Equal
…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.60x | 0.80x | 0.62x | 0.63x | 0.66x |
| Interest burdendriver | 0.60x | 0.85x | 0.88x | 0.83x | 0.86x |
| Operating margin | 6.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
| Asset turnover | 1.10x | 1.28x | 1.21x | 1.28x | 1.31x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 2.35x | 2.15x | 2.22x | 2.04x | 1.91x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 5.9% | 21.7% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 13.0% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 7.4% | 21.5% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 1.23x | 1.42x | 1.36x | 1.44x | 1.61x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 0.67x | 0.80x | 0.62x | 0.69x | 0.79x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.42x | 0.51x | 0.33x | 0.37x | 0.44x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 7.0 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.71x | 0.58x | 0.67x | 0.54x | 0.45x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 1.35x | 1.15x | 1.22x | 1.04x | 0.91x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.30x | 0.27x | 0.30x | 0.26x | 0.24x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 4.6 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 2.7 T |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 2.48x | 6.79x | 8.03x | 5.95x | 7.24x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 2.35x | 2.15x | 2.22x | 2.04x | 1.91x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 40.8% | 44.0% | 44.3% | 41.6% | 40.4% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 6.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 2.3% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 5.1 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 11.0% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 11.9% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 2.5% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 7.1% | 26.0% | 18.9% | 15.1% | 16.0% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.60x | 0.80x | 0.62x | 0.63x | 0.66x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.60x | 0.85x | 0.88x | 0.83x | 0.86x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 7.4% | 21.5% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 1.10x | 1.28x | 1.21x | 1.28x | 1.31x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 2.92x | 3.21x | 2.30x | 2.67x | 2.75x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 45.55x | 39.08x | 43.57x | 46.42x | 55.69x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 6.21x | 6.32x | 7.13x | 7.04x | 7.96x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 124.8 days | 113.8 days | 159.0 days | 136.8 days | 132.9 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 8.0 days | 9.3 days | 8.4 days | 7.9 days | 6.6 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 58.8 days | 57.8 days | 51.2 days | 51.8 days | 45.9 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 74.1 days | 65.3 days | 116.2 days | 92.9 days | 93.5 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 3.2 T | -Rp 77 M | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 4.0 T |
Price Rp 1,555 · market cap Rp 26 T
| Multiple | MAPI | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.57x | 11.17x | +4% |
| P/B | 1.85x | 1.97x | -6% |
| P/S | 0.60x | 0.53x | +13% |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.18x | 6.25x | -1% |
| EV/EBIT | 8.14x | 7.91x | +3% |
| EV/Sales | 0.74x | 0.52x | +42% |
| FCF Yield | 15.56% | 10.69% | +46% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.64% | 3.37% | -81% |
EV = mkt cap Rp 26 T + debt Rp 7.7 T − cash Rp 5.0 T + minority interest Rp 3.2 T = Rp 32 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 0.6%/yr FCF growth (-2.2% at 12.0% to 3.2% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: 11.0% FCF · 23.7% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, re-verified 31 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.95 → 1.14 | Retail (Special Lines) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.30 |
| Cost of equity | 14.85% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 7.81% | median interest coverage 6.8x (EBIT ÷ interest, FY2021–FY2025) implies a Aa2/AA synthetic rating and a 0.55% default spread, over a 7.26% base (Indonesia 10Y 7.26%, already the sovereign rate). Its BOOK rate is 7.0%, which is what past debt actually costs; the gap is legacy or subsidised borrowing, not the rate on new debt. Spread table: A. Damodaran, Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread, January 2026 data update (large non-financial service firms) |
| Tax rate | 35.0% | median effective rate FY2021–FY2025 computed to 37.1%, CLAMPED to 35%: above that ceiling the pretax approximation is carrying minority interests, which are already deducted separately from enterprise value, rather than tax |
| WACC | 12.60% | 77% E × CoE + 23% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 23.7% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 23.7%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 9.5% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 2.8% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 5.4% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years. The terminal year instead FUNDS ITS OWN GROWTH: in stable growth g = reinvestment rate x return on capital, and returns are assumed to converge to the 12.6% cost of capital, so the perpetuity reinvests 19.8% of NOPAT and terminal capex is 3.8% of revenue against depreciation of 2.8%. Both simpler rules are wrong in opposite directions: holding the historical ratio charges a build phase in perpetuity, while setting capex equal to depreciation hands the company 2.5% growth forever for no new capital. Because returns converge to the cost of capital, terminal growth here is value-neutral |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 12.5% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
Each default is the company's own historical average, which describes the phase it happened to be in. Switch a driver to Per-year when that phase is ending: a company mid-build does not spend at its peak rate forever, and one in a capex pause does not stay there. The terminal year keeps its own ratios, so a taper you enter here changes the explicit window and leaves the perpetuity coherent.
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 23.7% | 18.4% | 13.1% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 53 T | Rp 63 T | Rp 71 T | Rp 77 T | Rp 79 T | Rp 81 T |
| EBIT | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 6.8 T | Rp 7.3 T | Rp 7.5 T | Rp 7.7 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 4.7 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 5.0 T |
| + D&A | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.3 T |
| − Capex | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.2 T | Rp 3.0 T |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 693 M | Rp 240 M | Rp 246 M |
| FCFF | Rp 668 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 4.0 T |
| PV | Rp 593 M | Rp 848 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 22 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5 · equity = EV − net debt − minority · per share = equity ÷ shares outstanding
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 5.3 T + PV(TV) Rp 22 T = Rp 27 T · TV 80% of EV · − net debt Rp 2.7 T − minority Rp 3.2 T = equity Rp 21 T ÷ shares outstanding
Model output: Rp 1,279/share (-18% vs price Rp 1,555)· exit-multiple check (6.3x): Rp 1,985
Under these assumptions the model lands 18% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 11.6% | 12.6% | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 1,417 | 1,213 | 1,047 |
| 2.5% | 1,501 | 1,279 | 1,099 |
| 3.0% | 1,595 | 1,352 | 1,157 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 18 T | Rp 27 T | Rp 33 T | Rp 38 T | Rp 43 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 11 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 19 T | Rp 22 T | Rp 26 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 7.5 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 17 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.4 T | Rp 3.9 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 471 M | Rp 455 M | Rp 436 M | Rp 567 M | Rp 539 M |
| Net Income | Rp 420 M | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.2 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 420 M | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.2 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 861 M | Rp 818 M | Rp 943 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.2 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 5.0 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 404 M | Rp 689 M | Rp 765 M | Rp 815 M | Rp 774 M |
| Inventory | Rp 3.7 T | Rp 4.7 T | Rp 8.1 T | Rp 8.3 T | Rp 9.3 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 8.2 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 18 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 17 T | Rp 21 T | Rp 28 T | Rp 30 T | Rp 33 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.2 T |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 6.7 T | Rp 7.6 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 11 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 9.6 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 16 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 8.3 T | Rp 7.8 T | Rp 7.7 T |
| Total Equity | Rp 7.1 T | Rp 9.8 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 17 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 5.9 T | Rp 8.1 T | Rp 10.0 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 14 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 3.0 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 5.8 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 388 M | Rp 911 M | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 1.8 T |
MAPI is a diversified retail platform, holding exclusive franchise rights to 90+ global brands across department stores (Sogo, Centro), F&B (Starbucks, Pizza Express), fashion (Zara, H&M, Marks & Spencer) and, before the MAPA spin-off, sports. Its post-COVID recovery was strong, with ROE peaking at 26.0% and ROIC at 21.5% in 2022. The normalised 2025 base (ROE 16.0%, ROIC 13.0%, GM 40.4%, D/E 0.45) shows a structurally healthy business that is now moderating. FCF has grown to IDR 4.02 T (2025), which is funding the deleveraging of the balance sheet. The risk profile centres on sensitivity to discretionary spending and F&B market saturation, while the moat rests on the sheer breadth and exclusivity of its franchise holdings, which competitors cannot easily replicate.
Starbucks, Zara (Inditex), H&M, M&S, and Harvey Nichols are global franchise principals with significant power over MAPI's operational standards, royalty rates, and product sourcing. F&B supply chains (coffee, food ingredients) add commodity cost exposure. However, MAPI's scale (90+ brands, 3,200+ stores) gives it negotiating weight as Indonesia's premier retail franchise partner.
Implication → Moderate supplier power: global brand principals set margin ceilings, but MAPI's scale and Indonesia market access create bilateral dependency that limits unilateral price extraction by franchisors.
Individual retail and F&B consumers have negligible bargaining power. Starbucks loyalty (Starbucks Rewards) and fashion brand aspiration lock in repeat visits without meaningful price negotiation at the consumer level.
Implication → Low buyer power supports structural GM of 40–44%; Starbucks loyalty ecosystem is particularly valuable in smoothing consumer demand and supporting premium pricing.
MAPI holds long-term exclusive franchise rights for its 90+ brands. A new entrant cannot operate Starbucks, Zara, or Harvey Nichols stores in Indonesia without MAPI's consent. Scale (3,200+ stores) and the depth of existing franchise relationships create a very high entry barrier.
Implication → Low threat of entry is MAPI's most durable competitive position; the primary risk is from existing brands opting for direct ownership over franchise renewal.
Local F&B chains and coffee shops (Kopi Kenangan, Janji Jiwa) offer price alternatives to Starbucks. Fast-fashion e-commerce (Zalora, Shopee) substitutes fashion retail. General merchandise platforms substitute department-store anchor categories.
Implication → Substitution risk is real but segmented: premium Starbucks's brand moat is strong; fashion retail faces higher e-commerce substitution, particularly in lower-income demographics.
MAPI competes with local F&B brands (coffee, dining), e-commerce platforms for fashion, and mall anchor competitors (HERO, RANCH Market for food retail). No competitor holds the same breadth of international franchise rights in Indonesia.
Implication → Rivalry is managed through franchise exclusivity; the F&B segment faces more dynamic rivalry than fashion or department store due to the lower entry cost for local food brands.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's USD 57 B retail market is the largest in Southeast Asia, anchored by two minimarket giants (Alfamart and Indomaret), with premium lifestyle and specialty chains capturing the middle-class trade-up, and e-commerce reshaping >20 % of transactions.