…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.80x | 0.81x | 0.80x | 0.80x | 0.78x |
| Interest burden | 0.88x | 0.95x | 0.96x | 0.97x | 0.97x |
| Operating margin | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| Asset turnover | 3.10x | 3.15x | 3.12x | 3.05x | 2.98x |
| Leverage (equity mult.)driver | 2.90x | 2.68x | 2.18x | 2.19x | 2.20x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 20.4% | 24.9% | 21.7% | 17.8% | 17.6% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 23.2% | 26.2% | 22.5% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 0.87x | 0.90x | 1.00x | 1.04x | 1.07x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 0.33x | 0.38x | 0.42x | 0.44x | 0.42x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.20x | 0.22x | 0.24x | 0.25x | 0.23x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | -Rp 2.2 T | -Rp 1.7 T | Rp 63 M | Rp 872 M | Rp 1.4 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.33x | 0.27x | 0.12x | 0.11x | 0.14x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 1.90x | 1.68x | 1.18x | 1.19x | 1.20x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.11x | 0.10x | 0.05x | 0.05x | 0.06x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | -Rp 202 M | -Rp 762 M | -Rp 2.2 T | -Rp 3.0 T | -Rp 2.0 T |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 8.50x | 20.26x | 27.12x | 31.79x | 32.97x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 2.90x | 2.68x | 2.18x | 2.19x | 2.20x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 20.7% | 20.7% | 21.6% | 21.5% | 21.9% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 5.9 T | Rp 5.9 T | Rp 6.5 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 20.9% | 25.4% | 23.5% | 19.2% | 18.9% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.80x | 0.81x | 0.80x | 0.80x | 0.78x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.88x | 0.95x | 0.96x | 0.97x | 0.97x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 23.2% | 26.2% | 22.5% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 3.10x | 3.15x | 3.12x | 3.05x | 2.98x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 7.69x | 8.42x | 8.31x | 7.89x | 7.42x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 48.22x | 44.82x | 41.59x | 39.42x | 39.43x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 6.90x | 7.33x | 7.64x | 6.96x | 6.85x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 47.5 days | 43.3 days | 43.9 days | 46.3 days | 49.2 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 7.6 days | 8.1 days | 8.8 days | 9.3 days | 9.3 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 52.9 days | 49.8 days | 47.8 days | 52.5 days | 53.3 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 2.2 days | 1.7 days | 4.9 days | 3.1 days | 5.2 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 4.3 T | Rp 5.3 T | Rp 5.0 T |
Price Rp 1,325 · market cap Rp 54 T
| Multiple | AMRT | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.96x | 11.17x | +43% |
| P/B | 3.02x | 1.97x | +53% |
| P/S | 0.43x | 0.53x | -19% |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.27x | 6.25x | +32% |
| EV/EBIT | 11.89x | 7.91x | +50% |
| EV/Sales | 0.42x | 0.52x | -18% |
| FCF Yield | 9.14% | 10.69% | -14% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.57% | 3.37% | -24% |
EV = mkt cap Rp 54 T + debt Rp 2.7 T − cash Rp 4.7 T + minority interest Rp 1.4 T = Rp 54 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 5.5%/yr FCF growth (2.5% at 12.0% to 8.3% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 2.3% FCF · 10.5% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
Base year contains named one-off item(s): FY2025: No material accounting one-offs in the five-year record; FY2024: Returns peaked in FY2022 and have drifted down since. The EBIT basis screens out most non-operating items, but read the Earnings Quality section before trusting the base margin.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.80 → 0.83 | Retail (Grocery and Food) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.05 |
| Cost of equity | 12.83% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 5.07% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 20.0% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 12.41% | 95% E × CoE + 5% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 10.5% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 10.5%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 3.7% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 1.5% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 2.3% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 1.5% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 4.2% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 140 T | Rp 152 T | Rp 162 T | Rp 169 T | Rp 173 T | Rp 178 T |
| EBIT | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 5.6 T | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 6.3 T | Rp 6.4 T | Rp 6.6 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 4.2 T | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 5.0 T | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 5.3 T |
| + D&A | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 2.7 T |
| − Capex | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 2.7 T |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 557 M | Rp 499 M | Rp 414 M | Rp 305 M | Rp 177 M | Rp 181 M |
| FCFF | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 5.1 T |
| PV | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 29 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 11 T + PV(TV) Rp 29 T = Rp 39 T · TV 73% of EV · − net debt -Rp 2.0 T − minority Rp 1.4 T
Model output: Rp 975/share (-26% vs price Rp 1,325)· exit-multiple check (6.3x): Rp 1,044
Under these assumptions the model lands 26% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 11.4% | 12.4% | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 1,045 | 935 | 845 |
| 2.5% | 1,096 | 975 | 877 |
| 3.0% | 1,152 | 1,019 | 912 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 85 T | Rp 97 T | Rp 107 T | Rp 118 T | Rp 127 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 67 T | Rp 77 T | Rp 84 T | Rp 93 T | Rp 99 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 18 T | Rp 20 T | Rp 23 T | Rp 25 T | Rp 28 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.5 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 322 M | Rp 183 M | Rp 163 M | Rp 128 M | Rp 137 M |
| Net Income | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.4 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.4 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.0 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 4.7 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 3.2 T |
| Inventory | Rp 8.8 T | Rp 9.1 T | Rp 10 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 13 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 14 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 20 T | Rp 22 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 27 T | Rp 31 T | Rp 34 T | Rp 39 T | Rp 43 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 9.8 T | Rp 10 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 14 T |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 16 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 19 T | Rp 21 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 18 T | Rp 19 T | Rp 19 T | Rp 21 T | Rp 23 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.7 T |
| Total Equity | Rp 9.4 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 19 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 9.2 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 18 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 6.3 T | Rp 7.1 T | Rp 6.8 T | Rp 8.1 T | Rp 7.7 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 2.7 T |
AMRT gross margin: 20.7 % (2021) → 20.7 % (2022) → 21.6 % (2023) → 21.5 % (2024) → 21.9 % (2025); remarkably stable. OPM: 3.2 % → 3.8 % → 4.1 % → 3.4 % → 3.6 %. Net margin: 2.3 % → 2.9 % → 3.2 % → 2.7 % → 2.7 %. ROE: 20.9 % → 25.4 % → 23.5 % → 19.2 % → 18.9 %. ROIC: 23.2 % → 26.2 % → 22.5 % → 18.4 % → 18.1 %. D/E: 0.33 → 0.27 → 0.12 → 0.11 → 0.14. FCF (T IDR): +4.55 → +4.90 → +4.29 → +5.28 → +4.98. Interest coverage: 8.5× → 20.3× → 27.1× → 31.8× → 33.0×. Asset turnover: 3.10 → 3.15 → 3.12 → 3.05 → 2.98×. The ROIC decline from 26 % to 18 % reflects network maturation: incremental new stores earn lower unit economics as prime Java locations fill. Even so, 18 % ROIC comfortably exceeds retail cost of capital (~11–12 %). The IC surge (8.5× → 33×) is debt paydown + earnings growth combined. AMRT is one of the highest-quality compounders on IDX.
The unit is a minimarket of a few hundred square metres placed within walking distance of housing, not a destination format. Alfamart went from 20,120 stores at end-2024 to 20,925 by the third quarter of 2025, adding about 805 outlets or 4.0 percent in a year.
EconomicsEach store is cheap enough that capital spending is only 2.1 percent of revenue, so the growth engine is replication rather than a large project. Density is the moat: at this outlet count the competitive advantage is walking distance and replenishment logistics, not price.
Suppliers ship on credit averaging 53.3 days while the store holds inventory for 49.2 days and customers pay in cash. That ordering is the entire financial model.
EconomicsBecause payables exceed inventory days, the supply chain funds the shelf. The cash conversion cycle was 2.2, 1.6, 4.9, 3.1 and 5.2 days across FY2021 to FY2025, which is effectively zero working capital.
Gross margin is 21.9 percent and operating margin only 3.6 percent, because rent, wages and logistics consume most of the gross spread. Net margin was 2.7 percent in FY2025.
EconomicsDo not read a thin margin as a weak business. Cash collection is immediate and stock turns roughly seven times a year, so the same rupiah of capital earns that thin margin many times over.
Because growth releases supplier credit rather than absorbing cash, new stores are largely self-funding. Free cash flow was positive in every one of the five years even while roughly 800 outlets a year were added.
EconomicsThat is the compounding loop, and it is why debt to equity fell from 32.5 percent to 14.0 percent while the store count kept rising. Expansion here strengthens the balance sheet instead of straining it.
Cost structureAlmost entirely cost of goods, then almost entirely fixed store costs. Cost of revenue was IDR 99.0tn of IDR 126.7tn in FY2025, giving a 21.9 percent gross margin that has been remarkably steady between 20.7 and 21.9 percent for five years. Operating margin of 3.6 percent means about 18 points of that gross spread goes to rent, wages, utilities and distribution. That leaves very little tolerance for error: a one point move in gross margin swings operating profit by roughly a quarter. Interest is negligible at IDR 137.3bn against IDR 4.5tn of operating profit, cover of 33 times.
Cash cycleThe shortest cycle in the roster and the reason the model works: 2.2, 1.6, 4.9, 3.1 and 5.2 days across FY2021 to FY2025. The composition is the point. Inventory sits 49.2 days, receivables are only 9.3 days because most sales are cash, and payables run 53.3 days, so suppliers finance more than the entire inventory position. Compare that with HMSP on this site, which funds 85 days of leaf itself at a 74 day cycle. Same country, same consumer, opposite working-capital direction, and it explains why one business can grow without capital and the other cannot.
Unit economicsThis page is the mirror image of BREN, and reading the two together teaches the whole identity. BREN earned a 71 percent operating margin and produced single-digit returns because assets turned only 0.16 times. AMRT earns a 2.7 percent NET margin and produces an 18.9 percent return on equity because assets turn 2.98 times and the cash cycle is five days. Return on invested capital of 18.1 percent sits close to return on equity, so leverage is not doing the work either. Margin alone tells you nothing about a business. Margin multiplied by turnover, adjusted for how much capital the cycle ties up, tells you almost everything, and it is why a shop selling instant noodles at a two percent margin can compound faster than a power plant selling electricity at seventy.
FMCG multinationals (Unilever, Nestle, P&G) have brand pull: consumers demand their products regardless of shelf placement. However, AMRT's 21,000+ store scale provides significant countervailing leverage: suppliers need Alfamart to reach mass market. Private-label expansion can further reduce dependency on branded SKUs.
Implication → Supplier power is managed, not structural. AMRT's scale is the primary shield; private-label expansion is an OPM lever.
Individual consumers transact in IDR 10,000–50,000 basket sizes with no negotiating power. AMRT sets retail prices. Location convenience (within walking distance) drives loyalty, not price negotiation.
Implication → AMRT has retail price-setting power within competitive context. Location density is the retention mechanism.
Replicating 21,000+ stores with established DC infrastructure, supplier contracts, and franchisee pipelines requires a decade and massive capital. AMRT and Indomaret have locked up most prime Java neighbourhood locations. Foreign entrants (Lawson, FamilyMart, Circle K) operate at small scale and cannot match the supplier economics of the two incumbents.
Implication → High structural barrier in established markets. Outer Islands growth markets have lower barriers but AMRT is already expanding there.
Quick commerce (GoPay/Tokopedia/GrabMart, 10–20 min delivery) threatens the top-up shopping trip in dense urban areas. Wet markets and traditional warung capture fresh produce. Social commerce (TikTok Shop) disrupts FMCG brand sales. However, bill payment and digital services (pulsa, e-wallet top-up, BPJS) keep footfall for transactions requiring physical presence.
Implication → AMRT must evolve stores into physical fintech/service nodes to defend against pure-play e-grocery. The bill payment + government services anchor is key to sustaining footfall.
Indomaret (PT Indomarco Prismatama, Salim Group, unlisted) operates ~18,000–19,000 stores in an identical format: same product mix, same pricing, same locations. The Alfamart–Indomaret duopoly competes store-by-store for neighbourhood rental contracts. Neither can meaningfully differentiate on product or price. Both benefit from blocking new entrants.
Implication → Duopoly rivalry keeps OPM structurally thin (3–4 %). Location density is the battleground. Both players have aligned incentives to maintain market structure and block disruption.
Among the cleanest records on the site, and the cash proves it rather than the commentary. Operating cash flow covered net income 3.29, 2.47, 2.00, 2.56 and 2.25 times across FY2021 to FY2025, never once below twice, which is the signature of a business collecting in cash and paying suppliers later. Free cash flow was POSITIVE in all five years at IDR 4.5tn, 4.9tn, 4.3tn, 5.3tn and 5.0tn while revenue grew from IDR 84.9tn to IDR 126.7tn, so nearly fifty percent revenue growth was delivered without consuming cash. There are no acquisition gains, no revaluations, and minority interests are small at 7.0 percent of equity, so reported profit is close to owners profit. The one honest caution is thinness rather than quality: at a 3.6 percent operating margin, small movements in gross margin or store-level costs move profit a long way, and returns have already drifted down from 25.4 percent return on equity in FY2022 to 18.9 percent in FY2025 even as the store count rose. That drift, not any accounting question, is what to monitor.
| Period | One-off item | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | No material accounting one-offs in the five-year record | Stated deliberately. Revenue rose from IDR 84.9tn to IDR 126.7tn and operating profit from IDR 2.7tn to IDR 4.5tn on trading rather than gains, with gross margin never moving outside 20.7 to 21.9 percent. The only notable non-trading movement is the balance sheet: debt to equity fell 32.5 percent to 14.0 percent and the group ended FY2025 in a NET CASH position of about IDR 2.0tn. |
| FY2024 | Returns peaked in FY2022 and have drifted down since | Return on equity ran 20.9, 25.4, 23.5, 19.2 and 18.9 percent while return on invested capital ran 23.2, 26.2, 22.5, 18.4 and 18.1 percent, so the decline is in the business and not in the funding. Operating margin fell from 4.1 percent in FY2023 to 3.4 percent in FY2024 before recovering slightly to 3.6 percent. With real wages under pressure and consumers trading down, the question is whether new stores are being added into thinner catchments. |
Cash conversionOne of the strongest structural conversions in the roster. Operating cash flow exceeded net income by at least two times in every year, cumulative five-year free cash flow was about IDR 24.0tn, and the group moved to a net cash position while opening roughly 800 stores a year. The mechanism is not efficiency, it is sequencing: cash arrives at the till before the supplier invoice falls due, so scale generates float. Judge this business on store additions, same-store sales and gross margin stability, because the cash statement will look healthy almost regardless.
A builder that does not need outside money, which is rare enough to be the point. Revenue grew 49.3 percent over five years and the store base expanded every year, yet debt to equity FELL from 32.5 percent to 14.0 percent and the group finished FY2025 holding net cash of about IDR 2.0tn. Equity attributable to owners nearly doubled from IDR 9.2tn to IDR 18.0tn on retained earnings rather than issuance. Compare PANI on this site, where roughly IDR 29tn of equity growth came from shareholders rather than profit: AMRT is the opposite case, and the contrast is the cleanest illustration of what self-funded growth means.
DeploymentCapital goes almost entirely into new stores and the distribution centres that serve them, at 2.1 to 2.4 percent of revenue every year, which is IDR 1.8tn rising to IDR 2.7tn. Working capital absorbed almost nothing because the cycle is five days. Everything else went into de-levering: debt fell from IDR 3.1tn to IDR 1.9tn by FY2024 before rising modestly to IDR 2.7tn, while cash grew from IDR 3.3tn to IDR 4.7tn. Inventory rose from IDR 8.8tn to IDR 13.3tn, which is the real cost of adding outlets, and it was funded by supplier credit rather than borrowing. The allocation record is therefore simple and consistent: reinvest at roughly 2 percent of sales, hold no meaningful debt, and let the float pay for growth.
Returns trendReturns are high but trending the wrong way, and that tension is the investment case. Return on equity ran 20.9, 25.4, 23.5, 19.2 and 18.9 percent, with return on invested capital close behind at 23.2, 26.2, 22.5, 18.4 and 18.1 percent, so the fade is operational rather than financial. Operating margin peaked at 4.1 percent in FY2023 and sits at 3.6 percent, which on a base this thin is a meaningful compression. The market is nonetheless paying up. At IDR 1,325.14 the market capitalisation of about IDR 54.5tn puts AMRT on an EV/EBITDA of 8.27 times against a 6.25 times retail peer median, a 32 percent PREMIUM, while the forward model produces IDR 974.92 per share, 26 percent BELOW the traded price. Note the contrast with INDF on this site, which trades at a 29 percent discount to its peers on the same consumer economy: the market is paying a premium for a compounding, self-funding store network and a discount for a leveraged holding structure. Whether the premium survives depends on whether new outlets keep earning the old returns, and the drift from 25.4 to 18.9 percent is the early evidence that they may not. Both figures are model outputs, not targets.
Return on equity went 25.4 percent in FY2022 to 23.5, then 19.2 and 18.9 percent, with return on invested capital following the same path from 26.2 to 18.1 percent. Because the decline appears in both measures it is operational, not a funding effect. Operating margin peaked at 4.1 percent in FY2023 and is now 3.6 percent. On a 3.6 percent margin the arithmetic is unforgiving, and the most likely explanation is that incremental stores are opening into thinner catchments than the earlier ones.
Gross margin is 21.9 percent and operating margin 3.6 percent, so roughly 18 points of spread is consumed by rent, wages, utilities and logistics, almost all of which are fixed or rising. A single point of gross margin is worth about a quarter of operating profit. Minimum wage decisions, electricity tariffs and fuel costs therefore transmit to earnings far more forcefully here than at any higher-margin business on this site.
Payables of 53.3 days against inventory of 49.2 days is what produces a five-day cash cycle and self-funded growth. That is a commercial arrangement, not a contractual right. If supplier terms tightened materially the working-capital position would invert and expansion would suddenly require capital, which is the single largest hidden dependency in this business. It is worth watching precisely because nothing in the reported numbers signals stress today.
Retail sales grew 6.5 percent year on year in February 2026, the fastest since March 2024, yet real wages have trended down for several years and the middle class has been shrinking. Minimarkets gain traffic when shoppers move away from larger formats, but they also see smaller baskets and a mix shift toward the cheapest lines. Volume resilience does not translate into margin resilience, and the fade in returns is consistent with the second effect outweighing the first.
The market pays 8.27 times EV/EBITDA against a 6.25 times retail peer median, a 32 percent premium, while the forward model values the shares 26 percent BELOW the traded price. A premium can be entirely rational for a self-funding compounder, but it is being paid at the same time as return on equity has fallen from 25.4 to 18.9 percent over three years. The premium and the fade point in opposite directions, and only one of them can be right about the next five years.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's USD 57 B retail market is the largest in Southeast Asia, anchored by two minimarket giants (Alfamart and Indomaret), with premium lifestyle and specialty chains capturing the middle-class trade-up, and e-commerce reshaping >20 % of transactions.