…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.67x | 0.76x | 0.74x | 0.71x | 0.74x |
| Interest burden | 0.84x | 0.96x | 0.95x | 0.91x | 0.94x |
| Operating margindriver | 7.4% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 12.9% |
| Asset turnover | 1.14x | 1.32x | 1.26x | 1.34x | 1.36x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.64x | 1.66x | 1.84x | 1.80x | 1.60x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 7.7% | 26.3% | 23.6% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 8.9% | 27.3% | 20.3% | 17.1% | 19.8% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 2.21x | 2.25x | 1.76x | 1.73x | 2.16x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 0.77x | 0.98x | 0.58x | 0.47x | 0.66x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.42x | 0.63x | 0.30x | 0.25x | 0.39x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 4.4 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.24x | 0.29x | 0.42x | 0.37x | 0.21x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.64x | 0.66x | 0.84x | 0.80x | 0.60x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.15x | 0.17x | 0.23x | 0.20x | 0.13x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | Rp 110 M | -Rp 63 M | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 420 M |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 6.21x | 26.93x | 18.19x | 11.36x | 16.28x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.64x | 1.66x | 1.84x | 1.80x | 1.60x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 41.8% | 47.6% | 47.7% | 45.0% | 45.8% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 7.4% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 12.9% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 4.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 662 M | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 3.0 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 11.0% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 14.6% | 15.7% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 4.7% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 12.1% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 7.7% | 26.4% | 24.4% | 19.5% | 19.7% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.67x | 0.76x | 0.74x | 0.71x | 0.74x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.84x | 0.96x | 0.95x | 0.91x | 0.94x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 8.9% | 27.3% | 20.3% | 17.1% | 19.8% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 1.14x | 1.32x | 1.26x | 1.34x | 1.36x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 1.54x | 1.88x | 1.64x | 1.82x | 1.85x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 21.17x | 24.42x | 26.61x | 43.42x | 50.57x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 6.77x | 7.68x | 7.82x | 6.90x | 6.86x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 236.6 days | 194.4 days | 222.0 days | 200.3 days | 197.6 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 17.2 days | 14.9 days | 13.7 days | 8.4 days | 7.2 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 53.9 days | 47.5 days | 46.7 days | 52.9 days | 53.2 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 200.0 days | 161.8 days | 189.1 days | 155.8 days | 151.6 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 772 M | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 321 M | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 2.2 T |
Price Rp 650 · market cap Rp 19 T
| Multiple | MAPA | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.77x | 11.17x | -4% |
| P/B | 2.13x | 1.97x | +8% |
| P/S | 0.96x | 0.53x | +81% |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.32x | 6.25x | +1% |
| EV/EBIT | 7.67x | 7.91x | -3% |
| EV/Sales | 0.99x | 0.52x | +91% |
| FCF Yield | 12.12% | 10.69% | +13% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.62% | 3.37% | -82% |
EV = mkt cap Rp 19 T + debt Rp 1.9 T − cash Rp 1.5 T + minority interest Rp 128 M = Rp 19 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 1.7%/yr FCF growth (-1.1% at 12.0% to 4.4% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 30.6% FCF · 33.7% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.95 → 1.02 | Retail (Special Lines) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.10 |
| Cost of equity | 14.09% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 8.13% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 26.3% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 13.35% | 91% E × CoE + 9% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 30.0% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 33.7% (default capped at 30%), fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 13.3% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 2.4% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 6.5% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 2.4% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 12.7% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 30.0% | 23.1% | 16.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 25 T | Rp 31 T | Rp 36 T | Rp 39 T | Rp 40 T | Rp 41 T |
| EBIT | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 5.3 T | Rp 5.5 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.0 T |
| + D&A | Rp 602 M | Rp 742 M | Rp 862 M | Rp 943 M | Rp 967 M | Rp 991 M |
| − Capex | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 991 M |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 736 M | Rp 738 M | Rp 638 M | Rp 428 M | Rp 125 M | Rp 128 M |
| FCFF | Rp 698 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 3.9 T |
| PV | Rp 616 M | Rp 800 M | Rp 971 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 19 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 4.7 T + PV(TV) Rp 19 T = Rp 24 T · TV 81% of EV · − net debt Rp 420 M − minority Rp 128 M
Model output: Rp 820/share (+26% vs price Rp 650)· exit-multiple check (6.3x): Rp 883
Under these assumptions the model lands 26% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 12.3% | 13.3% | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 882 | 784 | 702 |
| 2.5% | 927 | 820 | 731 |
| 3.0% | 977 | 859 | 763 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 9.8 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 19 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 7.1 T | Rp 9.5 T | Rp 10 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 4.7 T | Rp 6.5 T | Rp 7.7 T | Rp 8.8 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 448 M | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.5 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 72 M | Rp 60 M | Rp 109 M | Rp 185 M | Rp 153 M |
| Net Income | Rp 251 M | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.7 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 251 M | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.7 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 214 M | Rp 220 M | Rp 286 M | Rp 401 M | Rp 533 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 662 M | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 285 M | Rp 401 M | Rp 510 M | Rp 396 M | Rp 381 M |
| Inventory | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.7 T | Rp 4.3 T | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 5.7 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 4.8 T | Rp 6.4 T | Rp 7.1 T | Rp 8.1 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 5.3 T | Rp 7.4 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 14 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 519 M | Rp 668 M | Rp 907 M | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 3.8 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 5.3 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 772 M | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 1.9 T |
| Total Equity | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 5.9 T | Rp 7.1 T | Rp 8.8 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 4.5 T | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 7.0 T | Rp 8.7 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 884 M | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.2 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 112 M | Rp 375 M | Rp 961 M | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 969 M |
MAPA is a high-quality specialty retailer, operating exclusive sport and outdoor brand stores across Indonesia. Its post-COVID recovery was dramatic: ROIC surged from 8.9% (2021) to 27.3% (2022) as pent-up demand and operating leverage combined with a mix shift toward premium sport brands. The normalised 2025 base (ROIC 19.8%, ROE 19.8%, GM 45.8%) reflects a structurally stronger business than before the pandemic, driven by the secular athleisure tailwind and MAPA's exclusive brand partnerships. D/E compressed from 0.42 at the 2023 expansion peak to 0.21 in 2025 while FCF grew to IDR 2.25 T, and both point to growth it can fund itself. The essential risk is its moat: the exclusivity contracts with Nike, Adidas and other international brands are what make the model work, and any shift in their distribution strategy toward direct-to-consumer would structurally impair it.
Nike, Adidas, The North Face (VF Corp), and other global brand owners set MAPA's product allocation, pricing frameworks, and margin terms. The exclusive distribution arrangement creates mutual dependence but the brand owners have substantial leverage as they can appoint alternative or direct-to-consumer partners.
Implication → High supplier power caps the gross margin ceiling and makes MAPA's business model fundamentally dependent on maintaining commercial relationships: the most critical risk in the investment thesis.
Individual consumers have limited power: premium sport and outdoor brands command aspirational loyalty and limited price negotiation. However, e-commerce channels offer some price discovery and comparison shopping for the same brand products.
Implication → Low buyer power supports the 45–48% gross margin; aspirational brand demand creates pricing power that benefits MAPA as the exclusive distributor.
Exclusive distribution agreements with Nike, Adidas, and key brands create high barriers to entry: a new entrant cannot legally stock these brands without brand owner consent. The mall presence network (scale) further deters entry.
Implication → The exclusivity moat is strong; the primary threat is not from new physical entrants but from brand owners themselves moving to direct retail or e-commerce.
E-commerce platforms (Tokopedia, Shopee, Zalora) sell authentic brand products and are a substitute retail channel. Brand-direct online stores (Nike.com, Adidas.com) compete for the same consumer. Fast-fashion athletic brands (Decathlon own-brand, local brands) substitute on price.
Implication → Channel substitution to e-commerce is the primary substitute risk; brand-loyal consumers mitigate but do not eliminate this. Decathlon's aggressive Indonesia expansion is a growing price-point substitute.
Primary physical competitor is Decathlon (own-brand, mid-market, aggressive expansion) and Sports Direct (if entering Indonesia). Within premium segments, MAPA's exclusive arrangements largely eliminate direct physical competition. E-commerce rivalry is more intense.
Implication → Physical rivalry is moderate; MAPA's exclusivity insulates premium brand stores from direct competition. The secular athleisure tailwind supports all players in the segment.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's USD 57 B retail market is the largest in Southeast Asia, anchored by two minimarket giants (Alfamart and Indomaret), with premium lifestyle and specialty chains capturing the middle-class trade-up, and e-commerce reshaping >20 % of transactions.