Equal
…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burdendriver | 0.87x | 0.97x | 0.84x | 1.24x | 1.28x |
| Interest burden | 0.71x | 0.78x | 0.62x | 0.52x | 0.53x |
| Operating margin | 24.4% | 28.4% | 22.6% | 20.4% | 21.1% |
| Asset turnover | 0.39x | 0.42x | 0.34x | 0.27x | 0.26x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.88x | 1.72x | 1.69x | 1.84x | 1.80x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 11.0% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 10.2% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 2.08x | 2.45x | 2.65x | 2.69x | 2.70x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 1.88x | 2.23x | 2.48x | 2.51x | 2.52x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.47x | 0.57x | 0.72x | 0.82x | 0.60x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | $ 2.4 B | $ 3.2 B | $ 3.5 B | $ 3.9 B | $ 3.9 B |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.75x | 0.60x | 0.58x | 0.72x | 0.69x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.88x | 0.72x | 0.69x | 0.84x | 0.80x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.40x | 0.35x | 0.34x | 0.39x | 0.38x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | $ 2.5 B | $ 2.1 B | $ 1.9 B | $ 2.7 B | $ 3.4 B |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 3.41x | 4.48x | 2.66x | 2.10x | 2.12x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.88x | 1.72x | 1.69x | 1.84x | 1.80x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 34.8% | 39.5% | 32.4% | 31.7% | 31.9% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 24.4% | 28.4% | 22.6% | 20.4% | 21.1% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 15.0% | 21.4% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 14.3% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | $ 1.1 B | $ 1.4 B | $ 1.0 B | $ 877 M | $ 885 M |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 32.1% | 34.8% | 29.2% | 27.4% | 27.9% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 5.9% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 11.0% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.87x | 0.97x | 0.84x | 1.24x | 1.28x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.71x | 0.78x | 0.62x | 0.52x | 0.53x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 10.2% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.39x | 0.42x | 0.34x | 0.27x | 0.26x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 5.20x | 4.97x | 6.37x | 5.25x | 5.20x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 2.50x | 2.20x | 2.05x | 1.73x | 2.07x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 9.90x | 11.45x | 9.34x | 7.00x | 6.10x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 70.2 days | 73.4 days | 57.3 days | 69.5 days | 70.1 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 146.0 days | 166.0 days | 177.9 days | 210.6 days | 176.1 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 36.9 days | 31.9 days | 39.1 days | 52.1 days | 59.9 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 179.3 days | 207.5 days | 196.1 days | 227.9 days | 186.4 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | $ 271 M | $ 233 M | $ 288 M | -$ 974 M | $ 34 M |
Price Rp 8,402 · market cap Rp 46 T ($ 2.5 B at the cited rate; statements are filed in USD)
| Multiple | INKP | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 5.61x | 4.84x | +16% |
| P/B | 0.37x | 0.38x | -1% |
| P/S | 0.80x | 0.97x | -17% |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.68x | 10.65x | -37% |
| EV/EBIT | 8.85x | 17.35x | -49% |
| EV/Sales | 1.86x | 1.80x | +3% |
| FCF Yield | 1.32% | 1.60% | -17% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.60% | 0.49% | +22% |
Only 2 peers are covered here, so the median is itself one of the members. A 0% gap can simply mean INKP sits at the median.
EV = mkt cap $ 2.5 B + debt $ 4.7 B − cash $ 1.4 B + minority interest $ 438 K = $ 5.9 B
At today’s price, the market is paying for 41.5%/yr FCF growth (36.1% at 9.3% to 46.3% at 13.3% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -40.6% FCF · -2.6% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 9.3–13.3% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
Cyclical normalization: Commodity/cyclical name: the trailing years are a sample drawn from the price cycle, not a trend. Defaults are therefore normalized, using the full-window mean margin with no cycle-position growth extrapolation. That normalized margin is itself the embedded commodity-price assumption.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 4.66% | US 10Y Treasury, 10 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.72 → 1.88 | Paper/Forest Products (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 1.85 |
| Cost of equity | 17.23% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 6.67% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 13.2% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 9.79% | 35% E × CoE + 65% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 2.5% | terminal growth from year 1, cyclical normalization: the delivered 4-yr CAGR (-2.6%) reflects cycle position, not a trend |
| EBIT margin | 23.4% | full-cycle mean EBIT margin, FY2021–FY2025 (cyclical normalization: this margin is the embedded commodity-price assumption) |
| D&A / revenue | 6.8% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 27.3% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 6.8% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 53.9% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | $ 3.3 B | $ 3.3 B | $ 3.4 B | $ 3.5 B | $ 3.6 B | $ 3.7 B |
| EBIT | $ 760 M | $ 779 M | $ 799 M | $ 819 M | $ 839 M | $ 860 M |
| NOPAT | $ 660 M | $ 676 M | $ 693 M | $ 711 M | $ 728 M | $ 746 M |
| + D&A | $ 221 M | $ 227 M | $ 232 M | $ 238 M | $ 244 M | $ 250 M |
| − Capex | $ 886 M | $ 908 M | $ 931 M | $ 954 M | $ 978 M | $ 250 M |
| − ΔNWC | $ 43 M | $ 44 M | $ 45 M | $ 46 M | $ 47 M | $ 48 M |
| FCFF | -$ 48 M | -$ 49 M | -$ 50 M | -$ 52 M | -$ 53 M | $ 698 M |
| PV | -$ 44 M | -$ 41 M | -$ 38 M | -$ 36 M | -$ 33 M | $ 6.0 B |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) -$ 192 M + PV(TV) $ 6.0 B = $ 5.8 B · TV 103% of EV · − net debt $ 3.4 B − minority $ 438 K
Model output: Rp 8,079/share (-4% vs price Rp 8,402)· exit-multiple check (10.7x): Rp 12,152
Under these assumptions the model lands close to today's price. The market and these inputs are telling broadly the same story.
| g \ WACC | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 10,491 | 6,795 | 3,983 |
| 2.5% | 12,284 | 8,079 | 4,935 |
| 3.0% | 14,394 | 9,557 | 6,013 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $ 3.5 B | $ 4.0 B | $ 3.5 B | $ 3.2 B | $ 3.2 B |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $ 2.3 B | $ 2.4 B | $ 2.4 B | $ 2.2 B | $ 2.2 B |
| Gross Profit | $ 1.2 B | $ 1.6 B | $ 1.1 B | $ 1.0 B | $ 1.0 B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $ 858 M | $ 1.1 B | $ 788 M | $ 653 M | $ 668 M |
| Interest Expense | $ 252 M | $ 254 M | $ 296 M | $ 311 M | $ 315 M |
| Net Income | $ 526 M | $ 858 M | $ 411 M | $ 424 M | $ 453 M |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | $ 526 M | $ 858 M | $ 411 M | $ 424 M | $ 453 M |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $ 271 M | $ 253 M | $ 228 M | $ 224 M | $ 217 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $ 1.1 B | $ 1.3 B | $ 1.5 B | $ 1.9 B | $ 1.4 B |
| Accounts Receivable | $ 1.4 B | $ 1.8 B | $ 1.7 B | $ 1.8 B | $ 1.5 B |
| Inventory | $ 442 M | $ 487 M | $ 370 M | $ 416 M | $ 415 M |
| Current Assets | $ 4.7 B | $ 5.5 B | $ 5.6 B | $ 6.2 B | $ 6.1 B |
| Total Assets | $ 9.0 B | $ 9.6 B | $ 10 B | $ 12 B | $ 12 B |
| Accounts Payable | $ 232 M | $ 211 M | $ 252 M | $ 312 M | $ 354 M |
| Current Liabilities | $ 2.3 B | $ 2.2 B | $ 2.1 B | $ 2.3 B | $ 2.3 B |
| Total Liabilities | $ 4.2 B | $ 4.0 B | $ 4.1 B | $ 5.4 B | $ 5.5 B |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | $ 3.6 B | $ 3.4 B | $ 3.5 B | $ 4.6 B | $ 4.7 B |
| Total Equity | $ 4.8 B | $ 5.6 B | $ 6.0 B | $ 6.4 B | $ 6.8 B |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | $ 4.8 B | $ 5.6 B | $ 6.0 B | $ 6.4 B | $ 6.8 B |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 679 M | $ 406 M | $ 863 M | $ 309 M | $ 830 M |
| Capital Expenditure | $ 408 M | $ 173 M | $ 575 M | $ 1.3 B | $ 797 M |
INKP is Asia Pulp & Paper's (APP, Sinar Mas Group) flagship integrated pulp-and-paper producer: it owns its own plantation-fed fiber base and runs both pulp mills and paper machines across Perawang-Riau, Tangerang and Serang-Banten, plus is now building a fourth facility in Karawang (USD 3.6 billion investment, targeting 3.9 million tonnes/year capacity). Revenue peaked at $4.0B in the 2022 commodity cycle, has since normalized to $3.17-3.20B (2024-2025), with core margins staying reasonably healthy throughout (gross margin 31.6-39.5%, operating margin 20.4-28.4% across the five years). The Karawang build-out is the dominant near-term story: it drove free cash flow to -$973.7M in 2024 (from +$287.9M in 2023) and pushed net debt from a 2023 low of $1.93B to $3.36B in 2025, with interest coverage roughly halving from its 2022 peak (4.48x) to around 2.1x in 2024-2025. Primary-source figures corroborate the seeded data closely: 9-month 2025 revenue of $2.363B (down 2.38% YoY) against total assets of $12.49B at end-September 2025 (+6.02% vs December 2024, consistent with the ongoing capex program) and net income attributable to owners of $325.9M for the same 9 months (+44.14% YoY); a real, notable divergence between declining revenue and rising attributable profit this narrative has not fully attributed to a specific cause. As an APP subsidiary, INKP is directly implicated in the group's unresolved FSC certification freeze (January 2025) following Greenpeace's 2023 finding of continued deforestation in APP supplier concessions.
INKP owns its own plantation-concession fiber base via APP, giving it largely captive wood-fiber supply, a real integration advantage over a paper-only converter, but machinery, chemicals and energy inputs remain externally sourced.
Implication → Lower feedstock-supplier exposure than a non-integrated peer, though this does not exempt INKP from the global pulp/paper price cycle on its output side.
Pulp and paper are globally-traded commodities with many alternative suppliers worldwide; INKP's export-heavy customer base can source elsewhere at world prices.
Implication → INKP is a margin-taker on a global cost curve for the commodity portion of its revenue: its 2022 revenue/margin peak and subsequent normalization tracks the global cycle, not company-specific pricing power.
The Karawang expansion alone costs $3.6B: genuine capital and fiber-supply-access barriers that keep Indonesia's integrated pulp-and-paper industry concentrated among a handful of giants.
Implication → Protects INKP's incumbent position; new large-scale integrated domestic competition is unlikely within a normal planning horizon.
Digital substitution structurally pressures cultural/printing paper (INKP's largest revenue segment), while industrial paper (packaging) benefits from e-commerce-driven demand growth: a partial internal offset within INKP's own product mix.
Implication → INKP's more diversified mix (pulp + cultural paper + industrial paper) carries less concentrated substitution risk than a cultural-paper-only peer.
Competes on a global commodity cost curve against pulp/paper majors from Brazil, Chile, North America and Scandinavia, plus domestic rival APRIL/RGE.
Implication → Direct cause of INKP's margin cyclicality (39.5% gross margin 2022 peak vs 31.6-31.9% in 2024-2025): rivalry, not execution, drives the swing.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Dominated by two Asia Pulp & Paper (Sinar Mas Group) subsidiaries with genuinely different economics: an integrated pulp-and-paper exporter mid-way through a $3.6B capacity expansion, and a paper-only converter whose reported profit is driven more by equity-method investment income than its own thin operating margins; under a parent group whose 2013 "zero deforestation" pledge was found broken by a 2023 Greenpeace investigation.