Equal
…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.80x | 0.85x | 0.85x | 0.95x | 1.01x |
| Interest burden | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.98x | 0.97x | 0.93x |
| Operating margindriver | 34.0% | 35.0% | 18.9% | 12.9% | 7.3% |
| Asset turnover | 0.81x | 0.94x | 0.99x | 1.02x | 0.97x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.49x | 1.57x | 1.80x | 1.85x | 1.94x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 32.6% | 43.5% | 28.3% | 22.5% | 13.0% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 33.0% | 43.9% | 28.8% | 23.3% | 13.8% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 2.43x | 2.28x | 1.52x | 1.27x | 1.12x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 2.27x | 1.92x | 0.97x | 0.87x | 0.74x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.59x | 0.66x | 0.42x | 0.35x | 0.36x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 11 T | Rp 14 T | Rp 5.2 T | Rp 3.3 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.04x | 0.05x | 0.06x | 0.10x | 0.17x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.49x | 0.57x | 0.80x | 0.85x | 0.94x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.03x | 0.03x | 0.03x | 0.05x | 0.09x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | -Rp 3.3 T | -Rp 5.7 T | -Rp 2.8 T | -Rp 1.9 T | -Rp 665 M |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 89.65x | 106.34x | 62.66x | 31.73x | 14.01x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.49x | 1.57x | 1.80x | 1.85x | 1.94x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 47.1% | 42.6% | 25.0% | 19.9% | 16.0% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 34.0% | 35.0% | 18.9% | 12.9% | 7.3% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 27.0% | 29.5% | 15.9% | 11.9% | 6.9% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 11 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 8.6 T | Rp 6.6 T | Rp 4.4 T |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 36.8% | 37.5% | 22.3% | 15.5% | 10.3% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 21.9% | 27.7% | 15.8% | 12.2% | 6.7% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 32.9% | 43.8% | 28.5% | 22.7% | 13.0% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 0.80x | 0.85x | 0.85x | 0.95x | 1.01x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.99x | 0.99x | 0.98x | 0.97x | 0.93x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 33.0% | 43.9% | 28.8% | 23.3% | 13.8% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.81x | 0.94x | 0.99x | 1.02x | 0.97x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 12.82x | 6.38x | 5.25x | 7.04x | 7.34x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 9.44x | 12.15x | 9.98x | 8.45x | 10.79x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 12.18x | 12.64x | 13.87x | 11.74x | 9.89x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 28.5 days | 57.2 days | 69.5 days | 51.9 days | 49.7 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 38.7 days | 30.0 days | 36.6 days | 43.2 days | 33.8 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 30.0 days | 28.9 days | 26.3 days | 31.1 days | 36.9 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 37.2 days | 58.4 days | 79.8 days | 64.0 days | 46.7 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 9.8 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 2.8 T |
Price Rp 2,321 · market cap Rp 27 T
| Multiple | PTBA | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.12x | 16.25x(15/16) | -44% |
| P/B | 1.19x | 1.68x | -29% |
| P/S | 0.63x | 1.92x | -67% |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.94x | 10.31x | -42% |
| EV/EBIT | 8.39x | 14.25x | -41% |
| EV/Sales | 0.61x | 2.27x | -73% |
| FCF Yield | 10.32% | 0.01% | +97,859% |
| Dividend Yield | 14.31% | 5.27%(11/16) | +171% |
EV = mkt cap Rp 27 T + debt Rp 3.9 T − cash Rp 4.5 T + minority interest Rp 133 M = Rp 26 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 3.5%/yr FCF growth (0.6% at 12.0% to 6.2% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -27.3% FCF · 9.9% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
Cyclical normalization: Commodity/cyclical name: the trailing years are a sample drawn from the price cycle, not a trend. Defaults are therefore normalized, using the full-window mean margin with no cycle-position growth extrapolation. That normalized margin is itself the embedded commodity-price assumption.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.96 → 1.08 | Metals & Mining (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.14 |
| Cost of equity | 14.47% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 5.77% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 14.8% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 13.27% | 87% E × CoE + 13% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 2.5% | terminal growth from year 1, cyclical normalization: the delivered 4-yr CAGR (9.9%) reflects cycle position, not a trend |
| EBIT margin | 21.6% | full-cycle mean EBIT margin, FY2021–FY2025 (cyclical normalization: this margin is the embedded commodity-price assumption) |
| D&A / revenue | 3.0% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 4.5% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 3.0% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | -6.2% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 44 T | Rp 45 T | Rp 46 T | Rp 47 T | Rp 48 T | Rp 49 T |
| EBIT | Rp 9.5 T | Rp 9.7 T | Rp 9.9 T | Rp 10 T | Rp 10 T | Rp 11 T |
| NOPAT | Rp 8.1 T | Rp 8.3 T | Rp 8.5 T | Rp 8.7 T | Rp 8.9 T | Rp 9.1 T |
| + D&A | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| − Capex | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.0 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.2 T | Rp 1.5 T |
| − ΔNWC | -Rp 66 M | -Rp 68 M | -Rp 70 M | -Rp 71 M | -Rp 73 M | -Rp 75 M |
| FCFF | Rp 7.5 T | Rp 7.6 T | Rp 7.8 T | Rp 8.0 T | Rp 8.2 T | Rp 9.2 T |
| PV | Rp 6.6 T | Rp 6.0 T | Rp 5.4 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 46 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 27 T + PV(TV) Rp 46 T = Rp 73 T · TV 63% of EV · − net debt -Rp 665 M − minority Rp 133 M
Model output: Rp 6,390/share (+175% vs price Rp 2,321)· exit-multiple check (10.3x): Rp 8,124
Under these assumptions the model lands 175% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 12.3% | 13.3% | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 6,739 | 6,131 | 5,623 |
| 2.5% | 7,056 | 6,390 | 5,838 |
| 3.0% | 7,406 | 6,674 | 6,073 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 29 T | Rp 43 T | Rp 38 T | Rp 43 T | Rp 43 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 15 T | Rp 24 T | Rp 29 T | Rp 34 T | Rp 36 T |
| Gross Profit | Rp 14 T | Rp 18 T | Rp 9.6 T | Rp 8.5 T | Rp 6.8 T |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 10.0 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 7.3 T | Rp 5.5 T | Rp 3.1 T |
| Interest Expense | Rp 111 M | Rp 140 M | Rp 116 M | Rp 174 M | Rp 223 M |
| Net Income | Rp 7.9 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 6.1 T | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 2.9 T |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | Rp 7.9 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 6.1 T | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 2.9 T |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 814 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.3 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 4.4 T | Rp 7.0 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.1 T | Rp 4.5 T |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 3.5 T | Rp 3.9 T | Rp 5.1 T | Rp 4.0 T |
| Inventory | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 3.8 T | Rp 5.5 T | Rp 4.9 T | Rp 4.9 T |
| Current Assets | Rp 18 T | Rp 24 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 15 T | Rp 14 T |
| Total Assets | Rp 36 T | Rp 45 T | Rp 39 T | Rp 42 T | Rp 44 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 2.1 T | Rp 2.9 T | Rp 3.6 T |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 7.5 T | Rp 11 T | Rp 10.0 T | Rp 12 T | Rp 13 T |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 12 T | Rp 16 T | Rp 17 T | Rp 19 T | Rp 21 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.4 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 3.9 T |
| Total Equity | Rp 24 T | Rp 29 T | Rp 22 T | Rp 23 T | Rp 23 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 24 T | Rp 29 T | Rp 21 T | Rp 23 T | Rp 22 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 11 T | Rp 13 T | Rp 3.1 T | Rp 5.0 T | Rp 6.3 T |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 949 M | Rp 889 M | Rp 937 M | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 3.5 T |
PTBA gross margin: 47.1 % (2021) → 42.6 % (2022) → 25.0 % (2023) → 19.9 % (2024) → 16.0 % (2025). OPM: 34.0 % → 35.0 % → 18.9 % → 12.9 % → 7.3 %. Net margin: 27.0 % → 29.5 % → 15.9 % → 11.9 % → 6.9 %. ROE: 32.9 % → 43.8 % → 28.5 % → 22.7 % → 13.0 %. ROIC: 33.0 % → 43.9 % → 28.8 % → 23.3 % → 14.0 %. D/E near-zero throughout: 0.04 (2021) → 0.17 (2025). FCF: IDR 9.8 T (2021) → IDR 11.6 T (2022, supercycle peak) → IDR 2.2 T (2023) → IDR 3.8 T (2024) → IDR 2.8 T (2025). The 2021–2022 coal supercycle (ICI >USD 200/T) drove extreme returns; normalisation to $60–80/T has compressed OPM to 7.3 %. Net-cash balance sheet + positive FCF supports 70–100 % dividend payout ratio historically.
Coal deposit is self-owned (IUPK). Mining equipment (UNTR/Komatsu, Trakindo/CAT) at market rates: large order volume gives some leverage. KBRP rail: JV with KAI (captive, no third-party dependency). Diesel: AKRA/Pertamina industrial supply at market rates. Self-owned Tarahan port eliminates port operator dependency.
Implication → Self-owned ore + captive rail + captive port = lowest-input-risk coal operation in South Sumatra. Structural cost advantage enables positive FCF even at normalised $65–75/T coal.
Export buyers (Indian utilities, Chinese mills, Korean/Japanese power companies) can switch to Kalimantan, Australian, or South African coal. ICI 4,200 kcal/kg has transparent global pricing. PLN (DMO, ~40 % volume) is a captive buyer at USD 70/T cap: supportive when ICI spot <$70, constraining when ICI >$70 (as in 2022, when ICI >$200 while cap was $65).
Implication → High buyer power + DMO cap = PTBA cannot capture full upside in coal supercycles. The DMO suppressed FY2022 earnings despite record market prices. At normalised ICI $65–75/T, OPM ~7–15 %.
Tanjung Enim is a national strategic asset: no new competing IUP adjacent to PTBA concession. New coal mine requires PKP2B/IUPK government grant (politically restricted), large capex, and 10+ year lead time. KBRP dedicated rail (240 km, non-replicable) is the logistics moat for South Sumatra coal.
Implication → No supply competition threat: reserves and logistics are secure for 30+ year mine life. The strategic risk is demand destruction (energy transition) not supply competition.
Thermal coal's existential substitute: renewables (solar, wind) + LNG + nuclear for power generation. IEA Net Zero implies coal power phasing out globally by 2035–2050. Indonesia JETP (Just Energy Transition Partnership, USD 20 B) commits to early coal retirement. PLN new coal plant additions effectively stopped post-2023 policy. PTBA's 30+ year reserve life exceeds plausible coal demand window under aggressive energy transition. Coal-to-methanol/DME is PTBA's hedge: chemical feedstock use of coal vs. combustion fuel.
Implication → Energy transition is PTBA's decade-defining structural risk. Methanol/DME downstream is the strategic pivot from energy-coal to chemistry-coal. Near-term (2025–2030), Asia coal demand (India + SE Asia) provides support; terminal value of coal reserves is discounted.
PTBA ICI 4,200 kcal/kg competes with ADRO (5,200 kcal/kg HCV), ITMG, BYAN (6,900 kcal/kg premium), HRUM, hundreds of unlisted Kalimantan producers. Different caloric value = partially different market segments (PTBA: developing-nation plants; ADRO/BYAN: high-efficiency plants). Export competition is global: Australia (Newcastle), South Africa (RBCT), Russia (Pacific) all compete for Asian power utility contracts.
Implication → 4,200 kcal/kg limits premium-market access but Indian/SE Asian developing-nation demand is large and growing: the relevant addressable market for PTBA is substantial through 2030.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia controls >60 % of global nickel supply and is the world's largest thermal-coal exporter; hilirisasi mandates in-country ore processing, reshaping value chains from raw ore to battery-grade products.