…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.82x | 0.81x | 0.81x | 0.82x | 0.86x |
| Interest burden | 0.68x | 0.78x | 0.86x | 0.93x | 0.96x |
| Operating margin | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| Asset turnover | 2.15x | 2.26x | 2.23x | 2.28x | 2.26x |
| Leverage (equity mult.)driver | 3.80x | 3.48x | 1.99x | 2.04x | 2.01x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 16.2% | 20.1% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 17.4% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 10.9% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 18.2% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 0.69x | 0.76x | 0.95x | 0.94x | 1.02x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 0.20x | 0.23x | 0.25x | 0.24x | 0.26x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.07x | 0.11x | 0.10x | 0.10x | 0.14x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | -Rp 1.2 T | -Rp 893 M | -Rp 177 M | -Rp 238 M | Rp 81 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 1.33x | 1.00x | 0.16x | 0.15x | 0.12x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 2.80x | 2.48x | 0.99x | 1.04x | 1.01x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.35x | 0.29x | 0.08x | 0.08x | 0.06x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 309 M | Rp 286 M | -Rp 16 M |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 3.11x | 4.62x | 7.31x | 13.63x | 22.86x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 3.80x | 3.48x | 1.99x | 2.04x | 2.01x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 24.9% | 25.1% | 25.7% | 26.1% | 25.9% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 825 M | Rp 996 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.7% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 16.2% | 20.1% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 17.4% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.82x | 0.81x | 0.81x | 0.82x | 0.86x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.68x | 0.78x | 0.86x | 0.93x | 0.96x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 10.9% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 18.2% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 2.15x | 2.26x | 2.23x | 2.28x | 2.26x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 5.63x | 5.83x | 5.53x | 5.44x | 5.07x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 32.87x | 42.40x | 42.75x | 48.77x | 58.61x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 6.65x | 6.86x | 6.29x | 6.28x | 6.10x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 64.9 days | 62.6 days | 66.0 days | 67.0 days | 71.9 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 11.1 days | 8.6 days | 8.5 days | 7.5 days | 6.2 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 54.9 days | 53.2 days | 58.1 days | 58.1 days | 59.8 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 21.0 days | 18.0 days | 16.5 days | 16.4 days | 18.3 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 719 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 622 M | Rp 808 M | Rp 879 M |
Price Rp 284 · market cap Rp 9.5 T
| Multiple | MIDI | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.99x | 11.17x | +7% |
| P/B | 2.09x | 1.97x | +6% |
| P/S | 0.46x | 0.53x | -13% |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.53x | 6.25x | +5% |
| EV/EBIT | 9.81x | 7.91x | +24% |
| EV/Sales | 0.46x | 0.52x | -11% |
| FCF Yield | 9.25% | 10.69% | -13% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.17% | 3.37% | +24% |
EV = mkt cap Rp 9.5 T + debt Rp 560 M − cash Rp 576 M = Rp 9.5 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 5.5%/yr FCF growth (2.5% at 12.0% to 8.3% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 5.2% FCF · 11.0% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, re-verified 31 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.95 → 1.00 | Retail (Special Lines) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.06 |
| Cost of equity | 13.92% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 7.81% | median interest coverage 7.3x (EBIT ÷ interest, FY2021–FY2025) implies a Aa2/AA synthetic rating and a 0.55% default spread, over a 7.26% base (Indonesia 10Y 7.26%, already the sovereign rate). Its BOOK rate is 7.5%, which is what past debt actually costs; the gap is legacy or subsidised borrowing, not the rate on new debt. Spread table: A. Damodaran, Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread, January 2026 data update (large non-financial service firms) |
| Tax rate | 18.4% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 13.50% | 94% E × CoE + 6% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 11.0% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 11.0%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 4.2% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 2.4% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 3.9% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years. The terminal year instead FUNDS ITS OWN GROWTH: in stable growth g = reinvestment rate x return on capital, and returns are assumed to converge to the 13.5% cost of capital, so the perpetuity reinvests 18.5% of NOPAT and terminal capex is 3.0% of revenue against depreciation of 2.4%. Both simpler rules are wrong in opposite directions: holding the historical ratio charges a build phase in perpetuity, while setting capex equal to depreciation hands the company 2.5% growth forever for no new capital. Because returns converge to the cost of capital, terminal growth here is value-neutral |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 2.0% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
Each default is the company's own historical average, which describes the phase it happened to be in. Switch a driver to Per-year when that phase is ending: a company mid-build does not spend at its peak rate forever, and one in a capex pause does not stay there. The terminal year keeps its own ratios, so a taper you enter here changes the explicit window and leaves the perpetuity coherent.
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 23 T | Rp 25 T | Rp 27 T | Rp 28 T | Rp 29 T | Rp 29 T |
| EBIT | Rp 960 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.2 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 783 M | Rp 853 M | Rp 910 M | Rp 953 M | Rp 976 M | Rp 1.0 T |
| + D&A | Rp 549 M | Rp 598 M | Rp 638 M | Rp 667 M | Rp 684 M | Rp 701 M |
| − Capex | Rp 896 M | Rp 976 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 872 M |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 46 M | Rp 42 M | Rp 34 M | Rp 25 M | Rp 14 M | Rp 15 M |
| FCFF | Rp 389 M | Rp 432 M | Rp 472 M | Rp 504 M | Rp 529 M | Rp 815 M |
| PV | Rp 343 M | Rp 336 M | Rp 323 M | Rp 304 M | Rp 281 M | Rp 3.9 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5 · equity = EV − net debt − minority · per share = equity ÷ shares outstanding
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 1.6 T + PV(TV) Rp 3.9 T = Rp 5.5 T · TV 71% of EV · − net debt -Rp 16 M − minority Rp 0 = equity Rp 5.5 T ÷ shares outstanding
Model output: Rp 166/share (-42% vs price Rp 284)· exit-multiple check (6.3x): Rp 235
Under these assumptions the model lands 42% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 12.5% | 13.5% | 14.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 176 | 159 | 144 |
| 2.5% | 184 | 166 | 150 |
| 3.0% | 194 | 173 | 156 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 14 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 20 T | Rp 21 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 10 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 15 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 5.4 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 487 M | Rp 626 M | Rp 739 M | Rp 719 M | Rp 967 M |
| Interest Expense | Rp 156 M | Rp 135 M | Rp 101 M | Rp 53 M | Rp 42 M |
| Net Income | Rp 270 M | Rp 399 M | Rp 517 M | Rp 546 M | Rp 792 M |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 270 M | Rp 399 M | Rp 517 M | Rp 546 M | Rp 792 M |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 338 M | Rp 370 M | Rp 401 M | Rp 502 M | Rp 484 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 243 M | Rp 417 M | Rp 327 M | Rp 378 M | Rp 576 M |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 413 M | Rp 369 M | Rp 406 M | Rp 408 M | Rp 352 M |
| Inventory | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 3.0 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 4.1 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 6.3 T | Rp 6.9 T | Rp 7.8 T | Rp 8.7 T | Rp 9.1 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.5 T |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.0 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 4.7 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 4.6 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 635 M | Rp 664 M | Rp 560 M |
| Total Equity | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.3 T | Rp 4.5 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.5 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.7 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 423 M | Rp 540 M | Rp 693 M | Rp 790 M | Rp 778 M |
MIDI revenue (T IDR): 13.58 (2021) → 15.62 (2022) → 17.35 (2023) → 19.89 (2024) → 20.64 (2025); steady growth every year, +52% cumulative. Gross margin: 25.0% → 25.1% → 25.7% → 26.1% → 25.9%; remarkably stable, a five-year band of barely 1 percentage point. OPM: 3.6% → 4.0% → 4.3% → 3.6% → 4.7%. Net margin: 2.0% → 2.6% → 3.0% → 2.8% → 3.8% (peak). ROE: 16.2% → 20.1% (peak) → 13.8% → 13.2% → 17.5%. ROIC: 10.9% → 14.3% → 14.2% → 12.9% → 18.2% (peak). D/E: 1.33× → 1.00× → 0.16× → 0.15× → 0.12×; a dramatic deleveraging, most of it concentrated in the single FY2022→FY2023 transition (1.00×→0.16×). Net debt (T IDR): 1.97 → 1.58 → 0.31 → 0.29 → −0.02 (crossing into a small net-cash position by FY2025). FCF (T IDR): +0.72 → +1.05 → +0.62 → +0.81 → +0.88; solidly positive every year. Current ratio: 0.69× → 0.76× → 0.95× → 0.94× → 1.02×; below 1× for four of five years (typical of high-turnover minimarket retail relying on supplier trade credit) before crossing just above 1× in FY2025. The single most striking feature is the FY2022→FY2023 D/E collapse (1.00×→0.16×) alongside net debt falling by more than Rp1.2tn in the same window: whether this reflects genuine debt repayment, a lease-liability accounting shift (PSAK 73/IFRS 16 is common in retail-chain balance sheets), or both is not independently confirmed here.
FMCG suppliers and distributors set wholesale terms; MIDI’s scale (2,587 outlets) and AMRT affiliation likely provide some procurement leverage, though this is not independently confirmed as shared/combined purchasing.
Implication → Gross margin has stayed remarkably stable (25.0–26.1%) across five years, consistent with a mature, well-negotiated supplier relationship regardless of the exact mechanism.
Individual convenience-shopper transactions are small and dispersed: no meaningful buyer concentration.
Implication → Pricing is set by MIDI/AMRT competitively against Indomaret rather than negotiated with customers.
Minimarket retail requires extensive store networks, logistics, and supplier relationships built over years: MIDI’s 2,587-outlet network and AMRT-group backing are real barriers.
Implication → The realistic competitive set is small (mainly Indomaret/AMRT itself and MIDI), not open to easy new entry.
Traditional warungs, e-commerce/quick-commerce grocery delivery, and larger supermarkets/hypermarkets compete for the same daily-needs spending.
Implication → The minimarket format’s convenience and proximity (24/7, neighbourhood locations) defend against these substitutes reasonably well, evidenced by consistent revenue growth.
The Indonesian minimarket market is effectively an AMRT-group (Alfamart/Alfamidi) vs. Indomaret duopoly: MIDI’s own primary "competitor" question is complicated by the fact that its majority owner (AMRT) also controls Alfamart.
Implication → MIDI’s real competitive battle is against Indomaret; its relationship with sibling brand Alfamart is cooperative/affiliated rather than adversarial.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's USD 57 B retail market is the largest in Southeast Asia, anchored by two minimarket giants (Alfamart and Indomaret), with premium lifestyle and specialty chains capturing the middle-class trade-up, and e-commerce reshaping >20 % of transactions.