0%

Terminal growth2.5%

Explicit years5

FCFF drivers

FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − capex − ΔNWC

Each default is the company's own historical average, which describes the phase it happened to be in. Switch a driver to Per-year when that phase is ending: a company mid-build does not spend at its peak rate forever, and one in a capex pause does not stay there. The terminal year keeps its own ratios, so a taper you enter here changes the explicit window and leaves the perpetuity coherent.

Capex

% of revenue2.6%

D&A

% of revenue1.8%

ΔNWC

% of the CHANGE in revenue1.0%

Year	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	T∞
Growth	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Revenue	$ 2.5 B	$ 2.5 B	$ 2.6 B	$ 2.7 B	$ 2.7 B	$ 2.8 B
EBIT	$ 611 M	$ 626 M	$ 642 M	$ 658 M	$ 674 M	$ 691 M
NOPAT	$ 459 M	$ 470 M	$ 482 M	$ 494 M	$ 506 M	$ 519 M
+ D&A	$ 45 M	$ 46 M	$ 47 M	$ 48 M	$ 50 M	$ 51 M
− Capex	$ 64 M	$ 66 M	$ 67 M	$ 69 M	$ 71 M	$ 168 M
− ΔNWC	$ 591 K	$ 606 K	$ 621 K	$ 637 K	$ 653 K	$ 669 K
FCFF	$ 439 M	$ 450 M	$ 461 M	$ 473 M	$ 484 M	$ 401 M
PV	$ 395 M	$ 365 M	$ 337 M	$ 311 M	$ 287 M	$ 2.8 B

Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5 · equity = EV − net debt − minority · per share = equity ÷ shares outstanding

EV = PV(explicit) $ 1.7 B + PV(TV) $ 2.8 B = $ 4.5 B · TV 62% of EV · − net debt $ 22 M − minority $ 6.1 M = equity $ 4.5 B ÷ shares outstanding · per share is in USD, shown in IDR at 18,058

Model output: Rp 13,709/share (+112% vs price Rp 6,478)· exit-multiple check (10.3x): Rp 18,724

Under these assumptions the model lands 112% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.

Sensitivity (per share, Rp)

g \ WACC	10.0%	11.0%	12.0%
2.0%	14,621	13,075	11,833
2.5%	15,439	13,709	12,338
3.0%	16,373	14,421	12,898

Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.

Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.

Macro backdropfull backdrop + sensitivity map →

BI Rate 5.75%IDR/USD 18,05810Y government bond yield 7.26%Inflation 3.34%(as-of 2026-07-31)

Coal ↑(H)Nickel ↑(H)Rupiah weaker(H)Oil ↑(M)

Income Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	$ 1.6 B	$ 2.9 B	$ 2.9 B	$ 2.7 B	$ 2.4 B
Cost of Goods Sold	$ 836 M	$ 1.6 B	$ 1.8 B	$ 1.6 B	$ 1.7 B
Gross Profit	$ 750 M	$ 1.3 B	$ 1.1 B	$ 1.1 B	$ 759 M
Operating Income (EBIT)	$ 471 M	$ 917 M	$ 694 M	$ 633 M	$ 363 M
Interest Expense	$ 7.6 M	$ 8.9 M	$ 7.4 M	$ 5.8 M	$ 6.2 M
Net Income	$ 348 M	$ 680 M	$ 518 M	$ 474 M	$ 258 M
Net Income Attributable to Owners	$ 348 M	$ 680 M	$ 518 M	$ 474 M	$ 258 M
Depreciation & Amortization	$ 16 M	$ 17 M	$ 59 M	$ 47 M	$ 40 M

Balance Sheet

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Equivalents	$ 194 M	$ 330 M	$ 318 M	$ 327 M	$ 112 M
Accounts Receivable	$ 140 M	$ 193 M	$ 292 M	$ 203 M	$ 240 M
Inventory	$ 30 M	$ 43 M	$ 40 M	$ 23 M	$ 40 M
Current Assets	$ 434 M	$ 724 M	$ 842 M	$ 706 M	$ 582 M
Total Assets	$ 829 M	$ 1.1 B	$ 1.3 B	$ 1.2 B	$ 1.2 B
Accounts Payable	$ 162 M	$ 254 M	$ 338 M	$ 248 M	$ 305 M
Current Liabilities	$ 425 M	$ 473 M	$ 615 M	$ 522 M	$ 388 M
Total Liabilities	$ 513 M	$ 571 M	$ 649 M	$ 578 M	$ 488 M
Total Interest-Bearing Debt	$ 114 M	$ 133 M	$ 253 M	$ 283 M	$ 134 M
Total Equity	$ 316 M	$ 558 M	$ 663 M	$ 661 M	$ 709 M
Equity Attributable to Owners	$ 315 M	$ 552 M	$ 654 M	$ 652 M	$ 703 M

Cash Flow Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	$ 373 M	$ 700 M	$ 391 M	$ 572 M	$ 247 M
Capital Expenditure	$ 6.8 M	$ 9.9 M	$ 90 M	$ 105 M	$ 19 M

Company Deep Analysis

Reviewed: 2026-07-31

Analyst Verdict

GEMS gross margin: 47.3 % (2021) → 44.7 % (2022) → 39.1 % (2023) → 40.4 % (2024) → 31.5 % (2025). OPM: 29.7 % → 31.4 % → 23.9 % → 23.4 % → 15.0 %. Net margin: 21.9 % → 23.3 % → 17.9 % → 17.5 % → 10.7 %. ROE: 110.5 % → 123.3 % → 79.3 % → 72.7 % → 36.8 %; the highest ROE of any mining-metals name tracked in this project, even at its 2025 trough. ROIC tracks ROE closely throughout (111.8 % → 123.1 % → 79.0 % → 72.3 % → 35.9 %), implying very little leverage contribution to the return. Asset turnover: 1.91× → 2.59× → 2.21× → 2.18× → 2.02×; roughly double every other coal peer in this roster (ITMG/BYAN/ADRO/INDY/HRUM/AADI all run well under 1×), the clearest sign of a genuinely more capital-light, trading-inclusive model. D/E: 0.36× → 0.24× → 0.38× → 0.43× → 0.19×; L/E: 1.62× → 1.02× → 0.98× → 0.87× → 0.69×. Net debt: −$79.2 M (net cash, 2021) → −$196.6 M (net cash, 2022 peak) → −$65.4 M → −$44.3 M → +$22.3 M (2025, flipped to a small net-debt position). Interest coverage: 61.8× → 102.6× → 93.3× → 109.6× (2024 peak) → 58.8× (2025); never dropped below 58× in five years, the strongest coverage of any coal name tracked here. FCF (USD): $366.6 M → $689.9 M (2022 peak) → $301.0 M → $466.4 M → $227.7 M; positive every year. Revenue (USD): $1.59 B → $2.92 B → $2.90 B → $2.71 B → $2.41 B. The shape: the same coal-price-driven margin decline every peer shows, but starting from, and returning to, a far stronger ROE/turnover/coverage base than any other name in this cohort.

Business Model

GEMS mines and trades thermal coal through five mining-permit subsidiaries: flagship PT Borneo Indobara (BIB, South Kalimantan, an open-cast mine whose production grew roughly 10× in a decade; from ~4 Mt in 2014 to ~46 Mt in 2024), PT Barasentosa Lestari (South Sumatra), PT Kuansing Inti Makmur (Jambi), PT Trisula Kencana Sakti (Central Kalimantan) and PT Era Mitra Selaras (South/West Sumatra); together covering 66,204 hectares with ~0.84 Bt of potential reserves. As part of the Sinarmas Mining group, GEMS runs both Coal Mining and Coal Trading segments; the trading side is the key reason its asset turnover (2.0×–2.6×) runs roughly double every other coal peer tracked here: trading requires much less fixed capital per dollar of revenue than pure mining.

Segments

Mining and trading are not independently broken out in the ratios available, but the asset-turnover signature (2.0×–2.6×, roughly double ITMG/BYAN/ADRO/INDY/HRUM/AADI) is the clearest evidence of a trading-heavy revenue mix layered on top of Borneo Indobara's mining output. Unlike HRUM (coal-to-nickel pivot) or ITMG (managed decline), GEMS's story is pure operating leverage on the same coal-price cycle every peer faces: the underlying mine-and-trade model itself has not changed, only the price environment around it.

Value Chain & Positioning

Overburden removal → open-cast mining (BIB, South Kalimantan; smaller concessions in Jambi/South Sumatra/Central Kalimantan) → coal blending and grading → domestic sale (DMO) or export, supplemented by a coal-trading operation that buys and resells third-party coal, adding revenue without a proportional increase in fixed mining assets: the source of GEMS's unusually high asset turnover.

Competitive Forces (Porter’s 5)

Supplier powerLow

How much leverage input/funding providers have over pricing.

GEMS owns its coal concessions across five subsidiaries; the trading segment sources third-party coal competitively across many counterparties, so no single supplier has meaningful leverage.

Implication → Cost pressure is benchmark-price and strip-ratio driven for the mining side, and margin-driven for the trading side: supplier concentration is not a real risk here.

Buyer powerHigh

How much leverage customers have to push prices down.

Thermal coal is benchmark-priced: GEMS is a price-taker on both its mined and traded tonnage, the same dynamic as every listed coal peer.

Implication → Revenue is fully cycle-driven; GEMS's real lever is its capital-light trading model, which lets it maintain far higher returns than peers through the same price cycle, not immunity from it.

Threat of new entryLow

How easily new competitors can enter the market.

Standard IUP/RKAB/AMDAL barriers protect the mining side; the trading side requires working-capital access and counterparty relationships rather than mining permits, a somewhat different (though still non-trivial) barrier.

Implication → GEMS's trading-driven capital efficiency is a genuine, if replicable-in-principle, business-model advantage, not a regulatory moat.

Threat of substitutesHigh

Risk that alternative products/services replace demand.

The sector's standard high substitution risk applies (LNG/solar/wind/hydro/geothermal, post-2030 demand decline): GEMS has no diversification hedge disclosed here, unlike HRUM's nickel pivot or ITMG's early clean-energy dabbling.

Implication → GEMS's strong current returns do not address the sector's long-run substitution risk: the trading-heavy model earns more per unit of coal cycle, it does not extend the coal cycle itself.

Competitive rivalryHigh

Intensity of competition among existing players.

GEMS competes on the same seaborne thermal market as Australia, Russia, South Africa and domestic peers (PTBA, ADRO, BYAN, ITMG, INDY, HRUM, AADI) for mined tonnage, plus a separate set of trading counterparties for its Coal Trading segment.

Implication → Despite crowded rivalry on both fronts, GEMS's ROE and coverage numbers show it is currently winning that competition more decisively than any other tracked coal name.

Moat / Competitive Edge

GEMS has no pricing moat: thermal coal is benchmark-priced whether mined or traded. Its genuine advantage is capital efficiency: asset turnover of 1.9×–2.6× is roughly double every other coal peer tracked here, driving ROE that peaked at 123.3 % (2022) and never fell below 36.8 % even at the 2025 trough; the highest ROE of any mining-metals name in this project. Interest coverage never dropped below 58× in five years, the strongest balance sheet of any coal name here. This is not immunity from the coal cycle: margins compressed on the same schedule as every peer (GM 47.3 % → 31.5 %), but GEMS converts that cycle into stronger returns than its peers, year after year, via its trading-inclusive model rather than any structural cost advantage.

Key Drivers & Sensitivities

Trading-Driven Asset Turnover
Asset turnover of 2.0×–2.6× (versus well under 1× for every other coal peer tracked) is the structural reason GEMS's ROE runs 2-3× higher than peers at any point in the cycle. This is a business-model characteristic, not a one-off: it has held across all 5 years regardless of the price cycle.
Thermal Coal Benchmark
Revenue fell from $2.92 B (2022 peak) to $2.41 B (2025) as coal prices normalised: the same benchmark cycle every peer faced. GEMS's margins compress and expand with this cycle exactly like its peers; only the level (not the direction) of returns differs.
Borneo Indobara Production Scale
BIB's production grew ~10× in a decade (4 Mt in 2014 to ~46 Mt in 2024) and remains the largest single contributor to group volume. Continued production growth at BIB, versus a plateau or decline, is a first-order determinant of future mining-segment revenue independent of price.
Net Debt Position Turn
Net debt flipped from deep net cash (−$196.6 M at the 2022 peak) to a small net-debt position (+$22.3 M) by 2025: a real but modest re-leveraging, nowhere near the scale seen at INDY or HRUM, but worth watching given the coal benchmark is still normalising.

Linkages

GEMS ties into the same seaborne thermal-coal market as PTBA, ADRO, BYAN, ITMG, INDY, HRUM and AADI, competing for the same India/China/ASEAN utility buyers under the same DMO/RKAB regime. As part of Sinarmas Mining, it links to one of Indonesia's largest conglomerates (Sinar Mas Group, which also controls BSDE in property and other listed entities across the roster). Its Coal Trading segment additionally links it to a broader set of third-party coal counterparties that pure-mining peers do not deal with directly.

Recent Developments

FY2025 revenue of USD 2.41bn was down 10.8% while net income of USD 258.2m fell 45.5%, a far steeper drop than the top line because margin carried it: net margin 17.5% to 10.7% and operating margin 23.4% to 15.0%. The balance sheet turned in the same year. GEMS held net cash in each of the first four years, USD 44.3m in FY2024, then closed FY2025 with USD 22.3m of net debt, even as debt to equity fell to 0.19×. ROE remains extraordinary at 36.8%, but that is under a third of the 123.3% reached in FY2022, and it rests on an unusually small equity base rather than on unusual margins.

Regulation

Standard coal-sector regulation: IUP concessions across five subsidiaries, RKAB annual production quotas (ESDM), the 25 % DMO obligation to PLN at a capped price, coal royalties, and AMDAL environmental/mine-rehabilitation obligations. The Coal Trading segment additionally operates under general commodity-trading rules rather than mining-specific permits.

ESG & Sustainability

Environmental: thermal coal carries the sector's highest-carbon liability (Scope 3 combustion) across five mining concessions, plus mine rehabilitation obligations, most materially at the large-scale Borneo Indobara operation. Social: community relations and employment across South Kalimantan, Jambi, South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan operating areas. Governance: Sinarmas Mining group structure with an established multi-decade operating history (founded 1997); no diversification-driven ESG narrative here (unlike HRUM/ITMG's nickel/clean-energy moves); GEMS's ESG profile is that of a pure-play thermal coal miner-trader.

Risks

Thermal coal benchmark decline: revenue fell from $2.92 B (2022 peak) to $2.41 B (2025), the same cyclical pressure every coal peer faces
Net debt flipped from net cash to a small net-debt position during 2025: a real, if modest, re-leveraging trend worth monitoring if the benchmark weakens further
No disclosed diversification hedge against long-run thermal-coal substitution risk (LNG/renewables, post-2030 demand decline): unlike HRUM's nickel pivot
Trading-segment exposure (not independently broken out here) introduces counterparty and commodity-trading risk beyond pure mining exposure
ROE, while still among the highest in the roster and behind only UNVR, CUAN and SIDO, has fallen sharply from its 2022 peak (123.3 % → 36.8 %): the trend direction matters as much as the absolute level

Outlook & What to Watch

Base: coal benchmark stabilises near current levels → margins stay compressed versus 2021-2022 but ROE remains well above every other coal peer given the structural asset-turnover advantage; net debt drifts modestly higher without becoming a real risk. Bull: a coal-price recovery + continued Borneo Indobara volume growth → ROE and FCF re-expand toward 2022-2023 levels. Bear: benchmark weakens further while the small net-debt position grows → coverage compresses from its currently very strong base (58×+), though it would take a large multi-year decline to approach the fragility seen at INDY or HRUM. GEMS is best read as the coal cohort's capital-efficiency leader: its trading-inclusive model consistently converts the same industry cycle into stronger returns than its mining-only peers. (Interpretation, not a forecast.)

Key KPIs

ROE vs Coal Cohort: 36.8% (2025 trough), peaked 123.3% (2022) -- highest of any mining-metals name tracked
Asset Turnover: 2.0x-2.6x, roughly double every other coal peer -- the structural driver of GEMS's return advantage
Interest Coverage: Never below 58x in 5 years -- the strongest coal-name balance sheet tracked here
Borneo Indobara Production: ~46 Mt/yr (2024), up ~10x in a decade -- the group's largest single volume driver
Net Debt Position: Flipped from -$196.6M net cash (2022) to +$22.3M net debt (2025)

Sources

Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.