Equal · Financial Report

Medikaloka Hermina

HEAL/FY2021–FY2025/Educational Analysis/IDR/Data source · 2026-06-20

ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Tax burden	0.61x	0.67x	0.65x	0.61x	0.59x
Interest burden	0.92x	0.76x	0.83x	0.83x	0.75x
Operating margindriver	30.1%	12.0%	14.1%	15.8%	13.6%
Asset turnover	0.77x	0.65x	0.66x	0.64x	0.60x
Leverage (equity mult.)	1.71x	1.62x	1.69x	1.80x	1.65x
= Return on Equity (consolidated)	22.5%	6.4%	8.4%	9.1%	6.0%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	22.5%	6.9%	8.0%	7.6%	5.9%

Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.

Liquidity

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities)	1.52x	1.05x	1.26x	1.13x	1.22x
Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities)	1.47x	0.99x	1.18x	1.05x	1.13x
Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities)	0.80x	0.45x	0.55x	0.35x	0.38x
Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities)	Rp 849 M	Rp 81 M	Rp 397 M	Rp 229 M	Rp 428 M

Leverage & Solvency

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity)	0.38x	0.37x	0.43x	0.55x	0.45x
Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity)	0.71x	0.62x	0.69x	0.80x	0.65x
Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets)	0.22x	0.23x	0.26x	0.31x	0.27x
Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash)	Rp 380 M	Rp 962 M	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 2.6 T	Rp 2.5 T
Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense)	12.33x	4.20x	5.86x	5.92x	4.06x
Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity)	1.71x	1.62x	1.69x	1.80x	1.65x

Profitability

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue)	47.4%	32.0%	33.2%	34.6%	32.0%
Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue)	30.1%	12.0%	14.1%	15.8%	13.6%
Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue)	17.0%	6.1%	7.6%	8.0%	6.0%
EBITDA(EBIT + D&A)	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.5 T	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 1.8 T
EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue)	37.4%	23.2%	25.2%	25.9%	24.8%
Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets)	13.2%	3.9%	5.0%	5.1%	3.6%
Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners))	30.1%	8.7%	11.3%	12.0%	7.6%
Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax)	0.61x	0.67x	0.65x	0.61x	0.59x
Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT)	0.92x	0.76x	0.83x	0.83x	0.75x
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	22.5%	6.9%	8.0%	7.6%	5.9%

Operations & Efficiency

Turnover	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets)	0.77x	0.65x	0.66x	0.64x	0.60x
Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory)	32.61x	33.32x	32.90x	31.84x	28.72x
Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables)	5.78x	5.88x	6.53x	5.60x	5.26x
Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables)	9.51x	11.83x	10.86x	10.15x	10.45x

Conversion Period	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS)	11.2 days	11.0 days	11.1 days	11.5 days	12.7 days
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue)	63.1 days	62.1 days	55.9 days	65.1 days	69.4 days
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS)	38.4 days	30.9 days	33.6 days	36.0 days	34.9 days
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO)	36.0 days	42.2 days	33.3 days	40.6 days	47.2 days

Cash Flow

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex)	Rp 643 M	-Rp 261 M	-Rp 272 M	-Rp 1.1 T	-Rp 612 M

Valuation

price as-of 2026-07-31fundamentals: FY2025

Price Rp 800 · market cap Rp 12 T

Multiple	HEAL	Peer median	vs median
P/E	28.54x	25.68x	+11%
P/B	2.16x	2.95x	-27%
P/S	1.72x	2.22x	-23%
EV/EBITDA	9.22x	11.27x	-18%
EV/EBIT	16.82x	16.82x	0%
EV/Sales	2.28x	2.28x	0%
FCF Yield	-4.99%	2.34%	-313%
Dividend Yield	1.31%	1.87%(2/3)	-30%

Only 3 peers are covered here, so the median is itself one of the members. A 0% gap can simply mean HEAL sits at the median.

EV = mkt cap Rp 12 T + debt Rp 3.2 T − cash Rp 728 M + minority interest Rp 1.5 T = Rp 16 T

What the price implies

not computable: negative or zero base-year FCF. Shown as-is rather than estimated.

Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.

Forward DCF (glass-box)

This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.

Mechanical DCF suppressed: on these default assumptions the modelled enterprise value falls BELOW net debt and minority interests, so the equity residual is negative. Equity cannot be worth less than nothing, so no per-share figure is published here: read it as the model saying the debt claims consume the whole enterprise at this discount rate and growth path, which is itself the signal. The components are shown below so the arithmetic stays checkable, and the sliders let you test what it would take to change the answer.

Assumption	Value	Basis
Rf (risk-free)	7.26%	Indonesia 10Y government bond, re-verified 31 Jul 2026
ERP (Rm − Rf)	6.69%	Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%)
β	0.55 → 0.64	Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.26
Cost of equity	11.57%	Rf + β × ERP
Cost of debt	7.96%	median interest coverage 5.9x (EBIT ÷ interest, FY2021–FY2025) implies a A1/A+ synthetic rating and a 0.70% default spread, over a 7.26% base (Indonesia 10Y 7.26%, already the sovereign rate). Its BOOK rate is 7.4%, which is what past debt actually costs; the gap is legacy or subsidised borrowing, not the rate on new debt. Spread table: A. Damodaran, Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread, January 2026 data update (large non-financial service firms)
Tax rate	35.0%	median effective rate FY2021–FY2025 computed to 38.6%, CLAMPED to 35%: above that ceiling the pretax approximation is carrying minority interests, which are already deducted separately from enterprise value, rather than tax
WACC	10.24%	79% E × CoE + 21% D × Kd × (1 − t)
Revenue growth (yr 1, fading)	5.0%	delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 5.0%, fading linearly to terminal
EBIT margin	14.5%	mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs
D&A / revenue	10.8%	mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs
Capex / revenue	28.7%	mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years. The terminal year instead FUNDS ITS OWN GROWTH: in stable growth g = reinvestment rate x return on capital, and returns are assumed to converge to the 10.2% cost of capital, so the perpetuity reinvests 24.4% of NOPAT and terminal capex is 12.6% of revenue against depreciation of 10.8%. Both simpler rules are wrong in opposite directions: holding the historical ratio charges a build phase in perpetuity, while setting capex equal to depreciation hands the company 2.5% growth forever for no new capital. Because returns converge to the cost of capital, terminal growth here is value-neutral
ΔNWC / Δrevenue	20.7%	median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP)
Terminal growth	2.5%	BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%)

Growth path

year 1 → fading to terminal over 5 yrs5.0%

EBIT margin14.5%

WACC10.2%

Terminal growth2.5%

Explicit years5

FCFF drivers

FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − capex − ΔNWC

Each default is the company's own historical average, which describes the phase it happened to be in. Switch a driver to Per-year when that phase is ending: a company mid-build does not spend at its peak rate forever, and one in a capex pause does not stay there. The terminal year keeps its own ratios, so a taper you enter here changes the explicit window and leaves the perpetuity coherent.

Capex

% of revenue28.7%

D&A

% of revenue10.8%

ΔNWC

% of the CHANGE in revenue20.7%

Year	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	T∞
Growth	5.0%	4.4%	3.7%	3.1%	2.5%	2.5%
Revenue	Rp 7.5 T	Rp 7.8 T	Rp 8.1 T	Rp 8.4 T	Rp 8.6 T	Rp 8.8 T
EBIT	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.3 T
NOPAT	Rp 706 M	Rp 737 M	Rp 764 M	Rp 788 M	Rp 808 M	Rp 828 M
+ D&A	Rp 810 M	Rp 845 M	Rp 877 M	Rp 904 M	Rp 927 M	Rp 950 M
− Capex	Rp 2.1 T	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 2.5 T	Rp 1.1 T
− ΔNWC	Rp 74 M	Rp 68 M	Rp 61 M	Rp 52 M	Rp 43 M	Rp 44 M
FCFF	-Rp 706 M	-Rp 728 M	-Rp 745 M	-Rp 758 M	-Rp 767 M	Rp 626 M
PV	-Rp 640 M	-Rp 599 M	-Rp 556 M	-Rp 513 M	-Rp 471 M	Rp 5.0 T

Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5 · equity = EV − net debt − minority · per share = equity ÷ shares outstanding

EV = PV(explicit) -Rp 2.8 T + PV(TV) Rp 5.0 T = Rp 2.2 T · TV 227% of EV · − net debt Rp 2.5 T − minority Rp 1.5 T = equity -Rp 1.8 T ÷ shares outstanding

Model output: Rp -120/share (-115% vs price Rp 800)· exit-multiple check (11.3x): Rp 535

Under these assumptions the model lands 115% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.

Sensitivity (per share, Rp)

g \ WACC	9.2%	10.2%	11.2%
2.0%	-86	-139	-180
2.5%	-60	-120	-165
3.0%	-29	-98	-150

Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.

Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.

Macro backdropfull backdrop + sensitivity map →

BI Rate 5.75%IDR/USD 18,05810Y government bond yield 7.26%Inflation 3.34%(as-of 2026-07-31)

GDP/consumption ↑(M)Rupiah weaker(M)

Income Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	Rp 5.9 T	Rp 4.9 T	Rp 5.8 T	Rp 6.7 T	Rp 7.1 T
Cost of Goods Sold	Rp 3.1 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.9 T	Rp 4.4 T	Rp 4.9 T
Gross Profit	Rp 2.8 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.9 T	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 2.3 T
Operating Income (EBIT)	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 588 M	Rp 817 M	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 969 M
Interest Expense	Rp 143 M	Rp 140 M	Rp 140 M	Rp 179 M	Rp 238 M
Net Income	Rp 996 M	Rp 299 M	Rp 437 M	Rp 536 M	Rp 430 M
Net Income Attributable to Owners	Rp 996 M	Rp 299 M	Rp 437 M	Rp 536 M	Rp 430 M
Depreciation & Amortization	Rp 430 M	Rp 550 M	Rp 640 M	Rp 683 M	Rp 798 M

Balance Sheet

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Equivalents	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 775 M	Rp 855 M	Rp 643 M	Rp 728 M
Accounts Receivable	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 834 M	Rp 885 M	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.4 T
Inventory	Rp 95 M	Rp 100 M	Rp 117 M	Rp 138 M	Rp 169 M
Current Assets	Rp 2.5 T	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 2.0 T	Rp 2.0 T	Rp 2.4 T
Total Assets	Rp 7.6 T	Rp 7.6 T	Rp 8.8 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 12 T
Accounts Payable	Rp 324 M	Rp 282 M	Rp 356 M	Rp 433 M	Rp 464 M
Current Liabilities	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 1.9 T
Total Liabilities	Rp 3.1 T	Rp 2.9 T	Rp 3.6 T	Rp 4.7 T	Rp 4.7 T
Total Interest-Bearing Debt	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 3.2 T	Rp 3.2 T
Total Equity	Rp 4.4 T	Rp 4.7 T	Rp 5.2 T	Rp 5.9 T	Rp 7.2 T
Equity Attributable to Owners	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.4 T	Rp 3.9 T	Rp 4.5 T	Rp 5.7 T

Cash Flow Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	Rp 1.9 T	Rp 868 M	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.1 T
Capital Expenditure	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 1.7 T

Company Deep Analysis

Reviewed: 2026-07-31

Analyst Verdict

Hermina runs Indonesia’s largest hospital network by count (~50 hospitals, mother-and-child and general), serving a mass-market, BPJS-heavy patient base. It is the volume-and-expansion play: the thinnest hospital margins of the three in FY2025 (net 6.0%, against Siloam 8.7% and Mitra Keluarga 25.4%) and the lowest ROE (7.6%, down from 30.1% in FY2021), carried on leverage that rose from 0.38x debt to equity to a 0.55x peak in FY2024 before easing to 0.45x and negative free cash flow from an aggressive roll-out of new hospitals. The bet is scale and BPJS-driven volume in underserved regions, with each new hospital maturing into profit over time. This is the high-growth, high-investment hospital play, and the factors that move it are expansion execution, BPJS tariffs, and how quickly new hospitals mature.

Business Model

Indonesia’s largest hospital operator by number of hospitals (~50), built on a mother-and-child specialty heritage now broadened to general care. It serves a mass-market base with a high BPJS (national-insurance) mix, and grows through an aggressive, replicable hospital roll-out: often in underserved second-tier cities. Revenue is patient services; the model trades current margin/cash for network growth and BPJS volume.

Segments

Inpatient and outpatient services, with a mother-and-child core extended to general hospitals, skewed to BPJS patients. The high BPJS mix and mass-market positioning give the thinnest margins of the three (net 6.0% in FY2025) and the lowest ROE (7.6%); aggressive expansion drives leverage (0.38x rising to a 0.55x peak in FY2024, 0.45x in FY2025) and negative free cash flow.

Value Chain & Positioning

Capacity build-out (new hospitals, a standardised replicable model) → patient services (BPJS-weighted) → payment. HEAL’s margin pool is thin per patient (BPJS tariffs) but it plays a volume/scale game; the value case is building and maturing many hospitals, so near-term cash flow is negative by design.

Competitive Forces (Porter’s 5)

Supplier powerMedium

How much leverage input/funding providers have over pricing.

Doctors, nurses and equipment drive costs; the standardised model and scale aid procurement and staffing.

Implication → Cost discipline and staffing are key to making thin BPJS margins work.

Buyer powerHigh

How much leverage customers have to push prices down.

BPJS (the national insurer) sets tariffs (INA-CBG) for most of HEAL’s patients.

Implication → The dominant constraint: capped BPJS tariffs drive the sector’s thinnest margins (net ~6–8%).

Threat of new entryMedium

How easily new competitors can enter the market.

New hospitals need capital and licensing, but HEAL’s own model shows replicability.

Implication → HEAL exploits this with rapid roll-out; others can too.

Threat of substitutesLow

Risk that alternative products/services replace demand.

Limited substitutes for hospital care; public hospitals compete for BPJS patients.

Implication → Demand is defensive and BPJS-driven; public hospitals are the main alternative.

Competitive rivalryHigh

Intensity of competition among existing players.

Competes with Siloam, Mitra Keluarga and public hospitals for patients and doctors.

Implication → Pressures margins; HEAL differentiates on network reach and the mother-child niche.

Moat / Competitive Edge

Moderate. HEAL’s moat is the largest hospital footprint, a replicable build-out playbook, the mother-and-child specialty heritage and deep BPJS-volume reach into underserved regions. But the BPJS-heavy mass-market mix means thin margins, and the replicable model invites competition. The moat is scale-and-reach, not pricing power: the opposite end of the spectrum from premium MIKA.

Key Drivers & Sensitivities

Hospital expansion
The core growth engine: aggressive roll-out of new hospitals drives revenue, but is FCF-negative until they mature (the source of leverage and negative FCF).
BPJS volume / tariffs
BPJS national-insurance volume fuels demand, but INA-CBG tariffs cap per-patient margins: the dominant economic variable.
Occupancy / maturation
New hospitals ramp occupancy over time; maturation lifts margins and turns FCF positive: the key to the investment case.
Leverage / funding
Expansion lifted D/E to ~0.45–0.55 with thin interest cover (~4–6x); funding cost and discipline matter.
Case mix
Adding higher-value general/specialist services beyond mother-and-child improves the margin mix over time.

Linkages

Tied to healthcare demand, the BPJS universal-coverage system (its main payer and growth driver), demographics (births, second-tier-city growth) and funding costs (rates, given leverage). Defensive demand, but more BPJS- and expansion-driven than premium peers.

Recent Developments

FY2021 is not comparable to what follows and should be read separately: gross margin 47.4%, operating margin 30.1% and ROE 30.1% that year, against 32.0%, 12.0% and 8.7% the next. Treating FY2021 as the baseline makes every later year look like decline. From FY2022 the picture is growth bought with capital: revenue Rp4.90tn to Rp7.13tn and EBITDA margin steady at 23.2% to 25.9%, but net margin only 6.0% to 8.0% and ROE peaking at 12.0% in FY2024 before falling to 7.6%. Free cash flow has been negative in every year since FY2021, most heavily at minus Rp1.14tn in FY2024, while debt to equity rose from 0.37× to 0.55× and sits at 0.45×. ROIC tells the clearest version of it, 22.5% in FY2021 down to 5.9%.

Regulation

Regulated by the Ministry of Health (licensing, classification), BPJS-Kesehatan (INA-CBG tariffs: central to HEAL given its BPJS mix) and hospital accreditation (KARS). Mother-and-child and general-hospital standards apply. Listed on the IDX.

ESG & Sustainability

Material issues: access/affordability (HEAL’s BPJS focus is a strong positive social impact; healthcare reach into underserved regions), quality and safety of care, medical waste, and workforce. Governance reflects founding-group control. Maternal/child health access is a notable social contribution; clinical governance and patient-data privacy are material.

Risks

BPJS tariff pressure on a heavily-BPJS patient mix
Expansion execution and new-hospital maturation risk
High leverage (D/E ~0.45–0.55) and negative FCF
Thin margins / low ROE vs premium peers
Regulatory and clinical-quality risk

Outlook & What to Watch

The high-growth, high-investment hospital play: the largest network, riding BPJS volume and expansion into underserved regions, at the cost of thin margins, leverage and negative near-term cash flow. The base case is new-hospital maturation lifting returns; the swing factors are execution, BPJS tariffs and funding. (Interpretation, not a forecast.)

Key KPIs

EBITDA margin: EBITDA ÷ revenue: ~23–26% (net line thinner)
BOR: Bed-occupancy rate: maturation of new hospitals
ROE: Net income ÷ equity: lowest of the three (7.6% in FY2025; 7.6–30.1% across the window)
Net margin: Net income ÷ revenue: thin (6.0% in FY2025; 6.0–17.0% across the window)
FCF: Free cash flow: negative (expansion capex)

Sources

Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.