…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.78x | 1.51x | 1.18x | 0.83x | 0.86x |
| Interest burden | 0.96x | 0.91x | 0.93x | 0.96x | 0.96x |
| Operating margindriver | 9.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 12.1% |
| Asset turnover | 1.16x | 1.08x | 1.16x | 1.09x | 1.07x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.40x | 1.50x | 1.40x | 1.36x | 1.35x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 12.0% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 15.8% | 14.6% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 12.5% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 16.5% | 15.2% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 3.29x | 2.48x | 2.69x | 3.09x | 3.15x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 2.44x | 1.84x | 2.03x | 2.32x | 2.36x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 1.42x | 1.13x | 1.31x | 1.56x | 1.61x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 4.3 T | Rp 4.6 T | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 5.9 T | Rp 6.2 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.14x | 0.19x | 0.14x | 0.09x | 0.11x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.40x | 0.50x | 0.40x | 0.36x | 0.35x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.10x | 0.13x | 0.10x | 0.07x | 0.08x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | -Rp 1.8 T | -Rp 2.0 T | -Rp 2.6 T | -Rp 3.6 T | -Rp 3.6 T |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 22.95x | 11.24x | 13.85x | 25.25x | 25.67x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.40x | 1.50x | 1.40x | 1.36x | 1.35x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 35.4% | 33.7% | 35.6% | 37.6% | 37.7% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 9.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 12.1% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.0% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 984 M | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.0 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 11.6% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 14.1% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 10.8% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 12.6% | 13.9% | 15.3% | 16.7% | 15.3% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.78x | 1.51x | 1.18x | 0.83x | 0.86x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.96x | 0.91x | 0.93x | 0.96x | 0.96x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 12.5% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 16.5% | 15.2% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 1.16x | 1.08x | 1.16x | 1.09x | 1.07x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 4.51x | 4.10x | 4.53x | 3.89x | 3.86x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 9.52x | 8.65x | 8.82x | 9.08x | 9.84x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 6.51x | 5.79x | 8.06x | 5.97x | 6.44x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 80.9 days | 89.1 days | 80.6 days | 93.9 days | 94.5 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 38.3 days | 42.2 days | 41.4 days | 40.2 days | 37.1 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 56.0 days | 63.0 days | 45.3 days | 61.1 days | 56.7 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 63.2 days | 68.3 days | 76.7 days | 73.0 days | 74.9 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 304 M | -Rp 106 M | Rp 873 M | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 866 M |
Price Rp 2,880 · market cap Rp 13 T
| Multiple | TSPC | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.23x | 9.09x | +2% |
| P/B | 1.41x | 1.41x | +0% |
| P/S | 0.93x | 0.93x | -0% |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.99x | 5.35x | -7% |
| EV/EBIT | 5.81x | 6.62x | -12% |
| EV/Sales | 0.71x | 0.78x | -10% |
| FCF Yield | 6.67% | 7.21% | -8% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.94% | 6.85% | +1% |
EV = mkt cap Rp 13 T + debt Rp 1.1 T − cash Rp 4.6 T + minority interest Rp 468 M = Rp 9.9 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 6.3%/yr FCF growth (3.3% at 12.0% to 9.2% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 30.0% FCF · 5.7% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.89 → 0.95 | Drugs (Pharmaceutical) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.08 |
| Cost of equity | 13.62% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 6.24% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 16.7% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 12.98% | 92% E × CoE + 8% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 5.7% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 5.7%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 11.2% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 2.3% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 3.1% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 2.3% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 24.2% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 15 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 18 T |
| EBIT | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.0 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.6 T |
| + D&A | Rp 342 M | Rp 359 M | Rp 373 M | Rp 386 M | Rp 395 M | Rp 405 M |
| − Capex | Rp 459 M | Rp 481 M | Rp 501 M | Rp 517 M | Rp 530 M | Rp 405 M |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 192 M | Rp 175 M | Rp 153 M | Rp 129 M | Rp 101 M | Rp 104 M |
| FCFF | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| PV | Rp 949 M | Rp 902 M | Rp 851 M | Rp 796 M | Rp 739 M | Rp 7.9 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 4.2 T + PV(TV) Rp 7.9 T = Rp 12 T · TV 65% of EV · − net debt -Rp 3.6 T − minority Rp 468 M
Model output: Rp 3,390/share (+18% vs price Rp 2,880)· exit-multiple check (5.4x): Rp 3,119
Under these assumptions the model lands 18% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 3,582 | 3,306 | 3,077 |
| 2.5% | 3,689 | 3,390 | 3,144 |
| 3.0% | 3,808 | 3,483 | 3,218 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 11 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 14 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 7.3 T | Rp 8.1 T | Rp 8.4 T | Rp 8.5 T | Rp 8.7 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.7 T | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 5.3 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 729 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.7 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 48 M | Rp 65 M | Rp 78 M | Rp 72 M | Rp 66 M |
| Net Income | Rp 824 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 824 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 193 M | Rp 255 M | Rp 271 M | Rp 392 M | Rp 279 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 4.6 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.4 T |
| Inventory | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.3 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 6.2 T | Rp 7.7 T | Rp 7.6 T | Rp 8.8 T | Rp 9.0 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 9.6 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 13 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 2.9 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 3.4 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 932 M | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 859 M | Rp 1.1 T |
| Total Equity | Rp 6.9 T | Rp 7.6 T | Rp 8.1 T | Rp 9.2 T | Rp 9.7 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 6.5 T | Rp 7.2 T | Rp 7.7 T | Rp 8.7 T | Rp 9.2 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 690 M | Rp 486 M | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.4 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 386 M | Rp 592 M | Rp 327 M | Rp 393 M | Rp 551 M |
TSPC revenue (T IDR): 11.23 (2021) → 12.25 (2022) → 13.12 (2023) → 13.65 (2024) → 14.01 (2025); growth every year, +25% cumulative. Gross margin: 35.4% → 33.7% → 35.6% → 37.6% → 37.7%. OPM: 9.8% → 6.0% → 8.2% → 13.3% → 12.1%. Net margin: 7.3% → 8.2% → 9.0% → 10.6% → 10.0%. ROE: 12.6% → 13.9% → 15.3% → 16.7% → 15.3%. ROA: 8.5% → 8.8% → 10.4% → 11.6% → 10.8%. ROIC: 12.5% → 14.6% → 15.7% → 16.5% → 15.2%. D/E: 0.14× → 0.19× → 0.14× → 0.09× → 0.11×. Net debt (T IDR): −1.76 → −2.03 → −2.58 → −3.60 → −3.58 (net cash every year, growing). Interest coverage: 22.9× → 11.2× → 13.9× → 25.2× → 25.7×. FCF (T IDR): +0.30 → −0.11 → +0.87 → +1.32 → +0.87 (the only negative year, FY2022). Current ratio: 3.29× → 2.48× → 2.69× → 3.09× → 3.15×. Asset turnover: 1.17× → 1.08× → 1.16× → 1.09× → 1.07×. The pattern is a single soft year (FY2022: every margin line at its five-year low, interest coverage at its weakest 11.2×, the only FCF-negative year) bracketed by steady revenue growth throughout and a broad FY2023–24 recovery. Note the gap between gross margin (a comparatively narrow 33.7–37.7% band) and operating margin (a much wider 6.0–13.3% swing): TSPC runs three segments; Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Products & Cosmetics, and Distribution Services; of visibly different economics, and the wide OPM swing sits below the gross-margin line, consistent with a shifting mix and/or opex timing across that structurally lower-margin distribution business rather than a COGS-driven story. Leverage stayed low and the balance sheet net-cash throughout.
Pharma actives (APIs) and some cosmetics/packaging inputs carry import content, but in-house manufacturing of soap, packaging and other adjacent inputs gives some backward-integration buffer.
Implication → Import/FX cost swings are a plausible driver of the FY2022 gross-margin dip (33.7%, the five-year low): an interpretation, not a confirmed disclosure.
Branded OTC/consumer lines (Bodrex, Hemaviton) carry real pricing power from brand loyalty, but the Distribution segment is more of an intermediary business where customers/principals hold more leverage.
Implication → Blended pricing power sits between a strong-brand consumer business and a thinner-margin distribution business: visible in the wide OPM swing (6.0–13.3%) against a steadier gross margin.
Heritage since 1970, a broad multi-category brand portfolio (pharma, OTC, cosmetics) and a national distribution network are substantial barriers for a new entrant to replicate.
Implication → The scale and breadth of the group defend its position, though individual brands still face category-level competition (see rivalry).
Generic OTC drugs, herbal alternatives (e.g. SIDO’s Tolak Angin for cold/flu relief) and other consumer personal-care brands compete for the same ailments and shelf space.
Implication → Caps pricing power at the individual-brand level; the group’s response is portfolio breadth across categories rather than dominance in any single one.
Competes with KLBF (also diversified pharma/consumer), SIDO (herbal OTC), multinational personal-care/cosmetics brands, and other distributors in the Distribution segment: competition on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Implication → No single dominant category position; scale and portfolio breadth, not category dominance, are the defence.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
A ~USD 10–12B market dominated by generics and shaped by JKN/BPJS reimbursement: Kalbe Farma leads ASEAN, but ~90% API import dependency and IDR exposure are structural cost risks.