Equal · Financial Report

AKR Corporindo

AKRA/FY2021–FY2025/Educational Analysis/IDR/Data source · 2026-06-20

ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Tax burden	0.80x	0.78x	0.80x	0.90x	0.83x
Interest burden	0.96x	0.98x	0.98x	0.97x	0.98x
Operating margindriver	5.6%	6.6%	8.4%	6.6%	6.7%
Asset turnover	1.09x	1.75x	1.39x	1.17x	1.26x
Leverage (equity mult.)	2.08x	2.07x	2.16x	2.26x	2.34x
= Return on Equity (consolidated)	9.8%	18.3%	19.8%	15.2%	15.8%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	9.8%	18.6%	20.2%	15.7%	16.2%

Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.

Liquidity

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities)	1.29x	1.40x	1.44x	1.56x	1.47x
Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities)	0.81x	0.94x	1.07x	1.02x	1.06x
Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities)	0.28x	0.38x	0.52x	0.40x	0.40x
Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities)	Rp 2.7 T	Rp 4.6 T	Rp 5.6 T	Rp 7.5 T	Rp 7.5 T

Leverage & Solvency

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity)	0.27x	0.23x	0.33x	0.36x	0.37x
Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity)	1.08x	1.07x	1.16x	1.26x	1.34x
Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets)	0.13x	0.11x	0.15x	0.16x	0.16x
Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash)	Rp 457 M	-Rp 1.3 T	-Rp 1.9 T	-Rp 49 M	-Rp 692 M
Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense)	25.34x	54.63x	51.68x	30.16x	41.57x
Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity)	2.08x	2.07x	2.16x	2.26x	2.34x

Profitability

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue)	8.9%	8.9%	10.6%	9.0%	8.9%
Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue)	5.6%	6.6%	8.4%	6.6%	6.7%
Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue)	4.3%	5.1%	6.6%	5.7%	5.4%
EBITDA(EBIT + D&A)	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 3.5 T	Rp 3.9 T	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 3.5 T
EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue)	7.0%	7.4%	9.3%	7.7%	7.7%
Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets)	4.7%	8.8%	9.2%	6.7%	6.8%
Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners))	11.9%	21.9%	24.7%	19.2%	20.3%
Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax)	0.80x	0.78x	0.80x	0.90x	0.83x
Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT)	0.96x	0.98x	0.98x	0.97x	0.98x
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	9.8%	18.6%	20.2%	15.7%	16.2%

Operations & Efficiency

Turnover	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets)	1.09x	1.75x	1.39x	1.17x	1.26x
Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory)	5.20x	8.29x	7.91x	4.88x	6.34x
Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables)	5.73x	7.96x	6.57x	5.12x	4.82x
Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables)	3.02x	4.69x	3.95x	3.39x	3.40x

Conversion Period	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS)	70.2 days	44.0 days	46.1 days	74.8 days	57.6 days
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue)	63.7 days	45.8 days	55.5 days	71.3 days	75.7 days
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS)	121.0 days	77.9 days	92.4 days	107.7 days	107.4 days
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO)	12.9 days	12.0 days	9.3 days	38.4 days	25.9 days

Cash Flow

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex)	Rp 2.7 T	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 2.9 T	Rp 159 M	Rp 2.9 T

Valuation

price as-of 2026-07-31fundamentals: FY2025

Price Rp 1,465 · market cap Rp 29 T

Multiple	AKRA	Peer median	vs median
P/E	11.73x	11.73x	0%
P/B	2.39x	2.39x	0%
P/S	0.63x	0.63x	0%
EV/EBITDA	9.02x	9.02x	0%
EV/EBIT	10.36x	10.36x	0%
EV/Sales	0.69x	0.69x	0%
FCF Yield	9.91%	9.91%	0%
Dividend Yield	6.83%	6.83%	0%

Only 1 peers are covered here, so the median is itself one of the members. A 0% gap can simply mean AKRA sits at the median.

EV = mkt cap Rp 29 T + debt Rp 5.7 T − cash Rp 6.4 T + minority interest Rp 3.5 T = Rp 32 T

What the price implies

At today’s price, the market is paying for 5.9%/yr FCF growth (2.9% at 12.0% to 8.7% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 1.6% FCF · 15.7% revenue.

Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.

Forward DCF (glass-box)

This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.

Assumption	Value	Basis
Rf (risk-free)	7.26%	Indonesia 10Y government bond, re-verified 31 Jul 2026
ERP (Rm − Rf)	6.69%	Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%)
β	0.47 → 0.54	Oil/Gas Distribution (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.20
Cost of equity	10.90%	Rf + β × ERP
Cost of debt	7.66%	median interest coverage 41.6x (EBIT ÷ interest, FY2021–FY2025) implies a Aaa/AAA synthetic rating and a 0.40% default spread, over a 7.26% base (Indonesia 10Y 7.26%, already the sovereign rate). Its BOOK rate is 1.3%, which is what past debt actually costs; the gap is legacy or subsidised borrowing, not the rate on new debt. Spread table: A. Damodaran, Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread, January 2026 data update (large non-financial service firms)
Tax rate	19.9%	median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest)
WACC	10.12%	84% E × CoE + 16% D × Kd × (1 − t)
Revenue growth (yr 1, fading)	15.7%	delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 15.7%, fading linearly to terminal
EBIT margin	7.2%	mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs
D&A / revenue	1.0%	mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs
Capex / revenue	2.3%	mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years. The terminal year instead FUNDS ITS OWN GROWTH: in stable growth g = reinvestment rate x return on capital, and returns are assumed to converge to the 10.1% cost of capital, so the perpetuity reinvests 24.7% of NOPAT and terminal capex is 2.5% of revenue against depreciation of 1.0%. Both simpler rules are wrong in opposite directions: holding the historical ratio charges a build phase in perpetuity, while setting capex equal to depreciation hands the company 2.5% growth forever for no new capital. Because returns converge to the cost of capital, terminal growth here is value-neutral
ΔNWC / Δrevenue	-2.2%	median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP)
Terminal growth	2.5%	BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%)

Growth path

year 1 → fading to terminal over 5 yrs15.7%

EBIT margin7.2%

WACC10.1%

Terminal growth2.5%

Explicit years5

FCFF drivers

FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − capex − ΔNWC

Each default is the company's own historical average, which describes the phase it happened to be in. Switch a driver to Per-year when that phase is ending: a company mid-build does not spend at its peak rate forever, and one in a capex pause does not stay there. The terminal year keeps its own ratios, so a taper you enter here changes the explicit window and leaves the perpetuity coherent.

Capex

% of revenue2.3%

D&A

% of revenue1.0%

ΔNWC

% of the CHANGE in revenue-2.2%

Year	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	T∞
Growth	15.7%	12.4%	9.1%	5.8%	2.5%	2.5%
Revenue	Rp 53 T	Rp 60 T	Rp 65 T	Rp 69 T	Rp 71 T	Rp 73 T
EBIT	Rp 3.8 T	Rp 4.3 T	Rp 4.7 T	Rp 5.0 T	Rp 5.1 T	Rp 5.2 T
NOPAT	Rp 3.1 T	Rp 3.5 T	Rp 3.8 T	Rp 4.0 T	Rp 4.1 T	Rp 4.2 T
+ D&A	Rp 531 M	Rp 597 M	Rp 651 M	Rp 689 M	Rp 706 M	Rp 724 M
− Capex	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 1.5 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.8 T
− ΔNWC	-Rp 161 M	-Rp 147 M	-Rp 121 M	-Rp 84 M	-Rp 38 M	-Rp 39 M
FCFF	Rp 2.5 T	Rp 2.8 T	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 3.2 T	Rp 3.2 T	Rp 3.2 T
PV	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 2.0 T	Rp 26 T

Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5 · equity = EV − net debt − minority · per share = equity ÷ shares outstanding

EV = PV(explicit) Rp 11 T + PV(TV) Rp 26 T = Rp 37 T · TV 70% of EV · − net debt -Rp 692 M − minority Rp 3.5 T = equity Rp 34 T ÷ shares outstanding

Model output: Rp 1,714/share (+17% vs price Rp 1,465)· exit-multiple check (9.0x): Rp 2,058

Under these assumptions the model lands 17% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.

Sensitivity (per share, Rp)

g \ WACC	9.1%	10.1%	11.1%
2.0%	1,854	1,608	1,416
2.5%	1,995	1,714	1,499
3.0%	2,158	1,835	1,592

Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.

Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.

Macro backdropfull backdrop + sensitivity map →

BI Rate 5.75%IDR/USD 18,05810Y government bond yield 7.26%Inflation 3.34%(as-of 2026-07-31)

Oil ↑(H)GDP/consumption ↑(M)

Income Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	Rp 26 T	Rp 48 T	Rp 42 T	Rp 39 T	Rp 46 T
Cost of Goods Sold	Rp 23 T	Rp 43 T	Rp 38 T	Rp 35 T	Rp 42 T
Gross Profit	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 4.2 T	Rp 4.5 T	Rp 3.5 T	Rp 4.1 T
Operating Income (EBIT)	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 3.1 T	Rp 3.5 T	Rp 2.6 T	Rp 3.1 T
Interest Expense	Rp 57 M	Rp 57 M	Rp 68 M	Rp 85 M	Rp 74 M
Net Income	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 2.8 T	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 2.5 T
Net Income Attributable to Owners	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 2.8 T	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 2.5 T
Depreciation & Amortization	Rp 357 M	Rp 378 M	Rp 392 M	Rp 416 M	Rp 455 M

Balance Sheet

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Equivalents	Rp 2.6 T	Rp 4.3 T	Rp 6.5 T	Rp 5.4 T	Rp 6.4 T
Accounts Receivable	Rp 4.5 T	Rp 6.0 T	Rp 6.4 T	Rp 7.6 T	Rp 9.5 T
Inventory	Rp 4.5 T	Rp 5.2 T	Rp 4.8 T	Rp 7.2 T	Rp 6.6 T
Current Assets	Rp 12 T	Rp 16 T	Rp 18 T	Rp 21 T	Rp 23 T
Total Assets	Rp 24 T	Rp 27 T	Rp 30 T	Rp 33 T	Rp 37 T
Accounts Payable	Rp 7.8 T	Rp 9.2 T	Rp 9.5 T	Rp 10 T	Rp 12 T
Current Liabilities	Rp 9.3 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 13 T	Rp 13 T	Rp 16 T
Total Liabilities	Rp 12 T	Rp 14 T	Rp 16 T	Rp 18 T	Rp 21 T
Total Interest-Bearing Debt	Rp 3.1 T	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 4.6 T	Rp 5.3 T	Rp 5.7 T
Total Equity	Rp 11 T	Rp 13 T	Rp 14 T	Rp 15 T	Rp 16 T
Equity Attributable to Owners	Rp 9.3 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 12 T

Cash Flow Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	Rp 2.9 T	Rp 2.6 T	Rp 3.5 T	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 3.9 T
Capital Expenditure	Rp 242 M	Rp 290 M	Rp 649 M	Rp 1.2 T	Rp 1.1 T

Company Deep Analysis

Reviewed: 2026-06-28

Analyst Verdict

AKR Corporindo is Indonesia's largest private industrial petroleum distributor, supplying fuel oil (BBM) to mining, plantation and industrial customers across Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Eastern Indonesia who sit outside Pertamina's retail network, alongside a basic-chemicals distribution business and the JIIPE (Java Integrated Industrial and Port Estate) industrial estate in Gresik, East Java. The financial model is the classic distribution DuPont: NM ~4–7% × asset turnover ~1.1–1.75× gives ROA 5–9%, which conservative leverage (D/E 0.23–0.37) amplifies into ROE of 12–25%. The FY22–23 peak (ROE 21–25%) combined high petroleum volumes, the post-Ukraine energy-price spike and JIIPE land sales. FY24 then saw FCF crash to Rp159bn (against a normal Rp2.7–2.9tn) as JIIPE infrastructure capex surged, before recovering to Rp2.9tn in FY25. JIIPE is the long-duration differentiator: as Indonesia's largest integrated industrial estate and SEZ, it is drawing manufacturing FDI that should throw off recurring land and facility income for decades. In short it is a high-ROE distribution business with a long-dated industrial-estate option embedded in the equity.

Business Model

AKRA operates three businesses. (1) Petroleum Distribution: supplies industrial BBM (Solar, Pertamax-type) to mining companies, plantations and industrial customers in remote areas; these customers pay a premium vs Pertamina retail because AKRA provides reliable supply chain logistics to locations that Pertamina's retail network doesn't serve. (2) Basic Chemicals: industrial chemicals (chlor-alkali, solvents, fertilizer inputs) distribution. (3) JIIPE: a 2,900-ha integrated industrial estate and deep-sea port in Gresik (near Surabaya), East Java; designated as Indonesia's Special Economic Zone (KEK). JIIPE provides industrial land plots, factory buildings, logistics services and utilities to manufacturing investors, generating land sales + recurring facility income. Controlled by the Soegiarto family (Soegiarto Adikoesoemo group).

Segments

Petroleum distribution (~70–80% of revenue, NM ~3–5%, high volume) and basic chemicals (~10–15%, slightly higher margin), together delivering AT of 1.1–1.75× that converts thin NM into 20%+ ROE. JIIPE is a smaller but high-value segment: lumpy land sales create non-recurring NM spikes (FY23 NM 6.6% partly reflects JIIPE land sales) while the recurring infrastructure business is growing. JIIPE capex creates FCF volatility (FY24 FCF Rp159bn vs FY23 Rp2.9tn).

Value Chain & Positioning

Petroleum: Pertamina/Shell/BP crude refinery → AKRA bulk purchase → tank farm storage (AKRA-owned terminals) → tanker/truck delivery → industrial customer. Chemicals: import → storage → blending → distribution to industrial buyers. JIIPE: land acquisition + site preparation → investor attraction (SEZ incentives) → land sale + service concession → recurring estate management. The value accrues where logistics infrastructure is hard to replicate: AKRA's remote-area tank farms and delivery capability are the barrier.

Competitive Forces (Porter’s 5)

Supplier powerMedium

How much leverage input/funding providers have over pricing.

Petroleum supply comes from Pertamina (dominant Indonesian refiner) and import sources; AKRA is a large bulk buyer with some negotiating power but ultimately price-taking on the commodity. Chemical supply from global chemical producers.

Implication → Petroleum margin is a spread (AKRA's logistics premium over commodity cost): Pertamina pricing and global oil prices set the floor. Spread compression is the core operating risk.

Buyer powerLow

How much leverage customers have to push prices down.

Mining, plantation and industrial customers in remote Kalimantan/Sulawesi have very few alternative fuel suppliers: AKRA's remote-area logistics infrastructure gives it near-captive customers who pay a premium for reliable delivery.

Implication → Industrial fuel customers in remote locations are AKRA's most captive segment: the logistics moat (tank farms + delivery trucks in remote areas) translates directly into pricing power and stable margins.

Threat of new entryLow

How easily new competitors can enter the market.

Building AKRA's network of remote-area tank farms, terminal infrastructure, delivery trucks and long-term customer relationships took decades; regulatory approvals for petroleum storage and distribution add further barriers. JIIPE's 2,900-ha port-connected industrial estate cannot be replicated nearby.

Implication → AKRA's petroleum distribution network in remote Indonesia is a genuine operational moat: the capex and regulatory effort required to replicate it deters new entry. JIIPE's SEZ status is government-conferred and unique.

Threat of substitutesLow

Risk that alternative products/services replace demand.

Industrial diesel and fuel oil have few substitutes for remote mining/plantation operations in the near term; electrification of mining equipment is a 10–15 year transition. Chemical distribution alternatives are limited for specialized industrial inputs.

Implication → Petroleum demand from AKRA's industrial customers is structurally resilient for the medium term; the energy transition is a long-dated risk that gives AKRA time to pivot through JIIPE and renewable energy logistics.

Competitive rivalryLow

Intensity of competition among existing players.

Remote-area industrial petroleum distribution: limited rivals (Pertamina Patra Niaga has broader retail but limited remote-area industrial service; Total, Shell serve urban markets). Basic chemicals: specialized distributors but AKRA's scale is dominant. JIIPE: no direct comparables as Indonesia's largest port-integrated industrial SEZ.

Implication → AKRA operates in a low-rivalry niche (remote industrial fuel) and a unique-asset segment (JIIPE SEZ). These are the highest-quality elements of the portfolio; the commodity trading portion (bulk petroleum price arbitrage) is more competitive.

Moat / Competitive Edge

Medium. AKRA's moat is its remote-area petroleum logistics infrastructure (tank farms, terminals, truck fleets in Kalimantan/Sulawesi): decades to build, high regulatory barriers, captive industrial customers who pay a premium for reliable supply. JIIPE is a second moat: a 2,900-ha industrial estate with deep-sea port access and SEZ status; unique in Indonesia and impossible to replicate nearby. The constraint: petroleum distribution margins are spread-based and thin; a sustained oil price collapse or Pertamina subsidy policy change can compress spreads rapidly. AT 1.1–1.75× and D/E 0.23–0.37 are the execution discipline that converts thin margins into 20%+ ROE.

Key Drivers & Sensitivities

Industrial petroleum volume (mining + plantation activity)
Revenue scales directly with volume delivered to mining/plantation customers. Indonesian coal and palm oil production cycles drive AKRA's fuel demand: coal output peaked FY22–23 (helping AT peak at 1.75×) and normalized in FY24–25 (AT 1.17–1.26×). A 10% volume swing shifts AKRA revenue ~8–10%.
JIIPE land sales and estate income (lumpy, non-recurring)
JIIPE industrial land sales to manufacturing investors create lump-sum NM spikes (FY23 NM 6.6% vs FY25 5.4% partly reflects JIIPE sales timing). Long-term, JIIPE recurring facility/utility income is a margin improver with low capex once land is sold and infrastructure is built. Each large JIIPE land transaction (e.g., Chandra Asri, IFFCO) adds Rp200–500bn in one-off profit.
Asset turnover / distribution efficiency
AT of 1.1–1.75× is the key ROE amplifier in AKRA's DuPont structure: NM ~5% × AT ~1.4× = ROA ~7% → ROE ~20% at D/E 0.30. Any AT compression (slower volumes, inventory build) directly reduces ROE proportionately.
Petroleum spread (AKRA margin over commodity cost)
AKRA's petroleum GM (~9%) is a logistics and service spread over commodity cost; when petroleum prices spike (FY22: AT 1.75×, spread widened on high-price volumes), spreads widen; when prices fall sharply, spread compression can reduce NM significantly. FY24 GM was 9.0% vs FY23's 10.6% (higher-margin JIIPE sales year).
JIIPE capex cycle (FCF timing risk)
FY24 FCF crashed to Rp159bn (from Rp2.9tn) as JIIPE infrastructure spending surged ahead of new tenant inflows: this is a pattern that will recur with each major JIIPE expansion phase. FCF is not smooth; capex years look like value destruction but are investment for future recurring income.

Linkages

Indonesian coal and palm oil mining/plantation activity (petroleum volume demand), global oil price (spread economics), FDI into Indonesian manufacturing (JIIPE land demand), and regulatory environment (Pertamina pricing policy, fuel subsidy changes, SEZ incentive continuity). Very low D/E (0.23–0.37) and IC 25–55× make AKRA essentially immune to interest rate moves: the operational drivers dominate.

Recent Developments

FY21–25: GM stable ~9% (FY23 peak at 10.6% reflects JIIPE mix); NM 4.3%→6.6% (FY23 peak)→5.4% (FY25). ROE: 11.9%→24.7% (FY23 peak)→20.3% (FY25); the DuPont AT effect (1.09→1.75× peak→1.26×) drives the ROE swing. ROIC: 9.8%→20.2% (FY23)→16.2% (FY25). FCF: Rp2.7tn normal → Rp159bn (FY24 JIIPE capex) → Rp2.9tn (FY25 recovery). D/E stable 0.23–0.37. IC 25–55× (essentially unlevered operationally).

Regulation

Petroleum distribution: regulated by BPH Migas (fuel distribution licensing, storage permits, price reporting) and Ministry of Energy/ESDM; subsidy fuel (Solar PSO) pricing set by government. Chemical distribution: Ministry of Trade (chemical import permits, hazardous material regulations). JIIPE: Ministry of Industry and BKPM (investment agency) for SEZ designation and incentive management; Gresik local government for permits. Listed on IDX. As a petroleum distributor, AKRA has stricter operational safety requirements (Migas safety standards, HSSE protocols).

ESG & Sustainability

Material issues: (1) Petroleum distribution carbon footprint (AKRA enables fossil fuel consumption for industrial Indonesia; a transition risk as coal and plantation activity faces ESG scrutiny); (2) JIIPE environmental impact (industrial estate on East Java coast; marine/port environmental management, industrial effluent from tenants); (3) chemical distribution HSSE (hazardous material handling). Governance: Soegiarto family (Soegiarto Adikoesoemo) controls; professional management runs operations. JIIPE's SEZ hosts manufacturing including fertilizer and petrochemicals: environmental permits are material. Positively: JIIPE is designed to attract clean manufacturing (EV battery, renewable energy components) as Indonesia diversifies industrial base.

Risks

Petroleum spread compression from Pertamina pricing policy changes or fuel subsidy restructuring
Indonesian coal/plantation activity slowdown reducing industrial fuel volumes (AT compression → ROE compression)
JIIPE land sales lumpiness creating FCF volatility (FY24 experience: Rp2.9tn→Rp159bn)
Global oil price volatility affecting inventory values and spread economics
Energy transition reducing long-term industrial petroleum demand (10–15 year horizon, non-immediate)

Outlook & What to Watch

A high-ROE distribution business (20%+ ROE, ROIC 16%) with a low-leverage fortress balance sheet (D/E 0.37, IC 42×) and embedded JIIPE optionality. The DuPont formula is durable, thin margins × high turnover, as long as mining/plantation industrial activity remains robust. JIIPE is the long-duration value creator: each phase of land sales and infrastructure development unlocks recurring income. The near-term FCF watch: another JIIPE capex surge could replicate FY24's cash flow trough. (Interpretation, not a forecast.)

Key KPIs

Asset Turnover: 1.1–1.75×: the key ROE driver in AKRA's DuPont
ROE: 12–25% despite ~9% gross margin: distribution DuPont at work
JIIPE Land Sales: Non-recurring lump-sum: NM and ROE amplifier in peak years
FCF: Rp2.7–2.9tn normal; Rp159bn in FY24 (JIIPE capex spike)
D/E: 0.23–0.37: conservative leverage, IC 25–55×

Sources

Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.