Equal
…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.73x | 0.82x | 0.75x | 0.75x | 0.71x |
| Interest burden | 0.88x | 0.86x | 0.85x | 0.86x | 0.94x |
| Operating margindriver | 12.6% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% |
| Asset turnover | 0.80x | 0.75x | 0.72x | 0.76x | 1.06x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.44x | 1.31x | 1.28x | 1.24x | 1.12x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 9.3% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 1.58x | 3.60x | 1.83x | 2.60x | 4.33x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 1.01x | 1.93x | 1.03x | 1.36x | 2.53x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.65x | 0.79x | 0.54x | 1.00x | 1.38x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 5.3 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 6.7 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.27x | 0.18x | 0.18x | 0.14x | 0.00x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.44x | 0.31x | 0.28x | 0.24x | 0.12x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.19x | 0.14x | 0.14x | 0.11x | 0.00x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 1.9 T | -Rp 46 M | -Rp 2.8 T |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 8.20x | 7.02x | 6.55x | 7.02x | 16.11x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.44x | 1.31x | 1.28x | 1.24x | 1.12x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 20.1% | 16.7% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 16.2% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 12.6% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 4.3 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 3.7 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 17.7% | 17.0% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 12.8% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 9.6% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.73x | 0.82x | 0.75x | 0.75x | 0.71x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.88x | 0.86x | 0.85x | 0.86x | 0.94x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.80x | 0.75x | 0.72x | 0.76x | 1.06x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 5.75x | 5.29x | 5.75x | 4.56x | 6.65x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 53.09x | 25.72x | 30.76x | 58.86x | 23.75x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 18.94x | 14.84x | 21.32x | 25.81x | 26.35x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 63.5 days | 69.0 days | 63.5 days | 80.1 days | 54.9 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 6.9 days | 14.2 days | 11.9 days | 6.2 days | 15.4 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 19.3 days | 24.6 days | 17.1 days | 14.1 days | 13.9 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 51.1 days | 58.6 days | 58.2 days | 72.1 days | 56.4 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 456 M | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 3.4 T |
Price Rp 6,891 · market cap Rp 13 T
| Multiple | AALI | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.99x | 5.16x | +74% |
| P/B | 0.56x | 0.56x | 0% |
| P/S | 0.46x | 0.46x | 0% |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.02x | 3.02x | 0% |
| EV/EBIT | 5.00x | 4.15x | +21% |
| EV/Sales | 0.39x | 0.39x | -1% |
| FCF Yield | 25.92% | 25.92% | 0% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.65% | 4.55% | +46% |
Only 3 peers are covered here, so the median is itself one of the members. A 0% gap can simply mean AALI sits at the median.
EV = mkt cap Rp 13 T + debt Rp 0 − cash Rp 2.8 T + minority interest Rp 601 M = Rp 11 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for -15.1%/yr FCF growth (-17.2% at 12.0% to -13.2% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -1.7% FCF · 4.2% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.81 → 0.81 | Farming/Agriculture (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.00 |
| Cost of equity | 12.68% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 9.26% | no material debt: Rf + 200bp placeholder (near-zero weight) |
| Tax rate | 25.5% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 12.68% | 100% E × CoE + 0% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 4.2% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 4.2%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 8.0% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 6.0% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 4.3% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 6.0% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 6.4% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 30 T | Rp 31 T | Rp 32 T | Rp 33 T | Rp 34 T | Rp 35 T |
| EBIT | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 2.8 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.1 T |
| + D&A | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.1 T |
| − Capex | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 2.1 T |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 77 M | Rp 72 M | Rp 66 M | Rp 60 M | Rp 53 M | Rp 54 M |
| FCFF | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.0 T |
| PV | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 11 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 8.3 T + PV(TV) Rp 11 T = Rp 19 T · TV 57% of EV · − net debt -Rp 2.8 T − minority Rp 601 M
Model output: Rp 11,119/share (+61% vs price Rp 6,891)· exit-multiple check (3.0x): Rp 9,548
Under these assumptions the model lands 61% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 11.7% | 12.7% | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 11,710 | 10,780 | 10,007 |
| 2.5% | 12,133 | 11,119 | 10,284 |
| 3.0% | 12,605 | 11,493 | 10,586 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 24 T | Rp 22 T | Rp 21 T | Rp 22 T | Rp 29 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 19 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 24 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 4.6 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.2 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 374 M | Rp 348 M | Rp 255 M | Rp 255 M | Rp 138 M |
| Net Income | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 2.8 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 458 M | Rp 849 M | Rp 674 M | Rp 371 M | Rp 1.2 T |
| Inventory | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 3.6 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 9.4 T | Rp 7.4 T | Rp 7.1 T | Rp 8.4 T | Rp 8.7 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 30 T | Rp 29 T | Rp 29 T | Rp 29 T | Rp 27 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 842 M | Rp 711 M | Rp 911 M |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 2.0 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 9.2 T | Rp 7.0 T | Rp 6.3 T | Rp 5.6 T | Rp 2.9 T |
| Total Debt | Rp 5.8 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 0 |
| Total Equity | Rp 21 T | Rp 22 T | Rp 23 T | Rp 23 T | Rp 24 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 21 T | Rp 22 T | Rp 22 T | Rp 23 T | Rp 24 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 4.2 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 941 M | Rp 782 M |
AALI gross margin: 20.1 % (2021) → 16.7 % (2022) → 13.5 % (2023) → 15.8 % (2024) → 16.2 % (2025). OPM: 12.6 % → 11.2 % → 8.1 % → 8.2 % → 7.7 %. Net margin: 8.1 % → 7.9 % → 5.1 % → 5.3 % → 5.1 %. ROE: 9.6 % → 8.0 % → 4.8 % → 5.1 % → 6.2 %. ROIC: 9.7 % → 8.2 % → 5.1 % → 5.8 % (2025 reading anomalous; exclude). D/E: 0.27 → 0.18 → 0.18 → 0.14 → near-zero. FCF (T IDR): +3.67 → +0.46 → +1.30 → +2.44 → +3.43. Interest coverage: 8.2× → 7.0× → 6.5× → 7.0× → 16.1×. Asset turnover: 0.80 → 0.75 → 0.72 → 0.76 → 1.06×. ROE 6.2 % in 2025 is below typical cost of equity for a plantation stock (~10–12 %): AALI is not earning its cost of capital at current CPO prices. The CPO mean-reversion from 2022 peak (MYR 7,000/T) to 2025 (MYR 3,800–4,200/T) is the culprit. FCF exceeds reported earnings because mature palm D&A > maintenance capex: the asset-heavy balance sheet is a cash machine despite thin accounting profits.
Primary inputs: plantation labor, fertiliser (urea, NPK from Petrokimia/Pupuk Kaltim), pesticides, diesel for mills. All commodity inputs with multiple domestic suppliers. Labor is the largest cost (~20–25 % COGS) but comes from local communities with limited union organisation.
Implication → Low input-side risk. Main cost sensitivities are fertiliser prices (linked to global urea/gas) and UMP labor minimum wage increases.
CPO buyers (refiners: Wilmar, Musim Mas, Permata Hijau, IOI) purchase at the MDEX Bursa Malaysia benchmark; fully transparent, globally set. AALI has zero pricing power. Buyers can source from any Indonesian or Malaysian producer.
Implication → Revenue is entirely commodity-price driven. Every 10 % CPO price move impacts top line ~10 % and EBIT ~20–30 % (operating leverage). Operational decisions are secondary.
Indonesia's forest moratorium (KLHK Permen 17/2022 extended) prohibits new primary forest conversion: effectively caps greenfield plantation entry. New entrants need existing degraded land + 4-year pre-productive period (~IDR 40–60 M/ha planting cost). RSPO/ISPO certification adds 2–3 years. AALI's 295,000 ha is irreplaceable under current land-access constraints.
Implication → Moratorium is simultaneously a growth constraint for AALI and a barrier to new competition. The land bank is the irreplaceable asset: the moat is defensive, not offensive.
CPO competes with soybean oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed in food. CPO advantages: highest yield/ha (4–5× soybean), lowest cost of production, 12-month supply. EU EUDR (effective 2026) is the market-access substitution risk: non-compliant supply chains lose EU access and European buyers shift to certified alternatives or substitute oils.
Implication → EUDR 2026 is the defining near-term risk, and a potential moat for certified producers vs. non-certified Indonesian/Malaysian competitors once enforcement begins.
Indonesian CPO market dominated by large private unlisted producers: Musim Mas (~2.5 Mha), Wilmar-linked, SMART/GGP (Sinar Mas, SGX-listed), Permata Hijau. Malaysian giants: Sime Darby Plantation, IOI, KLK; all global-scale CPO producers at same MDEX benchmark. AALI at ~295,000 ha is mid-sized vs. these. Competition is on yield/ha and cost/T CPO, not product differentiation.
Implication → AALI must continuously improve FFB yield/ha and reduce CPO production cost to stay competitive. The replanting cycle (palms unproductive after ~25 years) is the key operational challenge 2025–2030.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia produces ~58 % of global palm oil (CPO), Southeast Asia's largest commodity export by value, but the sector faces EUDR compliance risk, biodiesel policy shifts, and a replanting-driven productivity cycle.