Equal
…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burdendriver | 0.72x | 0.68x | 0.91x | 0.82x | 0.90x |
| Interest burden | 0.85x | 0.87x | 0.87x | 0.87x | 0.88x |
| Operating margin | 39.7% | 43.5% | 42.9% | 43.5% | 41.4% |
| Asset turnover | 0.20x | 0.20x | 0.19x | 0.19x | 0.20x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.51x | 1.48x | 1.43x | 1.43x | 1.37x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 3.79x | 4.65x | 5.16x | 4.77x | 3.52x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 2.48x | 3.22x | 3.60x | 3.32x | 2.09x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 2.13x | 2.83x | 3.00x | 2.95x | 1.64x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 8.4 T | Rp 9.6 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 8.0 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.30x | 0.30x | 0.27x | 0.26x | 0.21x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.51x | 0.48x | 0.43x | 0.43x | 0.37x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.20x | 0.21x | 0.19x | 0.18x | 0.15x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | -Rp 737 M | -Rp 1.2 T | -Rp 1.4 T | -Rp 2.7 T | Rp 396 M |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 6.72x | 7.69x | 7.53x | 7.86x | 8.59x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.51x | 1.48x | 1.43x | 1.43x | 1.37x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 49.1% | 54.6% | 55.6% | 57.3% | 56.2% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 39.7% | 43.5% | 42.9% | 43.5% | 41.4% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 24.2% | 25.7% | 34.0% | 31.1% | 33.0% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 3.7 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 51.0% | 54.6% | 54.2% | 53.7% | 52.1% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.72x | 0.68x | 0.91x | 0.82x | 0.90x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.85x | 0.87x | 0.87x | 0.87x | 0.88x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.20x | 0.20x | 0.19x | 0.19x | 0.20x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 0.73x | 0.72x | 0.70x | 0.63x | 0.69x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 53.99x | 58.95x | 56.15x | 47.39x | 48.21x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 13.50x | 12.79x | 13.72x | 10.54x | 10.15x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 500.0 days | 507.0 days | 522.5 days | 575.8 days | 531.6 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 6.8 days | 6.2 days | 6.5 days | 7.7 days | 7.6 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 27.0 days | 28.5 days | 26.6 days | 34.6 days | 36.0 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 479.7 days | 484.6 days | 502.4 days | 548.9 days | 503.2 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 2.6 T |
Price Rp 266 · market cap Rp 13 T
| Multiple | PWON | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 5.46x | 6.24x | -12% |
| P/B | 0.57x | 0.45x | +26% |
| P/S | 1.80x | 0.89x | +103% |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.69x | 6.25x | -25% |
| EV/EBIT | 5.90x | 7.32x | -19% |
| EV/Sales | 2.44x | 2.34x | +4% |
| FCF Yield | 20.68% | -1.14% | -1,907% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.89% | 3.47%(4/6) | +41% |
EV = mkt cap Rp 13 T + debt Rp 5.6 T − cash Rp 5.2 T + minority interest Rp 4.2 T = Rp 17 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for -2.5%/yr FCF growth (-5.1% at 12.0% to -0.0% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 5.8% FCF · 5.6% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.48 → 0.65 | Real Estate (Development) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.44 |
| Cost of equity | 11.62% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 6.14% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 18.1% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 9.62% | 70% E × CoE + 30% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 5.6% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 5.6%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 42.6% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 10.7% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 5.2% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 10.7% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 44.4% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 7.5 T | Rp 7.9 T | Rp 8.2 T | Rp 8.5 T | Rp 8.7 T | Rp 8.9 T |
| EBIT | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 3.8 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 3.1 T |
| + D&A | Rp 804 M | Rp 843 M | Rp 877 M | Rp 906 M | Rp 928 M | Rp 951 M |
| − Capex | Rp 390 M | Rp 409 M | Rp 425 M | Rp 439 M | Rp 450 M | Rp 951 M |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 177 M | Rp 161 M | Rp 142 M | Rp 119 M | Rp 94 M | Rp 96 M |
| FCFF | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.0 T |
| PV | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 27 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 12 T + PV(TV) Rp 27 T = Rp 39 T · TV 69% of EV · − net debt Rp 396 M − minority Rp 4.2 T
Model output: Rp 708/share (+166% vs price Rp 266)· exit-multiple check (6.3x): Rp 533
Under these assumptions the model lands 166% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 778 | 666 | 580 |
| 2.5% | 836 | 708 | 612 |
| 3.0% | 904 | 757 | 648 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 6.2 T | Rp 6.7 T | Rp 7.1 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 3.1 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 4.0 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 2.9 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 338 M | Rp 338 M | Rp 353 M | Rp 369 M | Rp 343 M |
| Net Income | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.3 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.3 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 646 M | Rp 670 M | Rp 697 M | Rp 679 M | Rp 759 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 6.4 T | Rp 7.4 T | Rp 7.6 T | Rp 9.2 T | Rp 5.2 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 106 M | Rp 102 M | Rp 110 M | Rp 141 M | Rp 147 M |
| Inventory | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 4.5 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 11 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 11 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 29 T | Rp 31 T | Rp 33 T | Rp 35 T | Rp 36 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 215 M | Rp 213 M | Rp 201 M | Rp 270 M | Rp 307 M |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.2 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 9.7 T | Rp 9.9 T | Rp 9.9 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 9.8 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 6.3 T | Rp 6.2 T | Rp 6.4 T | Rp 5.6 T |
| Total Equity | Rp 19 T | Rp 21 T | Rp 23 T | Rp 25 T | Rp 27 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 16 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 19 T | Rp 21 T | Rp 22 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.0 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 120 M | Rp 196 M | Rp 282 M | Rp 379 M | Rp 379 M |
PWON is a uniquely structured property company. Unlike a pure residential developer, it operates the full mixed-use stack: mall rental (Tunjungan Plaza, Pakuwon Mall), residential (Laguna Residence, Grand Pakuwon), hotels and offices. The mall-rental and hospitality income is recurring, which produces EBITDA margins of 52–55% and a steady IDR 2.1–3.0 T of FCF a year, extraordinary for a sector usually defined by lumpy cash flows. ROE (8.6–11.0%) and ROIC (8.5–10.7%) sit below 15% because the model is capital-intensive (asset turnover just 0.19–0.20×), but the FCF yield is exceptional. D/E compressing from 0.30 to 0.21 signals prudent capital allocation. The 2023 jump in net margin (25.7%→33.9%) most likely reflects fair-value gains on investment property. The main risks are interest-rate sensitivity, as with any property name, plus IKN uncertainty and execution on residential pre-sales.
Construction contractors are fragmented and substitutable. Land (already acquired) is PWON's primary input, and Surabaya land positions are largely secured. Building material costs (steel, cement) are the key variable cost; commodity cycles affect construction margins but not rental income streams.
Implication → Low supplier power on recurring revenue (rental, hotel): tenants are locked into multi-year lease agreements. Construction cost volatility affects project margins on the residential development side.
Mall tenants at Tunjungan Plaza and Pakuwon Mall have limited negotiating power: these are the premier retail destinations in Eastern Indonesia and vacancy rates are low. Residential buyers are individual consumers with no meaningful price leverage on prestige addresses.
Implication → Low buyer power supports the 49–57% gross margin on the recurring segment and validates PWON's pricing power in Surabaya's premium real-estate market.
Developing a Tunjungan Plaza equivalent requires decades, billions in capital, and irreplaceable Surabaya city-centre land. The integrated mixed-use model (5-tower mall + residential + hotel + office) cannot be quickly replicated. New mall supply in Surabaya is constrained by land scarcity in prime locations.
Implication → Very low threat of entry to PWON's core Surabaya positions; the barrier is primarily land and capital intensity, reinforced by established tenant relationships and brand recognition.
E-commerce (Tokopedia, Shopee) is a substitute for mall retail tenants, affecting tenant demand and lease renewal pricing. Alternative residential and hotel properties in Surabaya compete for buyers and guests. Jakarta-based developers (Lippo, Ciputra) expanding eastward represent structural competitive pressure.
Implication → Mall retail faces the e-commerce tenant substitution risk; residential and hotel have more limited substitutes within PWON's premium Surabaya positioning. Monitoring mall occupancy rates is key.
Surabaya residential rivals include Ciputra (CTRA), Summarecon, and smaller local developers. National mall operators (Lippo Malls, MNC Land) compete for Surabaya expansion. Internationally branded hotels (Marriott, Accor) compete in the hotel segment. PWON's integrated township scale is a significant differentiator.
Implication → Rivalry is moderate and manageable given PWON's first-mover, integrated-township position in Surabaya; competitive risk increases if rival developers secure prime Surabaya land banks.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's USD 149 B real estate market (2024) grows at 7.9 % CAGR: driven by urbanisation, a 12.7 M residential backlog, IKN Nusantara, and logistics property demand from e-commerce. Residential presales (CTRA, BSDE) are the sector pulse; PWON's mall recurring income provides a resilient earnings floor.