…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.52x | 0.41x | 0.49x | 0.44x | 0.54x |
| Interest burden | 0.84x | 0.83x | 0.83x | 0.84x | 0.83x |
| Operating margin | 17.6% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| Asset turnover | 0.55x | 0.61x | 0.60x | 0.57x | 0.57x |
| Leverage (equity mult.)driver | 2.06x | 1.93x | 1.86x | 1.85x | 1.81x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 1.34x | 1.79x | 1.92x | 2.15x | 2.13x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 1.03x | 1.25x | 1.45x | 1.67x | 1.69x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.73x | 0.84x | 0.87x | 1.04x | 1.12x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 14 T | Rp 24 T | Rp 30 T | Rp 43 T | Rp 48 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.72x | 0.71x | 0.65x | 0.66x | 0.62x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 1.06x | 0.93x | 0.86x | 0.85x | 0.81x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.35x | 0.37x | 0.35x | 0.35x | 0.34x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | Rp 33 T | Rp 41 T | Rp 36 T | Rp 33 T | Rp 28 T |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 6.14x | 5.86x | 5.72x | 6.18x | 5.84x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 2.06x | 1.93x | 1.86x | 1.85x | 1.81x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 32.8% | 30.5% | 32.3% | 34.9% | 33.2% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 17.6% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 21 T | Rp 22 T | Rp 24 T | Rp 27 T | Rp 28 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 21.1% | 20.1% | 21.2% | 23.6% | 22.3% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 15.8% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 14.6% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.52x | 0.41x | 0.49x | 0.44x | 0.54x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.84x | 0.83x | 0.83x | 0.84x | 0.83x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.55x | 0.61x | 0.60x | 0.57x | 0.57x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 5.26x | 4.66x | 4.97x | 4.20x | 4.41x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 13.03x | 13.38x | 14.00x | 12.47x | 11.66x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 12.94x | 14.33x | 14.13x | 12.98x | 12.88x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 69.3 days | 78.3 days | 73.4 days | 87.0 days | 82.8 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 28.0 days | 27.3 days | 26.1 days | 29.3 days | 31.3 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 28.2 days | 25.5 days | 25.8 days | 28.1 days | 28.3 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 69.2 days | 80.1 days | 73.6 days | 88.1 days | 85.7 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 9.9 T | Rp 9.6 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 14 T |
Price Rp 6,975 · market cap Rp 61 T
| Multiple | INDF | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 5.73x | 11.30x | -49% |
| P/B | 0.84x | 1.86x | -55% |
| P/S | 0.50x | 1.09x | -54% |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.94x | 6.93x | -29% |
| EV/EBIT | 5.73x | 7.67x | -25% |
| EV/Sales | 1.10x | 1.40x | -21% |
| FCF Yield | 22.76% | 7.97% | +185% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.16% | 3.80% | +9% |
EV = mkt cap Rp 61 T + debt Rp 75 T − cash Rp 47 T + minority interest Rp 47 T = Rp 136 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 3.9%/yr FCF growth (1.0% at 12.0% to 6.6% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 8.9% FCF · 5.6% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
Base year contains named one-off item(s): FY2025: No material accounting one-offs across the five-year window. The EBIT basis screens out most non-operating items, but read the Earnings Quality section before trusting the base margin.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.46 → 0.83 | Food Processing (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 1.23 |
| Cost of equity | 12.79% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 5.42% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 35.0% | median effective rate FY2021–FY2025 computed to 51.0%, CLAMPED to 35%: above that ceiling the pretax approximation is carrying minority interests, which are already deducted separately from enterprise value, rather than tax |
| WACC | 7.68% | 45% E × CoE + 55% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 5.6% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 5.6%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 19.2% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 3.1% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 4.3% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 3.1% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 37.2% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 130 T | Rp 137 T | Rp 142 T | Rp 147 T | Rp 151 T | Rp 154 T |
| EBIT | Rp 25 T | Rp 26 T | Rp 27 T | Rp 28 T | Rp 29 T | Rp 30 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 16 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 19 T | Rp 19 T |
| + D&A | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.3 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 4.6 T | Rp 4.7 T | Rp 4.8 T |
| − Capex | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 5.9 T | Rp 6.2 T | Rp 6.4 T | Rp 6.5 T | Rp 4.8 T |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T |
| FCFF | Rp 12 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 18 T |
| PV | Rp 11 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 238 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 56 T + PV(TV) Rp 238 T = Rp 294 T · TV 81% of EV · − net debt Rp 28 T − minority Rp 47 T
Model output: Rp 24,946/share (+258% vs price Rp 6,975)· exit-multiple check (6.9x): Rp 16,165
Under these assumptions the model lands 258% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 29,422 | 22,541 | 17,726 |
| 2.5% | 33,211 | 24,946 | 19,362 |
| 3.0% | 38,029 | 27,866 | 21,287 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 99 T | Rp 111 T | Rp 112 T | Rp 116 T | Rp 123 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 67 T | Rp 77 T | Rp 76 T | Rp 75 T | Rp 82 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 33 T | Rp 34 T | Rp 36 T | Rp 40 T | Rp 41 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 17 T | Rp 19 T | Rp 20 T | Rp 24 T | Rp 24 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 4.1 T |
| Net Income | Rp 7.7 T | Rp 6.4 T | Rp 8.1 T | Rp 8.6 T | Rp 11 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 7.7 T | Rp 6.4 T | Rp 8.1 T | Rp 8.6 T | Rp 11 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.6 T | Rp 3.8 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 29 T | Rp 26 T | Rp 29 T | Rp 39 T | Rp 47 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 7.6 T | Rp 8.3 T | Rp 8.0 T | Rp 9.3 T | Rp 11 T |
| Inventory | Rp 13 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 19 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 54 T | Rp 55 T | Rp 63 T | Rp 80 T | Rp 90 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 179 T | Rp 180 T | Rp 187 T | Rp 202 T | Rp 218 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 5.4 T | Rp 5.4 T | Rp 5.8 T | Rp 6.4 T |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 40 T | Rp 31 T | Rp 33 T | Rp 37 T | Rp 42 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 92 T | Rp 87 T | Rp 86 T | Rp 93 T | Rp 98 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 63 T | Rp 67 T | Rp 65 T | Rp 71 T | Rp 75 T |
| Total Equity | Rp 87 T | Rp 94 T | Rp 100 T | Rp 109 T | Rp 120 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 49 T | Rp 54 T | Rp 59 T | Rp 65 T | Rp 73 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 15 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 20 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 5.6 T |
Indofood Sukses Makmur is the vertically-integrated parent, spanning Consumer Branded Products (its ~80% ICBP stake), Bogasari (dominant flour milling), Agribusiness (palm/CPO) and Distribution. ICBP is the value engine, but the agri exposure layers on CPO cyclicality, and between the holding structure and the minority interests, returns trail ICBP itself (ROE ~12–15% against ICBP’s ~18%). Margins and cash flow are solid (operating ~19%, FCF ~Rp10–14tn) and leverage is moderate (D/E ~0.62). Think of it as a cheaper, more diversified way to own the Indomie franchise, one that comes with a conglomerate discount and a dose of commodity cyclicality.
Agribusiness sits at the top of the chain, supplying palm oil and other raw inputs into the group rather than only selling them outward.
EconomicsVertical integration is why group gross margin holds near a third of revenue, 33.2 percent in FY2025, higher than a pure processor would earn.
Bogasari and the edible-oils operations convert wheat and crude palm oil into inputs that the branded business then buys, so a large share of revenue is internal before it is external.
EconomicsThis is the segment that makes the group defensive rather than exciting: milling earns a spread on volume, and the spread widens when commodity input prices fall.
The consumer branded business, which is the profit engine, is held through Indofood CBP, itself listed and separately covered on this site.
EconomicsThat structure is the single most important fact about INDF. The best margins in the group belong to a company whose shares other people also own, which is why 39.2 percent of consolidated equity is not attributable to INDF shareholders.
A national distribution arm carries the products to traditional and modern trade, which is why receivables clear in about 31 days despite serving a fragmented retail base.
EconomicsOwning distribution converts scale into a barrier: a competitor must replicate reach, not just product, and reach is the expensive half.
Cost structureInput-led and comfortably wide. Cost of revenue was IDR 82.4tn of IDR 123.5tn in FY2025, a 33.2 percent gross margin held between 30.5 and 34.9 percent across five years despite wheat and palm oil moving sharply, which is what vertical integration buys. Operating margin of 19.2 percent means roughly 14 points goes to selling, distribution and administration, the cost of a national route to market. Interest is the line that matters below that: IDR 4.1tn against IDR 23.7tn of operating profit, cover of 5.8 times, and it sits mostly at the parent.
Cash cycleLonger than a branded-goods business alone would run, because the group carries plantation and milling inventory as well as finished product: the cash cycle stretched from 69.2 days in FY2021 to 85.7 in FY2025, with inventory at 82.8 days, receivables 31.3 and payables only 28.3. Read that as the cost of owning the upstream. It is funded comfortably, since cash of IDR 47.5tn covers most of the IDR 75.1tn of debt, but it does mean growth consumes working capital rather than releasing it.
Unit economicsThe gap between two return figures is the whole company. Return on equity was 14.6 percent in FY2025 while return on invested capital was 8.7 percent, a spread of 5.9 points, and that spread is debt: IDR 75.1tn of borrowings against IDR 120.2tn of total equity. The operating business earns a solid mid-single-digit return on all the capital employed in it; INDF shareholders see a mid-teens return because leverage sits between them and it. Neither number is wrong. Use ROIC to judge the business and ROE to judge the shareholding, and never quote one as if it were the other.
Vertical integration (own flour via Bogasari, own palm) reduces reliance on external suppliers.
Implication → Integration cushions input-cost shocks better than non-integrated peers.
Strong brands (Indomie) and a dominant flour franchise give limited buyer leverage.
Implication → Supports pricing power across the chain, anchoring margins.
Scale across milling, branded foods and distribution is a huge barrier.
Implication → The integrated franchise is highly defensible.
Staples substitution and health trends apply, as for ICBP; CPO has commodity substitutes.
Implication → Caps growth modestly; the agri segment is price-taking.
Branded competition (via ICBP) plus commodity competition in flour/CPO.
Implication → Mixed: branded pricing power offset by price-taking agribusiness.
High quality, and the reason to read it carefully is structural rather than suspicious. Cash backs the profit every single year: operating cash flow covered net income 1.92, 2.14, 2.27, 2.03 and 1.83 times across FY2021 to FY2025, and free cash flow was POSITIVE in all five years at IDR 9.9tn, 9.6tn, 14.5tn, 11.8tn and 13.9tn. There are no acquisition gains or revaluations driving the result. What does need care is whose profit it is. Non-controlling interests were 44.2, 42.5, 41.1, 40.3 and 39.2 percent of consolidated equity, because the highest-margin part of the group is held through a separately listed subsidiary. So consolidated revenue and assets describe a group in which INDF shareholders hold a 60.8 percent equity claim, and the engine tax-retention figure of 54.3 percent partly reflects minorities being deducted alongside tax rather than a low tax rate. This is the same reading problem as BRPT on this site, in a much milder form: BRPT minorities were 62.9 percent of equity, INDF 39.2 percent, and the discipline required is identical.
| Period | One-off item | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | No material accounting one-offs across the five-year window | Stated deliberately, because several names on this site do carry them. Revenue grew from IDR 99.3tn to IDR 123.5tn and operating profit from IDR 17.4tn to IDR 23.7tn on operating improvement rather than gains, with operating margin rising 17.6 to 19.2 percent. The only structural discontinuity is the steady decline in the minority share of equity, from 44.2 to 39.2 percent, which raises the owners share of the same business over time. |
Cash conversionAmong the best in the roster and consistently so: operating cash flow exceeded net income in all five years, never below 1.83 times, and free cash flow was positive every year despite capital spending running 3.6 to 4.9 percent of revenue. Cumulative five-year free cash flow of about IDR 59.8tn against cumulative net income of about IDR 41.5tn is better than one for one, which is what a vertically integrated staples business should look like when it is working.
A steady compounder that funds growth internally and de-levers slowly, which is the least dramatic and most durable pattern in this roster. Debt to equity came down from 72.0 percent to 62.5 percent while total equity grew from IDR 87.0tn to IDR 120.2tn, and cash built from IDR 29.5tn to IDR 47.5tn. Nothing here was bought with dilution and nothing was starved to pay a dividend.
DeploymentCapital goes three places and all three are funded from operations. Capital spending ran 4.8, 3.6, 3.6, 4.9 and 4.5 percent of revenue, modest for a group that owns plantations and mills. Working capital absorbed the second slice as the cash cycle lengthened from 69.2 to 85.7 days. The third is the balance sheet itself: cash rose IDR 18.0tn over the window while debt rose only IDR 12.4tn, so net debt FELL even as the group grew, ending at about IDR 27.6tn against IDR 23.7tn of annual operating profit. Note where the debt sits, though. Borrowing is concentrated at the parent while the strongest cash generation sits inside a partly owned subsidiary, which is exactly why return on equity exceeds return on invested capital by 5.9 points.
Returns trendReturns are steady and unspectacular: return on equity 15.8, 11.8, 13.8, 13.3 and 14.6 percent, return on invested capital 7.6, 5.7, 7.2, 7.3 and 8.7 percent, both improving in the last two years as operating margin widened. The valuation is where this page earns its keep. At IDR 6,974.94 the market capitalisation of about IDR 61.2tn puts INDF on roughly 0.84 times the equity attributable to its own shareholders, so BELOW book, and on an EV/EBITDA of 4.94 times against a food and beverage peer median of 6.93 times, a 29 percent DISCOUNT. The forward model produces IDR 24,946 per share, about 3.6 times the price. Now the honest part, because a discount is not automatically an opportunity. A holding company should trade below the sum of its parts when the parent carries the debt, the best assets are only partly owned, and cash must be dividended up before it can be redistributed. All three are true here. The question is not whether a discount is deserved but whether 29 percent below peers and 0.80 times book overstates it, and that is a judgement about governance and capital flow rather than about the forecast. Both figures are model outputs, not targets.
Non-controlling interests were 39.2 percent of consolidated equity at end-FY2025, down from 44.2 percent in FY2021 but still large, because the highest-margin branded business is held through a separately listed subsidiary. Every consolidated headline on this page describes a group in which INDF shareholders hold a 60.8 percent equity claim. Comparing INDF consolidated revenue or assets against a wholly owned peer is not comparing like with like.
Return on equity of 14.6 percent against return on invested capital of 8.7 percent is a 5.9 point spread created by IDR 75.1tn of borrowings. Interest of IDR 4.1tn is covered 5.8 times, which is comfortable, but the structural point is that the obligation and the cash generation are not in the same entity: cash must be paid up as dividends from a partly owned subsidiary before it can service parent debt or reach INDF shareholders. That is the mechanism behind the holding-company discount, not a rumour about one.
The cash conversion cycle went from 69.2 days in FY2021 to 85.7 in FY2025, with inventory reaching 82.8 days and payables only 28.3, so suppliers fund very little of it. That is the cost of owning plantations and mills rather than buying their output, and it means every rupiah of growth ties up more working capital than a pure branded business would. It is well funded today, with IDR 47.5tn of cash, but it caps how fast the group can grow without borrowing.
Agribusiness and milling sit above the branded business, so wheat, crude palm oil and the palm export levy feed directly into group margin. Gross margin held between 30.5 and 34.9 percent across the window, which shows the integration absorbs a lot, but the volatility is real and it is not diversifiable within the group because the upstream and the downstream are the same chain.
INDF trades around 0.84 times the equity attributable to its own shareholders and 4.94 times EV/EBITDA against a 6.93 times peer median, a 29 percent discount, while the forward model implies about 3.6 times the price. Before treating that as mispricing, note that all three classic reasons for a holding-company discount apply: parent-level debt, partial ownership of the best assets, and cash that must move up through a dividend before it can be redistributed. The discount is explainable; whether it is too large is a governance judgement, not a forecasting one.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia’s largest non-commodity manufacturing sector at ~USD 88.7B: riding demographic tailwinds and the world’s #2 instant-noodle appetite, but raw-material cycles compress margins.