Equal · Financial Report

Indo Tambangraya Megah

ITMG/FY2021–FY2025/Educational Analysis/USD/Data source · 2026-07-06

ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Tax burden	0.76x	0.76x	0.80x	0.80x	0.76x
Interest burden	1.00x	1.00x	1.00x	0.99x	0.96x
Operating margindriver	30.3%	43.5%	26.3%	20.3%	13.8%
Asset turnover	1.25x	1.38x	1.09x	0.96x	0.78x
Leverage (equity mult.)	1.39x	1.35x	1.22x	1.24x	1.26x
= Return on Equity (consolidated)	39.6%	61.5%	28.0%	19.3%	10.0%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	39.7%	61.6%	28.1%	19.5%	10.4%

Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.

Liquidity

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities)	2.71x	3.26x	4.35x	4.48x	3.76x
Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities)	2.54x	3.09x	4.02x	4.21x	3.43x
Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities)	1.89x	2.44x	2.89x	3.16x	2.35x
Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities)	$ 623 M	$ 1.3 B	$ 986 M	$ 1.1 B	$ 951 M

Leverage & Solvency

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity)	0.04x	0.03x	0.03x	0.04x	0.05x
Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity)	0.39x	0.35x	0.22x	0.24x	0.26x
Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets)	0.03x	0.02x	0.02x	0.03x	0.04x
Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash)	-$ 639 M	-$ 1.4 B	-$ 797 M	-$ 918 M	-$ 719 M
Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense)	278.28x	532.65x	290.73x	128.92x	28.31x
Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity)	1.39x	1.35x	1.22x	1.24x	1.26x

Profitability

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue)	45.7%	53.6%	33.7%	31.4%	27.0%
Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue)	30.3%	43.5%	26.3%	20.3%	13.8%
Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue)	22.9%	33.0%	21.1%	16.2%	10.2%
EBITDA(EBIT + D&A)	$ 701 M	$ 1.7 B	$ 689 M	$ 514 M	$ 299 M
EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue)	33.7%	45.6%	29.0%	22.3%	15.9%
Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets)	28.5%	45.5%	22.9%	15.5%	7.9%
Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners))	39.3%	61.4%	28.0%	19.4%	10.1%
Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax)	0.76x	0.76x	0.80x	0.80x	0.76x
Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT)	1.00x	1.00x	1.00x	0.99x	0.96x
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	39.7%	61.6%	28.1%	19.5%	10.4%

Operations & Efficiency

Turnover	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets)	1.25x	1.38x	1.09x	0.96x	0.78x
Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory)	18.04x	17.56x	16.07x	18.69x	12.20x
Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables)	11.12x	12.96x	12.02x	12.54x	12.12x
Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables)	13.21x	11.70x	14.32x	11.88x	8.70x

Conversion Period	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS)	20.2 days	20.8 days	22.7 days	19.5 days	29.9 days
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue)	32.8 days	28.2 days	30.4 days	29.1 days	30.1 days
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS)	27.6 days	31.2 days	25.5 days	30.7 days	42.0 days
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO)	25.4 days	17.7 days	27.6 days	17.9 days	18.1 days

Cash Flow

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex)	$ 606 M	$ 1.3 B	$ 167 M	$ 384 M	$ 206 M

Valuation

price as-of 2026-07-31fundamentals: FY2025FX 18,058 IDR/USD (2026-07-31)

Price Rp 24,685 · market cap Rp 27 T ($ 1.5 B at the cited rate; statements are filed in USD)

Multiple	ITMG	Peer median	vs median
P/E	7.95x	16.25x(15/16)	-51%
P/B	0.80x	1.68x	-53%
P/S	0.81x	1.92x	-58%
EV/EBITDA	2.70x	10.31x	-74%
EV/EBIT	3.11x	14.25x	-78%
EV/Sales	0.43x	2.27x	-81%
FCF Yield	13.61%	0.01%	+129,117%
Dividend Yield	6.59%	5.27%(11/16)	+25%

EV = mkt cap $ 1.5 B + debt $ 89 M − cash $ 808 M + minority interest $ 9.9 M = $ 808 M

What the price implies

At today’s price, the market is paying for -14.5%/yr FCF growth (-17.0% at 9.3% to -12.2% at 13.3% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -23.6% FCF · -2.4% revenue.

Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 9.3–13.3% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.

Forward DCF (glass-box)

This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.

Cyclical normalization: Commodity/cyclical name: the trailing years are a sample drawn from the price cycle, not a trend. Defaults are therefore normalized, using the full-window mean margin with no cycle-position growth extrapolation. That normalized margin is itself the embedded commodity-price assumption.

Assumption	Value	Basis
Rf (risk-free)	4.66%	US 10Y Treasury, 30 Jul 2026
ERP (Rm − Rf)	6.69%	Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%)
β	0.96 → 1.00	Metals & Mining (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.06
Cost of equity	11.37%	Rf + β × ERP
Cost of debt	6.68%	median interest coverage 278.3x (EBIT ÷ interest, FY2021–FY2025) implies a Aaa/AAA synthetic rating and a 0.40% default spread, over a 6.28% base (US 10Y 4.66% + Indonesia's 1.62% sovereign spread). Its BOOK rate is 10.3%, which is what past debt actually costs; the gap is legacy or subsidised borrowing, not the rate on new debt. Spread table: A. Damodaran, Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread, January 2026 data update (large non-financial service firms)
Tax rate	23.8%	median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest)
WACC	11.02%	94% E × CoE + 6% D × Kd × (1 − t)
Revenue growth (yr 1, fading)	2.5%	terminal growth from year 1, cyclical normalization: the delivered 4-yr CAGR (-2.4%) reflects cycle position, not a trend
EBIT margin	26.8%	full-cycle mean EBIT margin, FY2021–FY2025 (cyclical normalization: this margin is the embedded commodity-price assumption)
D&A / revenue	2.3%	mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs
Capex / revenue	3.1%	mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years. The terminal year instead FUNDS ITS OWN GROWTH: in stable growth g = reinvestment rate x return on capital, and returns are assumed to converge to the 11.0% cost of capital, so the perpetuity reinvests 22.7% of NOPAT and terminal capex is 6.8% of revenue against depreciation of 2.3%. Both simpler rules are wrong in opposite directions: holding the historical ratio charges a build phase in perpetuity, while setting capex equal to depreciation hands the company 2.5% growth forever for no new capital. Because returns converge to the cost of capital, terminal growth here is value-neutral
ΔNWC / Δrevenue	5.2%	median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP)
Terminal growth	2.5%	BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%)

Growth path

year 1 → fading to terminal over 5 yrs2.5%

EBIT margin26.8%

WACC11.0%

Terminal growth2.5%

Explicit years5

FCFF drivers

FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − capex − ΔNWC

Each default is the company's own historical average, which describes the phase it happened to be in. Switch a driver to Per-year when that phase is ending: a company mid-build does not spend at its peak rate forever, and one in a capex pause does not stay there. The terminal year keeps its own ratios, so a taper you enter here changes the explicit window and leaves the perpetuity coherent.

Capex

% of revenue3.1%

D&A

% of revenue2.3%

ΔNWC

% of the CHANGE in revenue5.2%

Year	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	T∞
Growth	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Revenue	$ 1.9 B	$ 2.0 B	$ 2.0 B	$ 2.1 B	$ 2.1 B	$ 2.2 B
EBIT	$ 518 M	$ 531 M	$ 544 M	$ 557 M	$ 571 M	$ 586 M
NOPAT	$ 395 M	$ 404 M	$ 415 M	$ 425 M	$ 436 M	$ 446 M
+ D&A	$ 44 M	$ 45 M	$ 46 M	$ 47 M	$ 48 M	$ 50 M
− Capex	$ 60 M	$ 62 M	$ 64 M	$ 65 M	$ 67 M	$ 148 M
− ΔNWC	$ 2.4 M	$ 2.5 M	$ 2.6 M	$ 2.6 M	$ 2.7 M	$ 2.8 M
FCFF	$ 376 M	$ 385 M	$ 395 M	$ 404 M	$ 415 M	$ 345 M
PV	$ 338 M	$ 312 M	$ 288 M	$ 266 M	$ 246 M	$ 2.4 B

Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5 · equity = EV − net debt − minority · per share = equity ÷ shares outstanding

EV = PV(explicit) $ 1.5 B + PV(TV) $ 2.4 B = $ 3.9 B · TV 62% of EV · − net debt -$ 719 M − minority $ 9.9 M = equity $ 4.6 B ÷ shares outstanding · per share is in USD, shown in IDR at 18,058

Model output: Rp 74,206/share (+201% vs price Rp 24,685)· exit-multiple check (10.3x): Rp 96,796

Under these assumptions the model lands 201% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.

Sensitivity (per share, Rp)

g \ WACC	10.0%	11.0%	12.0%
2.0%	78,415	71,382	65,734
2.5%	82,064	74,206	67,978
3.0%	86,229	77,378	70,468

Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.

Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.

Macro backdropfull backdrop + sensitivity map →

BI Rate 5.75%IDR/USD 18,05810Y government bond yield 7.26%Inflation 3.34%(as-of 2026-07-31)

Coal ↑(H)Nickel ↑(H)Rupiah weaker(H)Oil ↑(M)

Income Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	$ 2.1 B	$ 3.6 B	$ 2.4 B	$ 2.3 B	$ 1.9 B
Cost of Goods Sold	$ 1.1 B	$ 1.7 B	$ 1.6 B	$ 1.6 B	$ 1.4 B
Gross Profit	$ 950 M	$ 1.9 B	$ 800 M	$ 725 M	$ 508 M
Operating Income (EBIT)	$ 629 M	$ 1.6 B	$ 624 M	$ 469 M	$ 260 M
Interest Expense	$ 2.3 M	$ 3.0 M	$ 2.1 M	$ 3.6 M	$ 9.2 M
Net Income	$ 476 M	$ 1.2 B	$ 500 M	$ 374 M	$ 191 M
Net Income Attributable to Owners	$ 476 M	$ 1.2 B	$ 500 M	$ 374 M	$ 191 M
Depreciation & Amortization	$ 72 M	$ 77 M	$ 65 M	$ 46 M	$ 39 M

Balance Sheet

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Equivalents	$ 691 M	$ 1.4 B	$ 851 M	$ 990 M	$ 808 M
Accounts Receivable	$ 187 M	$ 280 M	$ 197 M	$ 184 M	$ 155 M
Inventory	$ 62 M	$ 96 M	$ 98 M	$ 85 M	$ 113 M
Current Assets	$ 988 M	$ 1.9 B	$ 1.3 B	$ 1.4 B	$ 1.3 B
Total Assets	$ 1.7 B	$ 2.6 B	$ 2.2 B	$ 2.4 B	$ 2.4 B
Accounts Payable	$ 85 M	$ 144 M	$ 110 M	$ 133 M	$ 158 M
Current Liabilities	$ 365 M	$ 586 M	$ 294 M	$ 314 M	$ 345 M
Total Liabilities	$ 465 M	$ 690 M	$ 399 M	$ 473 M	$ 498 M
Total Interest-Bearing Debt	$ 52 M	$ 50 M	$ 54 M	$ 72 M	$ 89 M
Total Equity	$ 1.2 B	$ 2.0 B	$ 1.8 B	$ 1.9 B	$ 1.9 B
Equity Attributable to Owners	$ 1.2 B	$ 2.0 B	$ 1.8 B	$ 1.9 B	$ 1.9 B

Cash Flow Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	$ 618 M	$ 1.3 B	$ 221 M	$ 452 M	$ 285 M
Capital Expenditure	$ 12 M	$ 28 M	$ 54 M	$ 68 M	$ 79 M

Company Deep Analysis

Reviewed: 2026-07-31

Analyst Verdict

ITMG gross margin: 45.7 % (2021) → 53.6 % (2022) → 33.7 % (2023) → 31.4 % (2024) → 27.0 % (2025). OPM: 30.3 % → 43.5 % → 26.3 % → 20.3 % → 13.8 %. Net margin: 22.9 % → 33.0 % → 21.1 % → 16.2 % → 10.2 %. ROE: 39.3 % → 61.4 % → 28.0 % → 19.4 % → 10.1 %. ROIC: 39.7 % → 61.6 % → 28.1 % → 19.5 % → 10.4 %. EBITDA margin: 33.7 % → 45.6 % → 29.0 % → 22.3 % → 15.9 %. D/E: near-zero throughout (0.03–0.05) with net cash of −USD 0.64 B to −1.38 B every year. Interest coverage: 278× → 533× → 291× → 129× → 28×. FCF (USD): 606 M → 1,297 M → 167 M → 384 M → 206 M; positive every year. Revenue (USD): 2.08 B → 3.64 B → 2.37 B → 2.30 B → 1.88 B. The descent from the 2022 peak is the steepest in the coal batch, ROE 61.4 % → 10.1 %, because ITMG’s 2022 was an extreme supercycle print and its cost/volume position is less advantaged than BYAN’s (asset turnover fell 1.38× → 0.78× as mature mines yielded less). But the balance sheet is pristine: net cash every year, minimal debt, and interest coverage still 28× even at the 2025 trough. The investment character is a high-yield cash-return vehicle on a depleting asset base: the key question is whether reserve replacement and diversification (solar, mining services, the NICE nickel stake) can offset mine maturity and the secular thermal-coal demand decline before the cash-cow runs down.

Business Model

ITMG mines thermal coal from a portfolio of mature concessions in East, South and Central Kalimantan (via subsidiaries such as Indominco, Trubaindo, Bharinto, Jorong), selling relatively low-ash/low-sulfur coal to Asian power utilities (export) and domestically under DMO. As a Banpu (Thai energy group) subsidiary, it runs a disciplined, cost-focused, high-payout model: earnings convert to cash and out as dividends (~90 % payout). The strategic challenge is mine maturity: several assets are late-life, so ITMG must either extend/acquire reserves or diversify. Its diversification legs are still small: rooftop solar, mining-contractor services, and a July 2025 9.62 % stake (~IDR 260 B) in listed nickel miner Adhi Kartiko Pratama (NICE); early moves to redeploy coal cash into non-thermal streams.

Segments

Overwhelmingly thermal coal today: the diversification (solar, mining services, the NICE nickel stake) is immaterial to current earnings. Within coal, ITMG spans several caloric grades from its different mines, giving some product flexibility across export and domestic buyers. The declining asset turnover (1.38× in 2022 → 0.78× in 2025) is the tell of mine maturity: the same/larger asset base is generating less revenue as easier reserves deplete and volumes require more effort/strip. Unlike ADRO (met coal pivot) or BYAN (volume growth), ITMG’s coal story is one of managed decline plus cash harvest: the diversification is about redeploying that cash, not yet about replacing the coal earnings.

Value Chain & Positioning

Overburden removal → open-pit thermal coal mining (Indominco/Trubaindo/Bharinto/Jorong, Kalimantan) → crushing/blending → haul road / barge → export terminal to Asian utilities, or domestic to PLN under DMO. Coal-quality blending across mines is a modest commercial lever. Emerging legs: solar-rooftop EPC/services and mining-contractor work (leveraging existing capability), plus a minority financial stake in nickel (NICE) as a diversification seed.

Competitive Forces (Porter’s 5)

Supplier powerLow

How much leverage input/funding providers have over pricing.

ITMG owns its concessions and self-performs much mining; contractors, fuel and equipment are competitively sourced. Banpu-group procurement and technical support add scale. Mature-mine economics mean rising strip ratios and unit costs over time: a geological, not supplier, pressure.

Implication → Cost pressure comes from within (mine maturity, rising strip) rather than suppliers. This structurally erodes ITMG’s cost-curve position over time versus a low-strip peer like BYAN.

Buyer powerHigh

How much leverage customers have to push prices down.

Thermal coal is benchmark-priced (ICI/Newcastle): ITMG is a price-taker. Asian utility buyers have abundant alternatives (Australia, Russia, South Africa, other Indonesian producers); domestic PLN buys under the DMO cap. No customer relationship confers pricing power.

Implication → Revenue is fully cycle-driven; ITMG’s levers are cost discipline and product blending, and, for shareholders, the cash payout. Absolute earnings fall as both price and volume soften.

Threat of new entryLow

How easily new competitors can enter the market.

New thermal-coal entry is deterred by IUP/RKAB/AMDAL barriers and, increasingly, ESG-driven financing constraints post-2030. But this protects incumbents in a shrinking market: the relevant threat to ITMG is not new entrants, it is its own reserve depletion and secular demand decline.

Implication → Barriers to entry are irrelevant comfort: ITMG’s challenge is internal (reserve life) and structural (demand), not competitive supply. Reserve replacement is the make-or-break variable.

Threat of substitutesHigh

Risk that alternative products/services replace demand.

Thermal coal faces the sector’s strongest substitution pressure, LNG, solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, with structural demand decline from 2030+ (JETP, coal-retirement targets). ITMG has no met-coal hedge and only nascent clean-energy exposure. Its own rooftop-solar and NICE-nickel moves are an acknowledgement of, not yet a solution to, the substitution risk.

Implication → ITMG is a finite-life cash stream. The bull case is maximising cash return before decline; the diversification must scale meaningfully to change the terminal-value story.

Competitive rivalryHigh

Intensity of competition among existing players.

ITMG competes on the seaborne thermal market against Australia, Russia, South Africa and Indonesian peers (PTBA, ADRO/AADI, BYAN, plus unlisted). Its lower-strip, low-ash coal is decent quality, but it lacks BYAN’s extreme cost advantage and ADRO’s met-coal escape. Rivalry is on delivered cost through a normalising price cycle.

Implication → Mid-pack cost position means ITMG’s margins compress faster than BYAN’s as prices normalise (evident in the ROE 61 % → 10 % descent). Cost discipline and reserve quality are the only defences.

Moat / Competitive Edge

ITMG has no durable pricing moat: it is a benchmark-priced thermal-coal producer with a mid-pack cost position and maturing reserves. Its genuine strengths are financial and operational discipline: a pristine, net-cash balance sheet (minimal debt, interest coverage still 28× at trough), Banpu-group backing, and a track record of high, reliable cash returns (~90 % payout, ~15 % yield). That makes it a resilient cash-return vehicle rather than a compounder: it will keep generating and distributing cash through the cycle, but its asset base is depleting and its end-market is in secular decline. The strategic value hinges entirely on whether it can convert today’s coal cash into replacement reserves or scaled diversification before the coal runs down.

Key Drivers & Sensitivities

Thermal Coal Benchmark (ICI/Newcastle)
The dominant earnings driver. ASP fell ~16 % YoY in 2024, and the descent from the 2022 peak took net profit from USD 1.20 B to USD 0.19 B (2022→2025) despite volume gains. ITMG’s mid-pack cost base means margins are more price-sensitive than a low-cost peer’s: each downcycle compresses returns sharply, each spike restores them.
Reserve Life & Replacement
The structural constraint. Mature Kalimantan mines show up as falling asset turnover (1.38× → 0.78×) and rising unit costs. Without reserve extensions, acquisitions or new concessions, production and earnings face a declining path independent of price. Reserve replacement is the variable that determines whether ITMG is a multi-decade or a wind-down asset.
Dividend Capacity (Net Cash + Payout)
ITMG’s appeal is cash return: positive FCF every year (USD 0.2–1.3 B), net cash of USD 0.6–1.4 B, ~90 % payout and a ~15 % yield make it a high-income instrument on the coal cycle. Payout scales with the price cycle: rich in supercycles, still generous in troughs given the debt-free balance sheet.
Diversification Execution (Solar/Services/Nickel)
Redeploying coal cash into rooftop solar, mining-contractor services and the NICE nickel stake (9.62 %, ~IDR 260 B, Jul 2025) is the transition hedge. Today it is immaterial to earnings; the swing factor is whether Banpu-backed ITMG can scale non-coal streams enough to offset coal decline: a multi-year execution question, not a near-term earnings driver.

Linkages

ITMG feeds the Asian power sector: low-ash thermal coal to utilities in China, Japan, other Asia, and domestically to PLN under DMO. As a Banpu subsidiary it links to a regional energy group pursuing its own coal-to-cleaner-energy transition. Within the mining-metals taxonomy it is a thermal-coal peer to PTBA, ADRO/AADI and BYAN. Its new NICE nickel stake creates a small linkage into the battery-metals cluster (INCO, NCKL, ANTM): an early, financial-scale bridge from coal cash toward transition metals.

Recent Developments

A clean decline from an extraordinary peak. FY2022 delivered revenue of USD 3.64bn, net income of USD 1,200.1m and ROE of 61.4%; by FY2025 those are USD 1.88bn, USD 190.9m and 10.1%. Net income fell 25.2% in FY2024 and a further 49.0% in FY2025. Margins traced the same path, operating margin 43.5% to 13.8% and net margin 33.0% to 10.2%. What did not change is the balance sheet: ITMG held net cash in all five years, USD 719.3m of it at the end of FY2025, with debt to equity never above 0.05× and a current ratio between 2.71× and 4.48×. Asset turnover fell steadily, 1.38× to 0.78×, so the same asset base is doing less work as prices normalise.

Regulation

Governed by IUP concessions, RKAB annual production quotas (ESDM), a 25 % DMO obligation to PLN at a capped price, coal royalties, and AMDAL environmental clearance and mine-rehabilitation obligations (material for late-life mines). Reserve extensions/renewals require ESDM approval. As a Banpu-controlled foreign-linked issuer, ownership and related-party matters apply. Changes to royalty rates, DMO caps or export rules directly affect economics.

ESG & Sustainability

Environmental: thermal coal is the highest-carbon segment (Scope 3 combustion is the core liability), plus mine rehabilitation and water management for late-life Kalimantan pits. Social: community relations and post-mining land use around ageing mines; local employment transition as mines wind down. Governance: Banpu-group control with an established disclosure track record; the diversification into cleaner energy is an ESG-positive signal but small. The reserve-depletion + demand-decline combination is the defining long-run ESG/strategic risk.

Risks

Thermal coal benchmark decline (ROE already 61 % → 10 %): ITMG’s mid-pack cost base compresses margins faster than low-cost peers
Reserve depletion at mature Kalimantan mines (asset turnover 1.38× → 0.78×): a declining production path absent replacement
Energy-transition demand erosion post-2030 caps terminal value; diversification is still immaterial
Dividend sustainability if a deeper/longer coal trough coincides with rising rehabilitation and reserve-replacement spend
Diversification execution risk: solar/services/NICE must scale materially to change the wind-down trajectory

Outlook & What to Watch

Base: coal benchmark near normalised levels → 2026 earnings broadly stable-to-lower, cushioned by cost discipline and volume; net cash sustains the high dividend even as ROE sits in the low double digits. Bull: a coal-price spike + successful reserve extensions → margins and payout re-expand, buying time for diversification. Bear: benchmark falls further + reserve depletion accelerates + diversification stalls → declining earnings and eventual payout pressure; the wind-down scenario. ITMG is best read as a high-yield harvest of a depleting, net-cash coal franchise, with optionality on whether Banpu-backed diversification can extend its life. (Interpretation, not a forecast.)

Key KPIs

Coal Benchmark (USD/t): ICI/Newcastle ASP: the dominant earnings swing
Reserve Life / Asset Turnover: Mine maturity signal (AT 1.38× → 0.78×): the structural constraint
Dividend Yield / Payout: ~15 % yield, ~90 % payout: the cash-return thesis
Net Cash Position: USD 0.6–1.4 B net cash: funds payout and diversification
Diversification Contribution: Solar/services/NICE share of earnings: the transition scorecard

Sources

Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.