…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.75x | 0.77x | 0.77x | 0.77x | 0.81x |
| Interest burden | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.99x |
| Operating margindriver | 37.9% | 32.6% | 28.3% | 30.9% | 31.8% |
| Asset turnover | 0.63x | 0.59x | 0.58x | 0.59x | 0.58x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.16x | 1.13x | 1.11x | 1.13x | 1.13x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 20.7% | 16.4% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 16.7% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 20.9% | 16.6% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 16.9% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 4.19x | 3.82x | 4.97x | 4.74x | 4.43x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 4.11x | 3.73x | 4.82x | 4.65x | 4.34x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 1.68x | 1.07x | 1.52x | 1.52x | 3.06x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.6 T | Rp 2.8 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.16x | 0.13x | 0.11x | 0.13x | 0.13x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x | 0.00x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | -Rp 1.3 T | -Rp 696 M | -Rp 840 M | -Rp 1.1 T | -Rp 2.5 T |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 135.03x | 102.66x | 77.76x | 85.87x | 98.60x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.16x | 1.13x | 1.11x | 1.13x | 1.13x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 51.3% | 50.0% | 48.6% | 51.7% | 53.2% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 37.9% | 32.6% | 28.3% | 30.9% | 31.8% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 28.2% | 24.9% | 21.5% | 23.5% | 25.4% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 2.0 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 42.3% | 38.0% | 34.3% | 36.9% | 37.9% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 17.9% | 14.6% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 14.7% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 23.3% | 18.6% | 15.7% | 17.6% | 18.8% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.75x | 0.77x | 0.77x | 0.77x | 0.81x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.99x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 20.9% | 16.6% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 16.9% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.63x | 0.59x | 0.58x | 0.59x | 0.58x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 31.65x | 32.36x | 26.83x | 37.56x | 32.76x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 16.80x | 9.42x | 6.18x | 6.74x | 7.32x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 10.30x | 11.72x | 11.18x | 10.90x | 9.34x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 11.5 days | 11.3 days | 13.6 days | 9.7 days | 11.1 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 21.7 days | 38.7 days | 59.1 days | 54.2 days | 49.9 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 35.4 days | 31.1 days | 32.6 days | 33.5 days | 39.1 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | -2.2 days | 18.9 days | 40.0 days | 30.4 days | 21.9 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 309 M | Rp 763 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 960 M |
Price Rp 1,765 · market cap Rp 25 T
| Multiple | MIKA | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.97x | 25.68x | -30% |
| P/B | 3.38x | 2.95x | +15% |
| P/S | 4.57x | 2.22x | +105% |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.27x | 11.27x | 0% |
| EV/EBIT | 13.42x | 16.82x | -20% |
| EV/Sales | 4.27x | 2.28x | +87% |
| FCF Yield | 3.91% | 2.34% | +67% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.44% | 1.87%(2/3) | +30% |
Only 3 peers are covered here, so the median is itself one of the members. A 0% gap can simply mean MIKA sits at the median.
EV = mkt cap Rp 25 T + debt Rp 9.6 M − cash Rp 2.5 T + minority interest Rp 919 M = Rp 23 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 17.5%/yr FCF growth (14.0% at 12.0% to 20.7% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -10.6% FCF · 5.4% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
Base year contains named one-off item(s): FY2021: COVID-era case mix and tariffs inflate the base year: revenue Rp4.35tn, operating margin 37.9%, net margin 28.2%, ROE 23.3%, every one a five-year high.; FY2022: COVID volumes rolled off after the January 2022 tariff reset, so revenue fell 7.0% to Rp4.05tn even while the group was adding hospital capacity.. The EBIT basis screens out most non-operating items, but read the Earnings Quality section before trusting the base margin.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.55 → 0.55 | Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.00 |
| Cost of equity | 10.94% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 20.00% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt (clamped to a 3–20% sane band) |
| Tax rate | 23.0% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 10.94% | 100% E × CoE + 0% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 5.4% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 5.4%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 30.3% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 6.0% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 15.1% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 6.0% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | -3.4% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 5.7 T | Rp 5.9 T | Rp 6.2 T | Rp 6.4 T | Rp 6.5 T | Rp 6.7 T |
| EBIT | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.0 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.6 T |
| + D&A | Rp 342 M | Rp 357 M | Rp 372 M | Rp 384 M | Rp 393 M | Rp 403 M |
| − Capex | Rp 857 M | Rp 896 M | Rp 932 M | Rp 962 M | Rp 986 M | Rp 403 M |
| − ΔNWC | -Rp 9.9 M | -Rp 9.0 M | -Rp 8.0 M | -Rp 6.8 M | -Rp 5.4 M | -Rp 5.6 M |
| FCFF | Rp 816 M | Rp 852 M | Rp 885 M | Rp 912 M | Rp 933 M | Rp 1.6 T |
| PV | Rp 735 M | Rp 693 M | Rp 648 M | Rp 602 M | Rp 555 M | Rp 11 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 3.2 T + PV(TV) Rp 11 T = Rp 14 T · TV 77% of EV · − net debt -Rp 2.5 T − minority Rp 919 M
Model output: Rp 1,142/share (-35% vs price Rp 1,765)· exit-multiple check (11.3x): Rp 1,491
Under these assumptions the model lands 35% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 9.9% | 10.9% | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 1,221 | 1,084 | 975 |
| 2.5% | 1,297 | 1,142 | 1,021 |
| 3.0% | 1,384 | 1,208 | 1,073 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 4.0 T | Rp 4.3 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 5.4 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.4 T | Rp 2.5 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.9 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 1.6 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.5 T | Rp 1.7 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 12 M | Rp 13 M | Rp 15 M | Rp 18 M | Rp 17 M |
| Net Income | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 916 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.4 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 916 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.4 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 193 M | Rp 218 M | Rp 258 M | Rp 292 M | Rp 327 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 696 M | Rp 843 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 2.5 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 259 M | Rp 430 M | Rp 690 M | Rp 723 M | Rp 733 M |
| Inventory | Rp 67 M | Rp 63 M | Rp 82 M | Rp 63 M | Rp 77 M |
| Current Assets | Rp 3.2 T | Rp 2.5 T | Rp 2.8 T | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 3.7 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 6.9 T | Rp 6.9 T | Rp 7.3 T | Rp 8.2 T | Rp 9.3 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 206 M | Rp 173 M | Rp 196 M | Rp 216 M | Rp 269 M |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 762 M | Rp 653 M | Rp 556 M | Rp 700 M | Rp 831 M |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 936 M | Rp 786 M | Rp 741 M | Rp 917 M | Rp 1.1 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 0 | Rp 0 | Rp 3.1 M | Rp 1.6 M | Rp 9.6 M |
| Total Equity | Rp 5.9 T | Rp 6.1 T | Rp 6.6 T | Rp 7.3 T | Rp 8.2 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 5.3 T | Rp 5.4 T | Rp 5.8 T | Rp 6.5 T | Rp 7.3 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 1.9 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 588 M | Rp 826 M | Rp 551 M | Rp 699 M | Rp 975 M |
Mitra Keluarga is the premium private-hospital group (~30 hospitals, focused on Greater Jakarta and Surabaya) and the margin leader in the sector, with EBITDA margin 37.9%, net margin 25.4% and an ROE of 18.8% (15.7–23.3% across the five years), all on a net-cash balance sheet. Its edge is a private-pay and insurance focus (low reliance on BPJS), mature hospitals running at high occupancy, and genuine operating discipline. It grows more deliberately than scale-chasers like Hermina. This is the quality compounder of Indonesian hospitals, and the factors that move it are patient intensity, the private-pay mix, and the pace of its (deliberately disciplined) expansion.
MIKA runs ~30 premium hospitals in affluent Greater Jakarta and Surabaya; a new hospital is a big capital outlay that dilutes margin until it matures.
EconomicsMature, high-occupancy hospitals are the profit engine; young ones drag until they ramp, which is exactly why MIKA expands deliberately rather than chasing scale.
It deliberately skews to private-pay and privately-insured patients and keeps reliance on BPJS national insurance low.
EconomicsPrivate and insured patients pay far more than BPJS capped tariffs, so this patient mix IS the margin advantage, net margin ~25% versus lower-mix peers.
High occupancy plus complex, higher-value procedures (case intensity) in mature hospitals is the utilisation engine.
EconomicsA hospital cost base is largely fixed (staff, equipment, building), so high occupancy spreads it, which is how MIKA earns the sector best EBITDA margin at ~37%.
Operating discipline on occupancy, case mix and staffing keeps the mature hospitals efficient.
EconomicsOn a fixed-cost base, efficiency compounds straight into margin, which is why MIKA leads the sector on margin without chasing the fastest growth.
Free cash flow grew from ~Rp0.3tn to ~Rp1.0tn and funds expansion from cash, on a net-cash balance sheet (D/E ~0).
EconomicsGrowth without borrowing means the 15.7–23.3% ROE is clean, not levered, and each new hospital adds capacity without adding financial risk.
Cost structureFixed-cost, occupancy-driven. The big costs, specialists, nurses, equipment and the building, are largely fixed regardless of how many patients come through. So profitability is a utilisation game: high occupancy and higher-intensity cases spread those fixed costs, which is why mature full hospitals earn EBITDA ~37% while new ones dilute until they fill. The deliberate private-pay mix lifts revenue per patient over that fixed base.
Cash cycleCash-generative and self-funding. Private and insured patients pay promptly, versus slower BPJS reimbursement, so collection is quick; with net cash, MIKA funds new hospitals from its own operating cash flow (FCF ~Rp0.3tn to ~Rp1.0tn) rather than debt. The main outflow is deliberate, measured capex on the next hospital.
Unit economicsPer hospital, it is a fixed-cost utilisation story: below a certain occupancy a hospital loses money on its fixed base; above it, each additional patient, especially a higher-intensity private-pay one, is high-margin. MIKA edge is choosing the richer patient mix AND running mature hospitals full, the two levers that produce the sector best margins.
Specialist doctors and medical equipment drive costs; MIKA’s premium brand helps attract top specialists.
Implication → Doctor quality is central to the premium model; equipment costs (some FX) apply.
Private-pay and insured patients are less price-driven than BPJS; low BPJS reliance protects pricing.
Implication → The key margin advantage: minimal exposure to capped BPJS tariffs sustains ~25% net margins.
Premium hospitals need capital, brand and specialists; new clusters can enter affluent areas.
Implication → The premium brand and mature network defend MIKA, but affluent markets attract entrants.
Limited substitutes for hospital care; some overseas-treatment leakage at the high end.
Implication → Defensive demand; overseas leakage is a minor high-end risk.
Competes with Siloam, Hermina and others for patients and doctors.
Implication → Pressures growth, but the premium/private-pay focus differentiates and protects margins.
High and unusually clean, provided you pick the right baseline. Cash backs the profit every year (operating cash flow 1.13× to 1.70× net income) and that surplus has an honest source: depreciation on hospital buildings and equipment, which climbed from 4.4% to 6.1% of revenue as new capacity opened. The tax line is reassuringly boring, net income is 75% to 81% of pretax profit in all five years, so there is none of the below-the-line noise that distorts an FX-exposed company. No accounting one-offs were found. The real comparability trap here is economic rather than accounting: FY2021 contains COVID-era work at COVID-era intensity, so treating that year as the normal run-rate makes the next two years look like decay when they were a mix reset followed by a build cycle.
| Period | One-off item | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | COVID-era case mix and tariffs inflate the base year: revenue Rp4.35tn, operating margin 37.9%, net margin 28.2%, ROE 23.3%, every one a five-year high. | FY2021 is not a clean run-rate. Any trend measured from it overstates the size of the subsequent decline; measure from FY2022 or FY2023 instead. |
| FY2022 | COVID volumes rolled off after the January 2022 tariff reset, so revenue fell 7.0% to Rp4.05tn even while the group was adding hospital capacity. | Operating margin 37.9% → 32.6% and net income −18.0%. The cause is patient mix, not pricing power or cost control, which is why margins recovered once volume returned. |
Cash conversionSelf-funding by construction. Operating cash flow ran Rp2.09tn, 1.13tn, 1.31tn, 1.73tn, 1.93tn against capex of 13% to 20% of revenue, and free cash flow stayed positive in every year (Rp1.50tn, 0.31tn, 0.76tn, 1.03tn, 0.96tn) including the heaviest building years. FY2022 is the squeeze to notice: capex absorbed 73% of operating cash flow and FCF fell to Rp0.31tn, the visible cost of expanding into a revenue dip. Even then, no debt was raised.
A builder that never borrows. MIKA puts 13% to 20% of revenue back into new hospitals, pays out roughly 43% of earnings as dividends, and still reports essentially no interest-bearing debt (Rp10bn at FY2025 against Rp2.54tn of cash). That combination is only possible because a full hospital is a cash machine sitting on a fixed cost base, and it is why the FY2023 ROE trough of 15.7% should be read as the price of the next leg rather than as damage. Compare it with a harvester such as SIDO: same discipline, opposite choice about where the cash goes.
DeploymentCapex Rp0.59tn, 0.83tn, 0.55tn, 0.70tn, 0.98tn, funded entirely from operating cash flow. The signature of the build is in depreciation: 4.4% of revenue in FY2021 rising to 6.1% in FY2025, fixed cost arriving before the patients do. The signature of the payoff is in the fill: revenue +14.3% (FY2024) and +10.1% (FY2025) with gross margin 48.6% → 53.2%, the new beds filling at a better mix. Dividends were maintained throughout (payout about 43%, DPS Rp43) and retained profit still lifted owners’ equity Rp5.27tn → Rp7.25tn.
Returns trendROE 23.3% → 18.6% → 15.7% → 17.6% → 18.8%, and ROIC 14.1% → 15.8% → 16.9% for the three years the engine can compute it (FY2021 and FY2022 are omitted because no debt figure is available to form invested capital). What makes this return unusually clean: with no borrowings, none of the ROE comes from leverage, so 18.8% is what the asset base itself earns. The path is a build-and-fill curve, not a decline, returns fell while capacity was added ahead of demand and rose again as utilisation caught up.
A new hospital adds fixed cost before it adds patients. FY2023 is the demonstrated cost: operating margin 28.3% against 37.9% two years earlier, with depreciation up from 4.4% to 6.0% of revenue. Every future build repeats the pattern, so a margin dip during an expansion phase is expected rather than alarming, what would be alarming is a dip that does not recover.
The network sits in Greater Jakarta and Surabaya, so patient demand, competitor openings and specialist supply are all driven by the same few affluent catchments. It concentrates the quality of the earnings and the risk in the same place.
MIKA’s reliance on BPJS national insurance is deliberately low, but January 2022 proved a tariff decision can still move the top line (revenue −7.0% that year). Regulated pricing is a live variable even for a private-pay operator.
No interest-bearing debt worth the name (Rp10bn at FY2025), net cash Rp2.54tn, interest cover 78× to 135×, current ratio 4.19 to 4.97. There is no solvency or refinancing question to answer here.
Operating cash flow exceeded net income in all five years and the pretax-to-net retention is stable at 75% to 81%. No accounting one-offs were found, the two comparability items are economic (the COVID base and the build cycle) and both are disclosed above.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
A USD 11.6B market structurally undersupplied at 1.4 beds/1,000 people: BPJS’ 270M members fill mass-market hospitals while a premium tier earns 25%+ EBITDA. Fragmented and ripe for consolidation.