Equal · Financial Report

Ultrajaya Milk Industry

ULTJ/FY2021–FY2025/Educational Analysis/IDR/Data source · 2026-06-20

ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Tax burden	0.91x	0.87x	0.81x	0.79x	0.83x
Interest burden	0.86x	0.90x	0.97x	1.00x	1.00x
Operating margindriver	24.5%	16.1%	18.0%	16.2%	18.5%
Asset turnover	0.89x	1.04x	1.10x	1.05x	0.95x
Leverage (equity mult.)	1.44x	1.27x	1.13x	1.14x	1.11x
= Return on Equity (consolidated)	24.7%	16.5%	17.5%	15.3%	16.3%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	28.9%	18.3%	18.1%	15.3%	16.3%

Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.

Liquidity

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities)	3.11x	3.17x	6.18x	5.39x	6.59x
Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities)	2.65x	1.95x	4.14x	3.71x	5.04x
Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities)	1.03x	0.86x	3.05x	2.70x	4.02x
Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities)	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.2 T	Rp 3.7 T	Rp 4.0 T	Rp 4.4 T

Leverage & Solvency

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity)	0.30x	0.10x	0.00x	0.01x	0.01x
Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity)	0.44x	0.27x	0.13x	0.14x	0.11x
Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets)	0.21x	0.08x	0.00x	0.00x	0.00x
Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash)	-Rp 77 M	-Rp 638 M	-Rp 2.1 T	-Rp 2.4 T	-Rp 3.1 T
Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense)	7.00x	10.30x	31.94x	11,327.60x	12,693.23x
Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity)	1.44x	1.27x	1.13x	1.14x	1.11x

Profitability

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue)	35.4%	32.0%	32.4%	34.0%	32.7%
Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue)	24.5%	16.1%	18.0%	16.2%	18.5%
Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue)	19.2%	12.5%	14.1%	12.8%	15.4%
EBITDA(EBIT + D&A)	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.8 T
EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue)	27.0%	18.1%	19.8%	17.7%	20.2%
Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets)	17.2%	13.0%	15.5%	13.4%	14.6%
Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners))	25.2%	16.7%	17.7%	15.5%	16.5%
Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax)	0.91x	0.87x	0.81x	0.79x	0.83x
Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT)	0.86x	0.90x	0.97x	1.00x	1.00x
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	28.9%	18.3%	18.1%	15.3%	16.3%

Operations & Efficiency

Turnover	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets)	0.89x	1.04x	1.10x	1.05x	0.95x
Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory)	5.97x	2.94x	3.84x	3.85x	4.82x
Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables)	10.57x	12.40x	11.69x	10.84x	11.83x
Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables)	10.87x	8.33x	12.06x	10.54x	12.19x

Conversion Period	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS)	61.2 days	124.3 days	95.1 days	94.8 days	75.7 days
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue)	34.5 days	29.4 days	31.2 days	33.7 days	30.8 days
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS)	33.6 days	43.8 days	30.3 days	34.6 days	29.9 days
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO)	62.1 days	109.9 days	96.0 days	93.9 days	76.6 days

Cash Flow

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex)	Rp 1.2 T	-Rp 115 M	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 683 M	Rp 1.2 T

Valuation

price as-of 2026-07-31fundamentals: FY2025

Price Rp 1,470 · market cap Rp 15 T

Multiple	ULTJ	Peer median	vs median
P/E	11.30x	11.30x	0%
P/B	1.86x	1.86x	0%
P/S	1.74x	1.09x	+60%
EV/EBITDA	6.92x	6.93x	-0%
EV/EBIT	7.55x	7.67x	-2%
EV/Sales	1.40x	1.40x	0%
FCF Yield	7.97%	7.97%	0%
Dividend Yield	3.06%	3.80%	-19%

EV = mkt cap Rp 15 T + debt Rp 44 M − cash Rp 3.2 T + minority interest Rp 96 M = Rp 12 T

What the price implies

At today’s price, the market is paying for 4.4%/yr FCF growth (1.5% at 12.0% to 7.1% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 1.2% FCF · 7.3% revenue.

Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.

Forward DCF (glass-box)

This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.

Assumption	Value	Basis
Rf (risk-free)	7.26%	Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026
ERP (Rm − Rf)	6.69%	Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%)
β	0.46 → 0.46	Food Processing (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.00
Cost of equity	10.34%	Rf + β × ERP
Cost of debt	3.00%	FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt (clamped to a 3–20% sane band)
Tax rate	16.7%	median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest)
WACC	10.32%	100% E × CoE + 0% D × Kd × (1 − t)
Revenue growth (yr 1, fading)	7.3%	delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 7.3%, fading linearly to terminal
EBIT margin	17.6%	mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs
D&A / revenue	1.7%	mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs
Capex / revenue	5.5%	mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 1.7% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points
ΔNWC / Δrevenue	46.1%	median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP)
Terminal growth	2.5%	BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%)

Growth path

year 1 → fading to terminal over 5 yrs7.3%

EBIT margin17.6%

WACC10.3%

Terminal growth2.5%

Explicit years5

Year	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	T∞
Growth	7.3%	6.1%	4.9%	3.7%	2.5%	2.5%
Revenue	Rp 9.4 T	Rp 10.0 T	Rp 10 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 11 T
EBIT	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 1.9 T	Rp 2.0 T	Rp 2.0 T
NOPAT	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 1.5 T	Rp 1.5 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.7 T
+ D&A	Rp 156 M	Rp 165 M	Rp 173 M	Rp 180 M	Rp 184 M	Rp 189 M
− Capex	Rp 520 M	Rp 552 M	Rp 579 M	Rp 600 M	Rp 615 M	Rp 189 M
− ΔNWC	Rp 295 M	Rp 264 M	Rp 225 M	Rp 179 M	Rp 125 M	Rp 128 M
FCFF	Rp 719 M	Rp 811 M	Rp 903 M	Rp 991 M	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.5 T
PV	Rp 652 M	Rp 666 M	Rp 672 M	Rp 669 M	Rp 657 M	Rp 12 T

Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5

EV = PV(explicit) Rp 3.3 T + PV(TV) Rp 12 T = Rp 15 T · TV 78% of EV · − net debt -Rp 3.1 T − minority Rp 96 M

Model output: Rp 1,770/share (+20% vs price Rp 1,470)· exit-multiple check (6.9x): Rp 1,483

Under these assumptions the model lands 20% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.

Sensitivity (per share, Rp)

g \ WACC	9.3%	10.3%	11.3%
2.0%	1,917	1,702	1,533
2.5%	2,011	1,770	1,585
3.0%	2,120	1,848	1,642

Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.

Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.

Macro backdropfull backdrop + sensitivity map →

BI Rate 5.75%IDR/USD 18,05810Y government bond yield 7.26%Inflation 3.34%(as-of 2026-07-31)

GDP/consumption ↑(H)Rupiah weaker(H)CPO ↑(M)

Income Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	Rp 6.6 T	Rp 7.7 T	Rp 8.3 T	Rp 8.9 T	Rp 8.8 T
Cost of Goods Sold	Rp 4.3 T	Rp 5.2 T	Rp 5.6 T	Rp 5.9 T	Rp 5.9 T
Gross Profit	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 2.7 T	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 2.9 T
Operating Income (EBIT)	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.5 T	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 1.6 T
Interest Expense	Rp 232 M	Rp 119 M	Rp 47 M	Rp 127 jt	Rp 128 jt
Net Income	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 961 M	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.4 T
Net Income Attributable to Owners	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 961 M	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.4 T
Depreciation & Amortization	Rp 161 M	Rp 155 M	Rp 147 M	Rp 135 M	Rp 147 M

Balance Sheet

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Equivalents	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 3.2 T
Accounts Receivable	Rp 626 M	Rp 617 M	Rp 710 M	Rp 819 M	Rp 741 M
Inventory	Rp 716 M	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 1.5 T	Rp 1.5 T	Rp 1.2 T
Current Assets	Rp 4.8 T	Rp 4.6 T	Rp 4.4 T	Rp 4.9 T	Rp 5.2 T
Total Assets	Rp 7.4 T	Rp 7.4 T	Rp 7.5 T	Rp 8.5 T	Rp 9.3 T
Accounts Payable	Rp 393 M	Rp 625 M	Rp 465 M	Rp 555 M	Rp 484 M
Current Liabilities	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.5 T	Rp 713 M	Rp 903 M	Rp 788 M
Total Liabilities	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 837 M	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 937 M
Total Interest-Bearing Debt	Rp 1.5 T	Rp 611 M	Rp 31 M	Rp 38 M	Rp 44 M
Total Equity	Rp 5.1 T	Rp 5.8 T	Rp 6.7 T	Rp 7.4 T	Rp 8.3 T
Equity Attributable to Owners	Rp 5.0 T	Rp 5.7 T	Rp 6.6 T	Rp 7.3 T	Rp 8.2 T

Cash Flow Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 260 M	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 1.7 T
Capital Expenditure	Rp 252 M	Rp 374 M	Rp 386 M	Rp 579 M	Rp 475 M

Company Deep Analysis

Reviewed: 2026-07-31

Analyst Verdict

Ultrajaya dominates UHT (long-life) liquid milk and ready-to-drink tea (Ultra Milk, Teh Kotak), with integration back into dairy farming and aseptic packaging. It is the conservative quality name in F&B: steady ROE ~15–18%, high margins (gross ~33%, net ~13–15%), a fortress balance sheet (net cash, D/E ~0.005), and high ROA (~13–15%). Growth is steady rather than spectacular, and capital allocation is cautious, leaving it sitting on a large cash pile. It is a defensive, well-run dairy compounder, and what moves it is the input cost of milk and skim-milk powder (FX-linked) and the long runway that low Indonesian dairy consumption still offers.

Business Model

Indonesia’s leading UHT (ultra-high-temperature, long-life) dairy and ready-to-drink beverage producer, flagship Ultra Milk (UHT milk) and Teh Kotak (boxed tea), with backward integration into dairy farming and aseptic packaging. Family-controlled and conservative, it combines branded consumer products with an efficient, cash-generative, low-debt model.

Segments

UHT dairy (Ultra Milk) is the core, with ready-to-drink tea (Teh Kotak) the second pillar. Margins are healthy (gross ~33%, net ~13–15%) and returns steady (ROE ~15–18%). The defining financial trait is conservatism: near-zero debt, a large cash balance and high liquidity (current ratio 5–6x).

Value Chain & Positioning

Raw milk (own farms + imported skim-milk powder) → UHT/aseptic processing → branded distribution (ambient, no cold chain needed) → retail. ULTJ’s edge is the UHT/aseptic model (long shelf life, nationwide reach without cold chain) plus brand leadership; its cost line is exposed to milk/SMP prices and the rupiah.

Competitive Forces (Porter’s 5)

Supplier powerMedium

How much leverage input/funding providers have over pricing.

Raw milk (local + imported skim-milk powder) and aseptic packaging are key, partly FX-linked inputs; own farms help.

Implication → Milk/SMP and packaging costs (FX) are the main margin variable; integration cushions it.

Buyer powerLow

How much leverage customers have to push prices down.

Ultra Milk’s brand leadership in UHT gives consumers limited leverage.

Implication → Supports stable, healthy margins.

Threat of new entryLow

How easily new competitors can enter the market.

Brand, the aseptic/UHT capability and distribution are barriers; dairy needs scale and capital.

Implication → The UHT franchise is defensible; multinationals compete but ULTJ leads locally.

Threat of substitutesMedium

Risk that alternative products/services replace demand.

Powdered milk, other beverages and plant-based alternatives substitute.

Implication → Caps category dominance, but UHT convenience and per-capita upside support volume.

Competitive rivalryMedium

Intensity of competition among existing players.

Competes with Frisian Flag, Greenfields and others in dairy; tea has many players.

Implication → Steady competition; brand and distribution keep ULTJ the UHT leader.

Moat / Competitive Edge

Moderate-to-wide. ULTJ’s moat is the Ultra Milk brand (synonymous with UHT milk), the aseptic/UHT manufacturing capability (ambient distribution nationwide), dairy-farm integration and distribution reach. The fortress balance sheet adds resilience. The limit: dairy is competitive (multinationals present) and growth is steady rather than high; the large cash hoard is conservative capital allocation.

Key Drivers & Sensitivities

Dairy / SMP input + FX
Raw-milk and imported skim-milk-powder prices (rupiah-linked) are the main margin swing; own-farm integration provides a partial buffer.
Volume / consumption
Indonesia’s low per-capita dairy consumption is a long structural runway; rising health awareness supports milk demand.
Packaging costs
Aseptic packaging (imported materials, FX) is a meaningful, rupiah-linked cost line.
Pricing power
Brand leadership allows price increases to recover input costs, protecting steady margins.
Capacity / capital allocation
Capacity expansion and use of the large cash balance (capex, potential M&A/dividends) shape growth and returns.

Linkages

Tied to consumer staples demand (defensive), milk/skim-milk-powder prices, the rupiah (imported inputs/packaging) and Indonesia’s structurally low dairy consumption. Less cyclical than discretionary food; a defensive consumption + rising-protein/health play.

Recent Developments

A quiet, high-return business with an unusual balance sheet. From FY2022 ROE ran 16.7%, 17.7%, 15.5% and 16.5%, gross margin between 32.0% and 34.0%, and net margin recovered to 15.4% in FY2025. FY2021 sits above all of it at 25.2% ROE and 28.9% ROIC and should be read as the outlier rather than the benchmark. Debt was retired early and has stayed retired, debt to equity 0.30× in FY2021 down to 0.01×, and the cash position is large enough that the current ratio has run between 5.4× and 6.6× since FY2023. Free cash flow was negative only in FY2022, at minus Rp0.11tn, and reached Rp1.22tn in FY2025 on revenue that has grown 33% across the window.

Regulation

Regulated by BPOM (food/dairy safety, labelling) and halal certification; dairy import policy (skim-milk powder) and any local-milk-absorption rules affect inputs. A potential sugar-sweetened-beverage excise is a watch item for flavoured milk/tea. Listed on the IDX.

ESG & Sustainability

Material issues: dairy-farming animal welfare and emissions, packaging waste (aseptic cartons; recyclability), and water use. Governance reflects founder-family control and a conservative, low-leverage philosophy. Halal and food-safety compliance are core; local-dairy sourcing supports smallholder farmers.

Risks

Milk / skim-milk-powder input and FX costs
Steady-but-modest growth / conservative capital allocation (cash drag)
Dairy competition (multinationals)
Packaging-cost (FX) pressure
Sugar-tax risk on flavoured products

Outlook & What to Watch

A defensive, well-run dairy compounder with brand leadership, a fortress balance sheet and a long per-capita-consumption runway. The base case is steady high-teens returns; the swing factors are milk/SMP input costs and how the large cash balance is deployed. (Interpretation, not a forecast.)

Key KPIs

Gross margin: Gross profit ÷ revenue: healthy (~33%)
ROE: Net income ÷ equity: steady ~15–18%
ROA: Net income ÷ assets: high (low debt) ~13–15%
Net margin: Net income ÷ revenue: rising to ~15%
FCF: Free cash flow: positive; large net cash

Sources

Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.