…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 2.44x | 0.24x | 0.32x | 0.27x |
| Interest burdendriver | 0.29x | 0.60x | 0.90x | 0.84x |
| Operating margin | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 9.1% |
| Asset turnover | 0.19x | 0.41x | 0.54x | 0.38x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.55x | 1.41x | 1.46x | 1.59x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 1.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 2.85x | 2.19x | 1.92x | 1.62x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 2.37x | 1.39x | 1.26x | 1.20x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 1.70x | 0.81x | 0.58x | 0.34x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | $ 305 M | $ 426 M | $ 385 M | $ 346 M |
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.39x | 0.21x | 0.29x | 0.40x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.55x | 0.41x | 0.46x | 0.59x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.25x | 0.15x | 0.20x | 0.25x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | $ 335 M | $ 202 M | $ 440 M | $ 752 M |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 1.42x | 2.52x | 10.48x | 6.43x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.55x | 1.41x | 1.46x | 1.59x |
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 9.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 11.6% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 9.1% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 4.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | $ 48 M | $ 100 M | $ 166 M | $ 221 M |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 10.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 15.4% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 2.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 2.44x | 0.24x | 0.32x | 0.27x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.29x | 0.60x | 0.90x | 0.84x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Turnover | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.19x | 0.41x | 0.54x | 0.38x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 5.21x | 4.35x | 6.29x | 5.46x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 7.10x | 11.14x | 10.30x | 4.95x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 6.23x | 4.77x | 8.66x | 8.05x |
| Conversion Period | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 70.0 days | 84.0 days | 58.0 days | 66.9 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 51.4 days | 32.8 days | 35.4 days | 73.7 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 58.6 days | 76.5 days | 42.1 days | 45.3 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 62.8 days | 40.2 days | 51.3 days | 95.3 days |
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | -$ 419 M | -$ 384 M | -$ 163 M | -$ 156 M |
Price Rp 505 · market cap Rp 55 T ($ 3.0 B at the cited rate; statements are filed in USD)
| Multiple | MBMA | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 102.16x | 16.25x(15/16) | +529% |
| P/B | 1.91x | 1.68x | +13% |
| P/S | 2.11x | 1.92x | +10% |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.50x | 10.31x | +99% |
| EV/EBIT | 34.65x | 14.25x | +143% |
| EV/Sales | 3.16x | 2.27x | +39% |
| FCF Yield | -5.15% | 0.01% | -49,015% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 5.27%(11/16) | — |
EV = mkt cap $ 3.0 B + debt $ 945 M − cash $ 193 M + minority interest $ 764 M = $ 4.5 B
not computable: negative or zero base-year FCF. Shown as-is rather than estimated.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 9.3–13.3% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
Mechanical DCF suppressed: on these default assumptions the modelled enterprise value falls BELOW net debt and minority interests, so the equity residual is negative. Equity cannot be worth less than nothing, so no per-share figure is published here: read it as the model saying the debt claims consume the whole enterprise at this discount rate and growth path, which is itself the signal. The components are shown below so the arithmetic stays checkable, and the sliders let you test what it would take to change the answer.
Cyclical normalization: Commodity/cyclical name: the trailing years are a sample drawn from the price cycle, not a trend. Defaults are therefore normalized, using the full-window mean margin with no cycle-position growth extrapolation. That normalized margin is itself the embedded commodity-price assumption.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 4.66% | US 10Y Treasury, 10 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.96 → 1.19 | Metals & Mining (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.31 |
| Cost of equity | 12.65% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 3.00% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt (clamped to a 3–20% sane band) |
| Tax rate | 22.0% | statutory 22% (no clean effective-rate year in window) |
| WACC | 10.19% | 76% E × CoE + 24% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 2.5% | terminal growth from year 1, cyclical normalization: the delivered 3-yr CAGR (46.6%) reflects cycle position, not a trend |
| EBIT margin | 5.9% | full-cycle mean EBIT margin, FY2022–FY2025 (cyclical normalization: this margin is the embedded commodity-price assumption) |
| D&A / revenue | 5.0% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 18.1% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 5.0% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 7.8% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | $ 1.5 B | $ 1.5 B | $ 1.5 B | $ 1.6 B | $ 1.6 B | $ 1.7 B |
| EBIT | $ 87 M | $ 89 M | $ 91 M | $ 93 M | $ 96 M | $ 98 M |
| NOPAT | $ 68 M | $ 69 M | $ 71 M | $ 73 M | $ 75 M | $ 77 M |
| + D&A | $ 73 M | $ 75 M | $ 77 M | $ 79 M | $ 81 M | $ 83 M |
| − Capex | $ 266 M | $ 273 M | $ 280 M | $ 287 M | $ 294 M | $ 83 M |
| − ΔNWC | $ 2.8 M | $ 2.9 M | $ 2.9 M | $ 3.0 M | $ 3.1 M | $ 3.1 M |
| FCFF | -$ 128 M | -$ 131 M | -$ 135 M | -$ 138 M | -$ 141 M | $ 73 M |
| PV | -$ 116 M | -$ 108 M | -$ 101 M | -$ 94 M | -$ 87 M | $ 588 M |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) -$ 506 M + PV(TV) $ 588 M = $ 82 M · TV 719% of EV · − net debt $ 752 M − minority $ 764 M
Model output: Rp -240/share (-148% vs price Rp 505)· exit-multiple check (10.3x): Rp -151
Under these assumptions the model lands 148% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | -231 | -246 | -258 |
| 2.5% | -222 | -240 | -253 |
| 3.0% | -212 | -233 | -248 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $ 456 M | $ 1.3 B | $ 1.8 B | $ 1.4 B |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $ 411 M | $ 1.3 B | $ 1.7 B | $ 1.3 B |
| Gross Profit | $ 44 M | $ 77 M | $ 114 M | $ 166 M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $ 30 M | $ 47 M | $ 79 M | $ 131 M |
| Interest Expense | $ 21 M | $ 19 M | $ 7.6 M | $ 20 M |
| Net Income | $ 22 M | $ 6.9 M | $ 23 M | $ 30 M |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | $ 22 M | $ 6.9 M | $ 23 M | $ 30 M |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $ 18 M | $ 52 M | $ 86 M | $ 90 M |
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $ 280 M | $ 290 M | $ 244 M | $ 193 M |
| Accounts Receivable | $ 64 M | $ 119 M | $ 179 M | $ 290 M |
| Inventory | $ 79 M | $ 288 M | $ 275 M | $ 232 M |
| Current Assets | $ 469 M | $ 784 M | $ 804 M | $ 905 M |
| Total Assets | $ 2.4 B | $ 3.3 B | $ 3.4 B | $ 3.7 B |
| Accounts Payable | $ 66 M | $ 262 M | $ 200 M | $ 157 M |
| Current Liabilities | $ 164 M | $ 358 M | $ 419 M | $ 559 M |
| Total Liabilities | $ 862 M | $ 954 M | $ 1.1 B | $ 1.4 B |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | $ 615 M | $ 492 M | $ 684 M | $ 945 M |
| Total Equity | $ 1.6 B | $ 2.3 B | $ 2.3 B | $ 2.3 B |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | $ 957 M | $ 1.5 B | $ 1.6 B | $ 1.6 B |
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 109 M | -$ 15 M | $ 78 M | $ 37 M |
| Capital Expenditure | $ 528 M | $ 369 M | $ 242 M | $ 193 M |
MBMA gross margin: 9.74 % (2022) → 5.83 % (2023) → 6.19 % (2024) → 11.61 % (2025). OPM: 6.62 % → 3.55 % → 4.31 % → 9.13 %. Net margin: 4.75 % → 0.52 % (2023 low) → 1.23 % → 2.06 % (2025 high, still thin). ROE: 2.26 % → 0.45 % (2023 low) → 1.47 % → 1.87 %. ROIC: 1.59 % → 0.46 % → 0.90 % → 1.13 %. Asset turnover: 0.19× → 0.41× → 0.54× (peak) → 0.38×. D/E: 0.39× → 0.21× → 0.29× → 0.40× (2025 high); L/E: 0.55× → 0.41× → 0.46× → 0.59×. Net debt: $335.0 M (2022) → $202.2 M (2023, improved) → $440.1 M (2024, worsened) → $752.3 M (2025, worst); more than doubled since 2022 despite the IPO proceeds. Interest coverage: 1.42× (2022, dangerously thin) → 2.52× → 10.48× (2024 high) → 6.43× (2025); the most volatile, non-monotonic coverage trajectory of any company tracked in this project. FCF (USD): −$419.0 M → −$384.4 M → −$163.3 M → −$155.6 M; negative all 4 years, though the burn rate has slowed. Current ratio: 2.85× → 2.19× → 1.92× → 1.62×; declining every year, still above 1× but the trend is worth watching. Revenue (USD): $455.7 M → $1,328.3 M → $1,844.7 M (2024 peak) → $1,434.5 M (2025, −22.2 %). This is the weakest financial profile of any mining-metals name in this project by margin and ROE: a genuine, still-unresolved capital-intensive build-out, not yet a proven business at scale.
MBMA controls its own mining (SCM) and processing (ZHN RKEF, HPAL 1a) assets under construction, reducing long-run third-party dependency once the build-out completes: though during construction it depends heavily on EPC contractors and equipment suppliers.
Implication → Construction-phase supplier/contractor dependency is a real, if temporary, risk layered on top of the company's already-thin margins.
Nickel is increasingly LME-benchmark-priced as MBMA scales, the same price-taker dynamic as INCO and NCKL; battery-materials buyers (EV/cathode makers) have multiple competing Indonesian and Chinese-JV suppliers to choose from.
Implication → MBMA cannot price its way to better margins: utilisation and cost control at the newly-built smelter/mine assets are the only levers available.
Nickel processing (RKEF/HPAL) is capital-intensive enough to deter casual entrants, but MBMA's own experience: a multi-year, multi-project build-out still not fully reflected in profitability 3 years post-IPO; shows entry is neither cheap nor fast even for a well-capitalised, MDKA-backed entrant.
Implication → The barrier protects incumbents once built out, but the build-out period itself is where MBMA currently sits: a multi-year execution risk, not yet a competitive advantage.
Battery-grade nickel/cobalt sits on the structurally-favoured side of the energy transition (EV/battery demand growth), unlike thermal coal: a genuine long-run demand tailwind shared with INCO and NCKL.
Implication → The long-run demand backdrop is favourable: MBMA's challenge is near-term execution and profitability, not a structurally shrinking market.
MBMA competes with INCO and NCKL's established HPAL/matte operations and with Chinese-JV RKEF/HPAL players (Huayou/QMB, named in the industry's own prose) for the same nickel/cobalt battery-materials demand: as a still-building entrant, it is not yet competing from a position of operational strength.
Implication → MBMA is a scale-disadvantaged, margin-disadvantaged challenger relative to INCO/NCKL today: its investment case rests on the build-out eventually closing that gap, not on current performance.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia controls >60 % of global nickel supply and is the world's largest thermal-coal exporter; hilirisasi mandates in-country ore processing, reshaping value chains from raw ore to battery-grade products.