…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.75x | 0.75x | 0.75x | 0.76x | 0.72x |
| Interest burden | 0.98x | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.98x |
| Operating margindriver | 29.7% | 31.4% | 23.9% | 23.4% | 15.0% |
| Asset turnover | 1.91x | 2.59x | 2.21x | 2.18x | 2.02x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 2.62x | 2.02x | 1.98x | 1.87x | 1.69x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 110.0% | 121.9% | 78.2% | 71.7% | 36.4% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 111.8% | 123.1% | 79.0% | 72.3% | 35.9% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 1.02x | 1.53x | 1.37x | 1.35x | 1.50x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 0.95x | 1.44x | 1.30x | 1.31x | 1.40x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.46x | 0.70x | 0.52x | 0.63x | 0.29x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | $ 8.9 M | $ 251 M | $ 227 M | $ 184 M | $ 194 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.36x | 0.24x | 0.38x | 0.43x | 0.19x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 1.62x | 1.02x | 0.98x | 0.87x | 0.69x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.14x | 0.12x | 0.19x | 0.23x | 0.11x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | -$ 79 M | -$ 197 M | -$ 65 M | -$ 44 M | $ 22 M |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 61.79x | 102.55x | 93.33x | 109.57x | 58.81x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 2.62x | 2.02x | 1.98x | 1.87x | 1.69x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 47.3% | 44.7% | 39.1% | 40.4% | 31.5% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 29.7% | 31.4% | 23.9% | 23.4% | 15.0% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 21.9% | 23.3% | 17.9% | 17.5% | 10.7% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | $ 487 M | $ 934 M | $ 753 M | $ 680 M | $ 404 M |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 30.7% | 32.0% | 25.9% | 25.1% | 16.7% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 42.0% | 60.3% | 39.5% | 38.2% | 21.6% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 110.5% | 123.3% | 79.3% | 72.7% | 36.8% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.75x | 0.75x | 0.75x | 0.76x | 0.72x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.98x | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.98x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 111.8% | 123.1% | 79.0% | 72.3% | 35.9% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 1.91x | 2.59x | 2.21x | 2.18x | 2.02x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 27.81x | 37.82x | 43.74x | 69.70x | 41.32x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 11.29x | 15.10x | 9.94x | 13.35x | 10.06x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 5.17x | 6.36x | 5.23x | 6.50x | 5.42x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 13.1 days | 9.7 days | 8.3 days | 5.2 days | 8.8 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 32.3 days | 24.2 days | 36.7 days | 27.3 days | 36.3 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 70.6 days | 57.4 days | 69.8 days | 56.1 days | 67.3 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | -25.2 days | -23.6 days | -24.7 days | -23.6 days | -22.2 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | $ 367 M | $ 690 M | $ 301 M | $ 466 M | $ 228 M |
Price Rp 6,478 · market cap Rp 38 T ($ 2.1 B at the cited rate; statements are filed in USD)
| Multiple | GEMS | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.17x | 16.25x(15/16) | -50% |
| P/B | 3.00x | 1.68x | +78% |
| P/S | 0.87x | 1.92x | -55% |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.30x | 10.31x | -49% |
| EV/EBIT | 5.89x | 14.25x | -59% |
| EV/Sales | 0.89x | 2.27x | -61% |
| FCF Yield | 10.79% | 0.01% | +102,394% |
| Dividend Yield | 21.00% | 5.27%(11/16) | +299% |
EV = mkt cap $ 2.1 B + debt $ 134 M − cash $ 112 M + minority interest $ 6.1 M = $ 2.1 B
At today’s price, the market is paying for -0.6%/yr FCF growth (-4.0% at 9.3% to 2.3% at 13.3% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -11.2% FCF · 11.1% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 9.3–13.3% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
Cyclical normalization: Commodity/cyclical name: the trailing years are a sample drawn from the price cycle, not a trend. Defaults are therefore normalized, using the full-window mean margin with no cycle-position growth extrapolation. That normalized margin is itself the embedded commodity-price assumption.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 4.66% | US 10Y Treasury, 10 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.96 → 1.01 | Metals & Mining (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.06 |
| Cost of equity | 11.39% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 4.59% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 24.9% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 10.91% | 94% E × CoE + 6% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 2.5% | terminal growth from year 1, cyclical normalization: the delivered 4-yr CAGR (11.1%) reflects cycle position, not a trend |
| EBIT margin | 24.7% | full-cycle mean EBIT margin, FY2021–FY2025 (cyclical normalization: this margin is the embedded commodity-price assumption) |
| D&A / revenue | 1.8% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 2.6% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 1.8% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 1.0% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | $ 2.5 B | $ 2.5 B | $ 2.6 B | $ 2.7 B | $ 2.7 B | $ 2.8 B |
| EBIT | $ 611 M | $ 626 M | $ 642 M | $ 658 M | $ 674 M | $ 691 M |
| NOPAT | $ 459 M | $ 470 M | $ 482 M | $ 494 M | $ 506 M | $ 519 M |
| + D&A | $ 45 M | $ 46 M | $ 47 M | $ 48 M | $ 50 M | $ 51 M |
| − Capex | $ 64 M | $ 66 M | $ 67 M | $ 69 M | $ 71 M | $ 51 M |
| − ΔNWC | $ 591 K | $ 606 K | $ 621 K | $ 637 K | $ 653 K | $ 669 K |
| FCFF | $ 439 M | $ 450 M | $ 461 M | $ 473 M | $ 484 M | $ 518 M |
| PV | $ 396 M | $ 366 M | $ 338 M | $ 312 M | $ 289 M | $ 3.7 B |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) $ 1.7 B + PV(TV) $ 3.7 B = $ 5.4 B · TV 68% of EV · − net debt $ 22 M − minority $ 6.1 M
Model output: Rp 16,402/share (+153% vs price Rp 6,478)· exit-multiple check (10.3x): Rp 18,795
Under these assumptions the model lands 153% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 9.9% | 10.9% | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 17,573 | 15,570 | 13,972 |
| 2.5% | 18,651 | 16,402 | 14,632 |
| 3.0% | 19,885 | 17,339 | 15,366 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $ 1.6 B | $ 2.9 B | $ 2.9 B | $ 2.7 B | $ 2.4 B |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $ 836 M | $ 1.6 B | $ 1.8 B | $ 1.6 B | $ 1.7 B |
| Gross Profit | $ 750 M | $ 1.3 B | $ 1.1 B | $ 1.1 B | $ 759 M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $ 471 M | $ 917 M | $ 694 M | $ 633 M | $ 363 M |
| Interest Expense | $ 7.6 M | $ 8.9 M | $ 7.4 M | $ 5.8 M | $ 6.2 M |
| Net Income | $ 348 M | $ 680 M | $ 518 M | $ 474 M | $ 258 M |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | $ 348 M | $ 680 M | $ 518 M | $ 474 M | $ 258 M |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $ 16 M | $ 17 M | $ 59 M | $ 47 M | $ 40 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $ 194 M | $ 330 M | $ 318 M | $ 327 M | $ 112 M |
| Accounts Receivable | $ 140 M | $ 193 M | $ 292 M | $ 203 M | $ 240 M |
| Inventory | $ 30 M | $ 43 M | $ 40 M | $ 23 M | $ 40 M |
| Current Assets | $ 434 M | $ 724 M | $ 842 M | $ 706 M | $ 582 M |
| Total Assets | $ 829 M | $ 1.1 B | $ 1.3 B | $ 1.2 B | $ 1.2 B |
| Accounts Payable | $ 162 M | $ 254 M | $ 338 M | $ 248 M | $ 305 M |
| Current Liabilities | $ 425 M | $ 473 M | $ 615 M | $ 522 M | $ 388 M |
| Total Liabilities | $ 513 M | $ 571 M | $ 649 M | $ 578 M | $ 488 M |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | $ 114 M | $ 133 M | $ 253 M | $ 283 M | $ 134 M |
| Total Equity | $ 316 M | $ 558 M | $ 663 M | $ 661 M | $ 709 M |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | $ 315 M | $ 552 M | $ 654 M | $ 652 M | $ 703 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 373 M | $ 700 M | $ 391 M | $ 572 M | $ 247 M |
| Capital Expenditure | $ 6.8 M | $ 9.9 M | $ 90 M | $ 105 M | $ 19 M |
GEMS gross margin: 47.3 % (2021) → 44.7 % (2022) → 39.1 % (2023) → 40.4 % (2024) → 31.5 % (2025). OPM: 29.7 % → 31.4 % → 23.9 % → 23.4 % → 15.0 %. Net margin: 21.9 % → 23.3 % → 17.9 % → 17.5 % → 10.7 %. ROE: 110.5 % → 123.3 % → 79.3 % → 72.7 % → 36.8 %; the highest ROE of any mining-metals name tracked in this project, even at its 2025 trough. ROIC tracks ROE closely throughout (111.8 % → 123.1 % → 79.0 % → 72.3 % → 35.9 %), implying very little leverage contribution to the return. Asset turnover: 1.91× → 2.59× → 2.21× → 2.18× → 2.02×; roughly double every other coal peer in this roster (ITMG/BYAN/ADRO/INDY/HRUM/AADI all run well under 1×), the clearest sign of a genuinely more capital-light, trading-inclusive model. D/E: 0.36× → 0.24× → 0.38× → 0.43× → 0.19×; L/E: 1.62× → 1.02× → 0.98× → 0.87× → 0.69×. Net debt: −$79.2 M (net cash, 2021) → −$196.6 M (net cash, 2022 peak) → −$65.4 M → −$44.3 M → +$22.3 M (2025, flipped to a small net-debt position). Interest coverage: 61.8× → 102.6× → 93.3× → 109.6× (2024 peak) → 58.8× (2025); never dropped below 58× in five years, the strongest coverage of any coal name tracked here. FCF (USD): $366.6 M → $689.9 M (2022 peak) → $301.0 M → $466.4 M → $227.7 M; positive every year. Revenue (USD): $1.59 B → $2.92 B → $2.90 B → $2.71 B → $2.41 B. The shape: the same coal-price-driven margin decline every peer shows, but starting from, and returning to, a far stronger ROE/turnover/coverage base than any other name in this cohort.
GEMS owns its coal concessions across five subsidiaries; the trading segment sources third-party coal competitively across many counterparties, so no single supplier has meaningful leverage.
Implication → Cost pressure is benchmark-price and strip-ratio driven for the mining side, and margin-driven for the trading side: supplier concentration is not a real risk here.
Thermal coal is benchmark-priced: GEMS is a price-taker on both its mined and traded tonnage, the same dynamic as every listed coal peer.
Implication → Revenue is fully cycle-driven; GEMS's real lever is its capital-light trading model, which lets it maintain far higher returns than peers through the same price cycle, not immunity from it.
Standard IUP/RKAB/AMDAL barriers protect the mining side; the trading side requires working-capital access and counterparty relationships rather than mining permits, a somewhat different (though still non-trivial) barrier.
Implication → GEMS's trading-driven capital efficiency is a genuine, if replicable-in-principle, business-model advantage, not a regulatory moat.
The sector's standard high substitution risk applies (LNG/solar/wind/hydro/geothermal, post-2030 demand decline): GEMS has no diversification hedge disclosed here, unlike HRUM's nickel pivot or ITMG's early clean-energy dabbling.
Implication → GEMS's strong current returns do not address the sector's long-run substitution risk: the trading-heavy model earns more per unit of coal cycle, it does not extend the coal cycle itself.
GEMS competes on the same seaborne thermal market as Australia, Russia, South Africa and domestic peers (PTBA, ADRO, BYAN, ITMG, INDY, HRUM, AADI) for mined tonnage, plus a separate set of trading counterparties for its Coal Trading segment.
Implication → Despite crowded rivalry on both fronts, GEMS's ROE and coverage numbers show it is currently winning that competition more decisively than any other tracked coal name.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia controls >60 % of global nickel supply and is the world's largest thermal-coal exporter; hilirisasi mandates in-country ore processing, reshaping value chains from raw ore to battery-grade products.