Equal · Financial Report

Bumi Serpong Damai

BSDE/FY2021–FY2025/Educational Analysis/IDR/Data source · 2026-06-20

ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Tax burden	1.37x	1.03x	1.16x	1.26x	1.05x
Interest burdendriver	0.37x	0.59x	0.51x	0.71x	0.61x
Operating margin	34.3%	39.5%	28.6%	35.3%	30.8%
Asset turnover	0.12x	0.16x	0.17x	0.18x	0.16x
Leverage (equity mult.)	1.71x	1.71x	1.62x	1.61x	1.51x
= Return on Equity (consolidated)	3.8%	6.4%	4.7%	9.2%	4.8%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	6.6%	10.0%	7.6%	9.2%	6.7%

Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.

Liquidity

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities)	2.59x	2.61x	2.47x	2.14x	3.38x
Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities)	1.51x	1.50x	1.27x	0.96x	1.49x
Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities)	0.71x	0.86x	0.79x	0.62x	1.06x
Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities)	Rp 17 T	Rp 18 T	Rp 17 T	Rp 16 T	Rp 23 T

Leverage & Solvency

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity)	0.33x	0.31x	0.29x	0.31x	0.31x
Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity)	0.71x	0.71x	0.62x	0.61x	0.51x
Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets)	0.20x	0.18x	0.18x	0.19x	0.21x
Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash)	Rp 4.2 T	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 5.5 T	Rp 6.1 T
Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense)	1.60x	2.42x	2.04x	3.47x	2.59x
Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity)	1.71x	1.71x	1.62x	1.61x	1.51x

Profitability

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue)	60.3%	65.5%	54.5%	62.7%	61.5%
Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue)	34.3%	39.5%	28.6%	35.3%	30.8%
Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue)	17.6%	23.8%	16.9%	31.6%	19.9%
EBITDA(EBIT + D&A)	Rp 3.1 T	Rp 4.5 T	Rp 3.9 T	Rp 5.6 T	Rp 4.7 T
EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue)	39.9%	43.8%	33.4%	40.7%	37.1%
Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets)	2.2%	3.7%	2.9%	5.7%	3.2%
Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners))	4.3%	7.2%	5.3%	10.7%	5.8%
Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax)	1.37x	1.03x	1.16x	1.26x	1.05x
Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT)	0.37x	0.59x	0.51x	0.71x	0.61x
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	6.6%	10.0%	7.6%	9.2%	6.7%

Operations & Efficiency

Turnover	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets)	0.12x	0.16x	0.17x	0.18x	0.16x
Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory)	0.26x	0.28x	0.37x	0.31x	0.27x
Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables)	56.75x	56.38x	40.73x	124.09x	90.71x
Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables)	2.73x	3.91x	5.09x	3.80x	5.13x

Conversion Period	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS)	1,425.8 days	1,305.2 days	995.7 days	1,194.4 days	1,357.9 days
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue)	6.4 days	6.5 days	9.0 days	2.9 days	4.0 days
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS)	133.7 days	93.3 days	71.7 days	96.0 days	71.2 days
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO)	1,298.6 days	1,218.4 days	933.0 days	1,101.4 days	1,290.7 days

Cash Flow

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex)	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 794 M	Rp 847 M	-Rp 1.0 T

Valuation

price as-of 2026-07-31fundamentals: FY2025

Price Rp 570 · market cap Rp 12 T

Multiple	BSDE	Peer median	vs median
P/E	4.68x	6.24x	-25%
P/B	0.27x	0.45x	-40%
P/S	0.93x	0.89x	+5%
EV/EBITDA	5.67x	6.25x	-9%
EV/EBIT	6.83x	7.32x	-7%
EV/Sales	2.10x	2.34x	-10%
FCF Yield	-8.79%	-1.14%	+668%
Dividend Yield	—	3.47%(4/6)	—

EV = mkt cap Rp 12 T + debt Rp 16 T − cash Rp 10 T + minority interest Rp 8.8 T = Rp 27 T

What the price implies

not computable: negative or zero base-year FCF. Shown as-is rather than estimated.

Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.

Forward DCF (glass-box)

This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.

Assumption	Value	Basis
Rf (risk-free)	7.26%	Indonesia 10Y government bond, re-verified 31 Jul 2026
ERP (Rm − Rf)	6.69%	Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%)
β	0.48 → 1.00	Real Estate (Development) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 1.38
Cost of equity	13.92%	Rf + β × ERP
Cost of debt	8.64%	median interest coverage 2.4x (EBIT ÷ interest, FY2021–FY2025) implies a Ba1/BB+ synthetic rating and a 1.38% default spread, over a 7.26% base (Indonesia 10Y 7.26%, already the sovereign rate). Its BOOK rate is 9.3%, which is what past debt actually costs; the gap is legacy or subsidised borrowing, not the rate on new debt. Spread table: A. Damodaran, Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread, January 2026 data update (large non-financial service firms)
Tax rate	22.0%	statutory 22% (no clean effective-rate year in window)
WACC	9.76%	42% E × CoE + 58% D × Kd × (1 − t)
Revenue growth (yr 1, fading)	13.7%	delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 13.7%, fading linearly to terminal
EBIT margin	31.6%	mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs
D&A / revenue	5.5%	mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs
Capex / revenue	0.4%	mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years. The terminal year instead FUNDS ITS OWN GROWTH: in stable growth g = reinvestment rate x return on capital, and returns are assumed to converge to the 9.8% cost of capital, so the perpetuity reinvests 25.6% of NOPAT and terminal capex is 10.2% of revenue against depreciation of 5.5%. Both simpler rules are wrong in opposite directions: holding the historical ratio charges a build phase in perpetuity, while setting capex equal to depreciation hands the company 2.5% growth forever for no new capital. Because returns converge to the cost of capital, terminal growth here is value-neutral
ΔNWC / Δrevenue	65.1%	median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP)
Terminal growth	2.5%	BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%)

Growth path

year 1 → fading to terminal over 5 yrs13.7%

EBIT margin31.6%

WACC9.8%

Terminal growth2.5%

Explicit years5

FCFF drivers

FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − capex − ΔNWC

Each default is the company's own historical average, which describes the phase it happened to be in. Switch a driver to Per-year when that phase is ending: a company mid-build does not spend at its peak rate forever, and one in a capex pause does not stay there. The terminal year keeps its own ratios, so a taper you enter here changes the explicit window and leaves the perpetuity coherent.

Capex

% of revenue0.4%

D&A

% of revenue5.5%

ΔNWC

% of the CHANGE in revenue65.1%

Year	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	T∞
Growth	13.7%	10.9%	8.1%	5.3%	2.5%	2.5%
Revenue	Rp 15 T	Rp 16 T	Rp 17 T	Rp 18 T	Rp 19 T	Rp 19 T
EBIT	Rp 4.6 T	Rp 5.1 T	Rp 5.5 T	Rp 5.8 T	Rp 5.9 T	Rp 6.1 T
NOPAT	Rp 3.6 T	Rp 4.0 T	Rp 4.3 T	Rp 4.5 T	Rp 4.6 T	Rp 4.7 T
+ D&A	Rp 802 M	Rp 890 M	Rp 962 M	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 1.1 T
− Capex	Rp 64 M	Rp 71 M	Rp 77 M	Rp 81 M	Rp 83 M	Rp 2.0 T
− ΔNWC	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 850 M	Rp 601 M	Rp 299 M	Rp 306 M
FCFF	Rp 3.2 T	Rp 3.8 T	Rp 4.3 T	Rp 4.8 T	Rp 5.3 T	Rp 3.5 T
PV	Rp 2.9 T	Rp 3.1 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 31 T

Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5 · equity = EV − net debt − minority · per share = equity ÷ shares outstanding

EV = PV(explicit) Rp 16 T + PV(TV) Rp 31 T = Rp 46 T · TV 66% of EV · − net debt Rp 6.1 T − minority Rp 8.8 T = equity Rp 32 T ÷ shares outstanding

Model output: Rp 1,507/share (+164% vs price Rp 570)· exit-multiple check (6.3x): Rp 1,356

Under these assumptions the model lands 164% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.

Sensitivity (per share, Rp)

g \ WACC	8.8%	9.8%	10.8%
2.0%	1,711	1,413	1,183
2.5%	1,841	1,507	1,252
3.0%	1,994	1,614	1,330

Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.

Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.

Macro backdropfull backdrop + sensitivity map →

BI Rate 5.75%IDR/USD 18,05810Y government bond yield 7.26%Inflation 3.34%(as-of 2026-07-31)

BI rate ↑(H)GDP/consumption ↑(M)

Income Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	Rp 7.7 T	Rp 10 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 14 T	Rp 13 T
Cost of Goods Sold	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 3.5 T	Rp 5.2 T	Rp 5.2 T	Rp 4.9 T
Gross Profit	Rp 4.6 T	Rp 6.7 T	Rp 6.3 T	Rp 8.6 T	Rp 7.9 T
Operating Income (EBIT)	Rp 2.6 T	Rp 4.0 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 4.9 T	Rp 3.9 T
Interest Expense	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 1.5 T
Net Income	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 1.9 T	Rp 4.4 T	Rp 2.5 T
Net Income Attributable to Owners	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 1.9 T	Rp 4.4 T	Rp 2.5 T
Depreciation & Amortization	Rp 423 M	Rp 442 M	Rp 558 M	Rp 747 M	Rp 806 M

Balance Sheet

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Equivalents	Rp 7.8 T	Rp 9.7 T	Rp 9.4 T	Rp 9.0 T	Rp 10 T
Accounts Receivable	Rp 135 M	Rp 182 M	Rp 283 M	Rp 111 M	Rp 141 M
Inventory	Rp 12 T	Rp 13 T	Rp 14 T	Rp 17 T	Rp 18 T
Current Assets	Rp 28 T	Rp 30 T	Rp 29 T	Rp 31 T	Rp 33 T
Total Assets	Rp 61 T	Rp 65 T	Rp 67 T	Rp 76 T	Rp 79 T
Accounts Payable	Rp 1.1 T	Rp 901 M	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 961 M
Current Liabilities	Rp 11 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 14 T	Rp 9.7 T
Total Liabilities	Rp 26 T	Rp 27 T	Rp 26 T	Rp 29 T	Rp 27 T
Total Interest-Bearing Debt	Rp 12 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 14 T	Rp 16 T
Total Equity	Rp 36 T	Rp 38 T	Rp 41 T	Rp 47 T	Rp 53 T
Equity Attributable to Owners	Rp 31 T	Rp 34 T	Rp 36 T	Rp 41 T	Rp 44 T

Cash Flow Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.1 T	Rp 840 M	Rp 916 M	-Rp 993 M
Capital Expenditure	Rp 17 M	Rp 80 M	Rp 47 M	Rp 69 M	Rp 54 M

Company Deep Analysis

Reviewed: 2026-06-27

Analyst Verdict

Bumi Serpong Damai is Indonesia's largest single-township developer, built around BSD City in Tangerang Selatan, a ~6,000 ha master-planned community that is home to IKEA, AEON, Samsung's HQ and major hospitals and schools. The Sinarmas Land group model produces exceptional gross margins (~55–66%), because land bought decades ago now sells at multiples of its cost, but those same vast land holdings suppress asset turnover (0.12–0.18×) and ROE (4–11%). The 2024 net-margin spike to 31.6% reflects non-recurring gains from asset disposals and revaluation. FCF turned negative in 2025 (–Rp1.0tn) as spending on new land bank accelerated, while D/E stays conservatively low (0.29–0.33). It is a high-quality township franchise with a structural margin advantage and low leverage, but returns are limited by the sheer scale of its assets and its concentration in a single township.

Business Model

Bumi Serpong Damai develops and operates BSD City, a ~6,000 ha integrated township in Tangerang Selatan west of Jakarta. Revenue comes from: (1) residential; landed houses, shophouses, apartments; (2) commercial land and building sales to corporates/retailers; (3) recurring income; mall rental (ITC BSD, AEON Mall BSD), hotel operations and office leasing. The structural margin advantage: BSD City land was acquired at below-market prices decades ago, so current selling prices generate very high gross margins. The Sinarmas group is the controlling shareholder.

Segments

Residential sales (landed houses + apartments + shophouses: the core revenue driver, highest volume), commercial property sales (land plots and built units to corporates, IKEA, AEON), and recurring income from mall operations, hotels and offices. Gross margin ~61% (FY25) reflects the deep discount on historically-acquired land versus current market prices. Asset turnover 0.12–0.18× reflects the massive un-sold landbank sitting on the balance sheet.

Value Chain & Positioning

Land acquisition (decades-old BSD City land at cost) → township planning and permits → residential / commercial development → sales through in-house and broker channels → property management and recurring income. The value accrues at the land-appreciation stage (historic cost → current market) and the integrated-township premium (amenities, schools, hospitals attract buyers who pay a location premium).

Competitive Forces (Porter’s 5)

Supplier powerLow

How much leverage input/funding providers have over pricing.

BSD City's own vast landbank is the primary input; construction contractors are fragmented and competitive.

Implication → Structural cost advantage: decades-old land at historic cost creates the ~60% gross margin that competitors cannot replicate without buying land at today's prices.

Buyer powerMedium

How much leverage customers have to push prices down.

Home buyers can choose competing developments; BSD City's amenities and brand justify a price premium, but macro sentiment (mortgage rates, income confidence) drives demand cycles.

Implication → Marketing sales are cyclical: rate cuts and positive macro catalyse demand; tightening slows it. Township amenity lock-in partially protects BSDE from pure price competition.

Threat of new entryLow

How easily new competitors can enter the market.

Replicating a 6,000 ha fully-serviced township with 30+ years of infrastructure, brand equity and tenant ecosystem is essentially impossible at current land prices.

Implication → BSD City is a geographic moat: a well-established township that competitors cannot simply build elsewhere within the same catchment.

Threat of substitutesMedium

Risk that alternative products/services replace demand.

Other Jabodetabek townships (Kota Deltamas, Summarecon Serpong) and Jakarta apartments substitute; work-from-home trends reduce commuter-location premium.

Implication → BSDE must continuously invest in township amenities (new malls, schools, parks) to maintain the BSD City premium against emerging Jabodetabek developments.

Competitive rivalryMedium

Intensity of competition among existing players.

Competes with Sinarmas Land siblings and major developers (Ciputra, Lippo, Pakuwon, Agung Podomoro) for Jabodetabek middle-upper buyers.

Implication → Township brand loyalty and the BSD City ecosystem dampen rivalry intensity; BSDE is not in pure price competition for its township product, though commercial land faces more contest.

Moat / Competitive Edge

Narrow-to-medium. BSDE's moat is the BSD City landbank and township ecosystem: acquired at historic costs that cannot be replicated today, with 30+ years of infrastructure, schools (BINUS, Swiss German University), hospitals (Eka Hospital) and global tenants (IKEA, AEON, Samsung HQ) creating a self-reinforcing location premium. The structural limit: this moat is geographic and single-site; BSDE lacks the multi-city diversification of Ciputra, and its returns depend on Indonesia's Jabodetabek property cycle.

Key Drivers & Sensitivities

Marketing sales / presales velocity
Presales drive future revenue recognition (1–3 year lag for construction completion); a 10% swing in annual marketing sales translates to ~10–15% shift in revenue 2 years out. FY24 saw strong presales recovery.
Mortgage rates (BI rate / KPR)
Lower BI rates reduce KPR mortgage costs, directly boosting landed-house demand. Rate cuts are the single biggest macro demand catalyst for BSDE's residential segment.
Non-recurring gains (asset disposal/revaluation)
FY24 NM spiked to 31.6% (from ~17% base) on gains from asset disposal or investment revaluation, not operating performance. Removing these, underlying NM is ~17–24%.
Land bank spending / FCF
Aggressive land acquisition (FCF turned –Rp1.0tn in FY25 from +Rp3.3tn in FY21) consumes cash but is essential to replenish the development pipeline for the next decade. High capex years depress FCF significantly.
Recurring income (mall / hotel / office)
Mall, hotel and office recurring income provides a stable base revenue stream that offsets development sales cyclicality; AEON Mall BSD and ITC BSD are key assets.

Linkages

Tightly linked to Jabodetabek housing demand, BI rate / KPR mortgage rates, GDP per-capita and consumer confidence. The Sinarmas group provides capital and related-party transactions. Commercial land sales link to MNC/retail investment appetite (IKEA, AEON decisions). Regulatory: LTV ratios and property-tax rules affect buyer affordability.

Recent Developments

FY21–25: gross margin held ~55–66% (reflecting historic-cost landbank advantage); ROE swung 4.3%→10.7%→5.8%; the 2024 peak driven by non-recurring disposal gains (NM 31.6%). ROIC peaked at 10.0% (FY22), was 9.2% in FY24 and compressed to 6.7% (FY25). FCF deteriorated from +Rp3.3tn (FY21) to –Rp1.0tn (FY25) on renewed land-bank investment. D/E stable at 0.29–0.31.

Regulation

Subject to Indonesian property regulations: LTV (loan-to-value) ratios set by Bank Indonesia affect mortgage affordability; land acquisition permits (HGU/HGB); environmental clearances (AMDAL); property tax (BPHTB, PBB). Township-scale developments require complex spatial planning approvals. Foreign ownership rules restrict direct foreign home purchases. Listed on the IDX.

ESG & Sustainability

Material issues: land acquisition practices and community resettlement (township scale), green building adoption (BSD City Green Office Park), and mixed-use density as urban efficiency. Governance reflects Sinarmas group control; related-party transactions require monitoring. Social: BSD City township provides employment and urban services to hundreds of thousands of residents.

Risks

Property cycle downturn / mortgage rate hikes reducing residential demand
Jabodetabek market concentration: single-township risk vs multi-city peers
Non-recurring gain removal exposing lower underlying ROE (~5–7%)
FCF pressure from land-bank replenishment spending
Regulatory changes (LTV tightening, foreign-ownership policy, tax)

Outlook & What to Watch

A structurally advantaged township developer: historic-cost landbank preserves the ~60% gross margin indefinitely as new phases are released, and the BSD City ecosystem is a durable location moat. Near-term FCF is negative (land investment phase); ROE recovery from the ~5–7% underlying base requires either marketing sales acceleration or a rising-rate-cycle reversal. The non-recurring 2024 gains should not be extrapolated. (Interpretation, not a forecast.)

Key KPIs

Marketing Sales: Presales bookings: leading indicator of future revenue (1–3 yr lag)
Gross Margin: ~55–66%: historic-cost landbank advantage
ROE: 4–11% (FY21–25); 2024 elevated by non-recurring gains
FCF: Free cash flow: swung positive to negative (land-bank cycle)
D/E: 0.29–0.33: conservative leverage for a property developer

Sources

Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.