Equal
…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | 1.11x | 1.01x | 0.70x | 0.65x | 0.87x |
| Interest burden | 0.52x | 0.81x | 0.81x | 0.81x | 0.76x |
| Operating margindriver | 4.0% | 8.5% | 22.3% | 19.1% | 15.4% |
| Asset turnover | 0.40x | 0.49x | 0.62x | 0.77x | 0.56x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 1.96x | 1.96x | 2.13x | 1.93x | 1.87x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | 1.8% | 6.6% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 2.0% | 5.0% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 11.2% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 3.30x | 2.17x | 1.43x | 1.55x | 1.44x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 3.27x | 2.14x | 1.42x | 1.54x | 1.43x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 1.88x | 1.12x | 0.62x | 0.76x | 0.95x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | $ 45 M | $ 32 M | $ 24 M | $ 32 M | $ 42 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 0.86x | 0.84x | 0.88x | 0.67x | 0.60x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 0.96x | 0.96x | 1.13x | 0.93x | 0.87x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.44x | 0.43x | 0.42x | 0.35x | 0.32x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | $ 71 M | $ 82 M | $ 102 M | $ 71 M | $ 63 M |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 2.07x | 5.13x | 5.23x | 5.17x | 4.17x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 1.96x | 1.96x | 2.13x | 1.93x | 1.87x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 15.6% | 19.7% | 32.3% | 27.2% | 27.0% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 4.0% | 8.5% | 22.3% | 19.1% | 15.4% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | 2.3% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | $ 12 M | $ 20 M | $ 59 M | $ 64 M | $ 58 M |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 11.8% | 15.7% | 29.1% | 25.3% | 21.6% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | 0.9% | 3.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | 2.2% | 8.1% | 19.8% | 17.6% | 12.8% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | 1.11x | 1.01x | 0.70x | 0.65x | 0.87x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.52x | 0.81x | 0.81x | 0.81x | 0.76x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 2.0% | 5.0% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 11.2% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.40x | 0.49x | 0.62x | 0.77x | 0.56x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 168.05x | 135.00x | 198.64x | 302.49x | 167.93x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 8.00x | 7.76x | 6.67x | 7.59x | 8.09x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 10.66x | 9.42x | 7.21x | 10.00x | 7.40x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 2.2 days | 2.7 days | 1.8 days | 1.2 days | 2.2 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 45.7 days | 47.1 days | 54.7 days | 48.1 days | 45.1 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 34.2 days | 38.8 days | 50.6 days | 36.5 days | 49.3 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 13.6 days | 11.0 days | 5.9 days | 12.8 days | -2.0 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | -$ 73 M | -$ 9.7 M | -$ 18 M | $ 37 M | $ 6.9 M |
Price Rp 890 · market cap Rp 19 T ($ 1.0 B at the cited rate; statements are filed in USD)
| Multiple | RAJA | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 38.24x | 17.40x | +120% |
| P/B | 4.89x | 1.15x | +327% |
| P/S | 3.91x | 3.91x | 0% |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.93x | 7.19x | +177% |
| EV/EBIT | 27.85x | 11.64x | +139% |
| EV/Sales | 4.30x | 4.30x | 0% |
| FCF Yield | 0.66% | 9.78% | -93% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.12% | 4.16% | -73% |
EV = mkt cap $ 1.0 B + debt $ 154 M − cash $ 91 M + minority interest $ 43 M = $ 1.1 B
At today’s price, the market is paying for 40.6%/yr FCF growth (35.3% at 9.3% to 45.4% at 13.3% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: FCF n/m (sign flip) · 28.4% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 9.3–13.3% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 4.66% | US 10Y Treasury, 10 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.56 → 0.62 | Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.15 |
| Cost of equity | 8.79% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 6.43% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 30.3% | median effective rate, FY2021–FY2025 (pretax ≈ EBIT − interest) |
| WACC | 8.24% | 87% E × CoE + 13% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | 28.4% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 28.4%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 18.9% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 6.4% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 17.2% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 6.4% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | 5.7% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 28.4% | 21.9% | 15.4% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | $ 342 M | $ 417 M | $ 482 M | $ 525 M | $ 538 M | $ 552 M |
| EBIT | $ 65 M | $ 79 M | $ 91 M | $ 99 M | $ 102 M | $ 105 M |
| NOPAT | $ 45 M | $ 55 M | $ 64 M | $ 69 M | $ 71 M | $ 73 M |
| + D&A | $ 22 M | $ 27 M | $ 31 M | $ 33 M | $ 34 M | $ 35 M |
| − Capex | $ 59 M | $ 72 M | $ 83 M | $ 91 M | $ 93 M | $ 35 M |
| − ΔNWC | $ 4.3 M | $ 4.3 M | $ 3.7 M | $ 2.5 M | $ 752 K | $ 771 K |
| FCFF | $ 3.6 M | $ 5.4 M | $ 7.5 M | $ 9.7 M | $ 12 M | $ 72 M |
| PV | $ 3.3 M | $ 4.6 M | $ 5.9 M | $ 7.1 M | $ 7.9 M | $ 845 M |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) $ 29 M + PV(TV) $ 845 M = $ 874 M · TV 97% of EV · − net debt $ 63 M − minority $ 43 M
Model output: Rp 656/share (-26% vs price Rp 890)· exit-multiple check (7.2x): Rp 498
Under these assumptions the model lands 26% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 752 | 589 | 473 |
| 2.5% | 851 | 656 | 521 |
| 3.0% | 974 | 737 | 577 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $ 98 M | $ 127 M | $ 204 M | $ 254 M | $ 267 M |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $ 83 M | $ 102 M | $ 138 M | $ 185 M | $ 195 M |
| Gross Profit | $ 15 M | $ 25 M | $ 66 M | $ 69 M | $ 72 M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $ 3.9 M | $ 11 M | $ 45 M | $ 49 M | $ 41 M |
| Interest Expense | $ 1.9 M | $ 2.1 M | $ 8.7 M | $ 9.4 M | $ 9.9 M |
| Net Income | $ 2.3 M | $ 8.8 M | $ 26 M | $ 26 M | $ 27 M |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | $ 2.3 M | $ 8.8 M | $ 26 M | $ 26 M | $ 27 M |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $ 7.7 M | $ 9.0 M | $ 14 M | $ 16 M | $ 16 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $ 37 M | $ 30 M | $ 35 M | $ 44 M | $ 91 M |
| Accounts Receivable | $ 12 M | $ 16 M | $ 31 M | $ 34 M | $ 33 M |
| Inventory | $ 493 K | $ 753 K | $ 694 K | $ 613 K | $ 1.2 M |
| Current Assets | $ 65 M | $ 59 M | $ 81 M | $ 91 M | $ 138 M |
| Total Assets | $ 246 M | $ 261 M | $ 329 M | $ 331 M | $ 478 M |
| Accounts Payable | $ 7.8 M | $ 11 M | $ 19 M | $ 19 M | $ 26 M |
| Current Liabilities | $ 20 M | $ 27 M | $ 56 M | $ 58 M | $ 95 M |
| Total Liabilities | $ 120 M | $ 127 M | $ 174 M | $ 159 M | $ 222 M |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | $ 108 M | $ 112 M | $ 136 M | $ 115 M | $ 154 M |
| Total Equity | $ 125 M | $ 133 M | $ 155 M | $ 172 M | $ 256 M |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | $ 102 M | $ 109 M | $ 130 M | $ 145 M | $ 213 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$ 3.5 M | $ 12 M | $ 44 M | $ 48 M | $ 53 M |
| Capital Expenditure | $ 70 M | $ 21 M | $ 61 M | $ 11 M | $ 46 M |
Read past the FY2025 headline. Revenue grew 4.8% to US$266.7M and net income grew 6.6% to US$27.2M, but EBIT fell 15.2% (US$48.6M→US$41.2M) and pretax income fell ~20.1%; the entire net-income gain came from the effective tax rate dropping to 13.0% (from 34.8% in FY2024, itself part of a wildly volatile 5-year pattern that has never settled near Indonesia’s 22% statutory rate). Set that aside and the real story is a genuine 2021–23 turnaround (operating margin 4.0%→22.3%, ROE 2.2%→19.8%, funded by ~US$100.5m of cumulative negative free cash flow) that peaked in FY2024 (ROIC 13.0%) and has been fading since (operating margin 19.1%→15.4%, ROIC 13.0%→11.2%) even as the balance sheet keeps growing: total assets +44.1% in FY2025 alone, financed mostly by equity and non-controlling interest (+46.8% / +60.3%) rather than debt (+33.2%), so D/E actually fell to a 5-year low (0.60×) while ROE was diluted (17.6%→12.8%). The FY2025 story is a company getting bigger and safer faster than it is getting more profitable. What would prove the bull case wrong: the effective tax rate reverting toward its FY2023–24 30–35% band while operating margin keeps sliding; that would strip out FY2025’s only source of growth. What would prove the bear case wrong: operating margin recovering back above ~19% in FY2026 as the Sengkang compressor and Hafar integration costs season, proving FY2025’s compression was transitional, not structural.
Sources natural gas from upstream producers and Pertamina-linked infrastructure; moves it through RAJA’s own transmission and compression assets, including the Sengkang compressor station brought online in 2025.
EconomicsRAJA is a price-taker on input gas cost; the Infrastructure segment is the physical asset base behind that revenue line.
Sells gas and LPG to commercial, industrial and household end-users via distribution networks and LPG terminal facilities.
EconomicsThe primary revenue line (Natural Gas Distribution, >50% of FY2025 revenue): margin is the spread between procurement cost and the tariff charged downstream.
The Other segment: clean-water treatment, power generation, mining consultation, port/container handling, building rental, construction.
EconomicsA real but secondary revenue tail, not broken out at the same granularity as the two core segments.
Via subsidiaries REC and PJUC, RAJA holds a stake in the Cepu Block: one of Indonesia’s largest producing oil fields. REC’s own vehicle, RATU, completed a separate IDX listing in early 2026.
EconomicsAn uncommon resource-side hedge for a pure distributor; its contribution is not broken out separately in RAJA’s own consolidated numbers.
August 2025: acquired the Hafar Group (PT Hafar Daya Konstruksi + PT Hafar Daya Samudera); a 49% RAJA / 51% Petrosea(PTRO)-EPC joint venture.
EconomicsCapex quadrupled YoY (US$45.9M FY2025 vs US$11.2M FY2024) to fund this and related buildout; first-year, non-controlling (49%) contribution to consolidated results.
Cost structureGas procurement cost is the dominant variable cost: a spread business, only partly a pass-through. Gross margin held roughly flat (27.2%→27.0%, FY2024–25), but EBITDA fell (US$64.3M→US$57.6M, −10.4%; margin 25.3%→21.6%) and operating margin compressed further (19.1%→15.4%): the compression shows up below the gross-profit line, in operating expenses growing faster than revenue (plausibly Sengkang ramp-up and Hafar integration costs, though the seeded lines don’t break out opex sub-lines to confirm the exact driver).
Cash cycleUnusually capital-light for an infrastructure-adjacent name: FY2025’s cash conversion cycle is actually negative (−2.0 days; payables days, 49.3, exceed inventory + receivables days combined, 47.3); suppliers effectively finance the distribution cycle. Capex, not working capital, is what has periodically driven cash out (FY2021–23, and again in FY2025’s Hafar-linked re-acceleration).
Unit economicsRAJA does not publicly disclose a per-unit ($/mmbtu or per-volume) spread at the granularity PGAS or upstream E&P names do; the closest observable signal is the segment-level split between Natural Gas Distribution and Infrastructure, which the company has not broken out at that granularity either: stated here as a genuine disclosure gap, not estimated.
Gas is procured from a concentrated set of upstream producers and Pertamina-linked infrastructure; RAJA does not control its own gas source the way an E&P name does.
Implication → RAJA is a price-taker on input cost: margin is defended on the distribution/tariff side, not the procurement side.
Commercial and industrial gas buyers have some switching options (alternative fuels, direct deals with PGAS’s larger network); RAJA’s terminal and distribution relationships provide partial lock-in.
Implication → Gross margin has held roughly flat (27.2%→27.0%, FY2024–25) even as operating margin compressed: buyer pricing pressure is not the story; cost absorption below the gross-profit line is.
Gas-distribution licensing plus pipeline/terminal/compression capex are real barriers, but they are regional and scalable: RAJA itself is proof a private entrant can build meaningful share without PGAS’s state backing.
Implication → The barrier protects RAJA’s existing regional footprint more than it blocks new competitors from contesting the next region.
LPG, diesel and other alternative fuels compete for smaller industrial users, and grid electrification substitutes for some end-uses; piped natural gas stays cost-advantaged for many of the industrial customers RAJA serves.
Implication → Substitution risk is real at the margin but has not shown up in the numbers yet: Natural Gas Distribution remains the primary revenue line.
PGAS operates 92% of national gas pipeline infrastructure and dominates at scale; RAJA and other private distributors compete for the remainder. The 2025 Hafar move adds a second, more competitive-bid-driven rivalry in offshore O&G EPCI: the same arena PTRO already operates in.
Implication → RAJA competes for share PGAS’s national scale doesn’t fully serve, and now also bids against established EPCI contractors on a business it entered only in FY2025.
FY2025’s reported profit growth is not operating-driven. EBIT fell 15.2% (US$48.6M→US$41.2M) and pretax income fell ~20.1%, yet net income rose 6.6% because the effective tax rate fell to 13.0% from 34.8%: a rate that has been unusually volatile across the whole window (a net tax BENEFIT in FY2021–22, 30.3% in FY2023, 34.8% in FY2024, 13.0% in FY2025), never settling near Indonesia’s 22% statutory corporate rate. The public figures don’t provide a tax-note breakdown, so the precise mechanism (loss-carryforward utilization, a differently-taxed consolidated or associate entity, a genuine incentive) isn’t confirmed: a plausible partial explanation is a growing, net-of-tax contribution from equity-accounted associates (RAJA’s Cepu Block interest is held via REC/PJUC) diluting the blended consolidated rate, but this is a hypothesis, not a confirmed driver. Either way: the headline net-income growth is not a read on FY2025 operating performance.
Checked: no material one-offs found in the reviewed window.
Cash conversionAccrual quality is sound, OCF (US$52.8M) exceeds net income (US$27.2M) by ~1.9×, but conversion to FREE cash is much thinner (US$6.9M) once the re-accelerated Hafar-linked capex (US$45.9M) is netted out. The cash cycle itself is capital-light (CCC −2.0 days), so the gap is investment-driven, not a working-capital or receivables-quality concern.
A builder that changed its funding mix mid-stream. The FY2021–23 turnaround (cumulative FCF ≈ −US$100.5M) was funded through rising leverage (D/E 0.86×→0.88×); FY2025’s renewed buildout (capex quadrupled to US$45.9M) instead coincided with D/E FALLING to a 5-year low (0.60×), because parent equity (+46.8%) and non-controlling interest (+60.3%, now 16.7% of total equity: consistent with consolidating the 49%-owned Hafar JV) grew faster than the US$38.2M (+33.2%) rise in debt. ROE fell 17.6%→12.8% as a direct consequence: the returns of a bigger, better-capitalized balance sheet haven’t caught up to its size yet.
DeploymentFY2025 capex US$45.9M (vs US$11.2M FY2024) funded the Hafar acquisition and related buildout: roughly 26% from new debt (+US$38.2M), the rest from retained earnings, new parent equity and non-controlling capital (equityOwners +US$68.0M, NCI +US$16.1M). A materially more equity-led mix than either RAJA’s own FY2021–23 build or fellow-roster company PTRO’s debt-funded fleet expansion in the very same offshore O&G EPCI space (via the same Hafar entities).
Returns trendROIC 2.0%→5.0%→12.4%(FY2023)→13.0%(FY2024 peak)→11.2%(FY2025). Even at its FY2025 level, ROIC still plausibly clears a USD cost of capital, unlike PTRO’s build, which ran below its own WACC through FY2021–24, but the trend is now pointed down for the first time in the window; whether the Hafar/Infrastructure re-investment resumes the FY2021–24 climb or continues fading is the open question. (See Valuation for RAJA’s own CAPM-derived WACC.)
FY2025’s entire reported net-income growth (+6.6%) is a below-the-line tax effect: EBIT fell 15.2% and pretax income fell ~20.1%, while the effective tax rate dropped to 13.0% from 34.8%; itself part of a 5-year pattern that has swung from a net tax benefit to 35% and never settled near the 22% statutory rate. Anyone reading only the headline profit number would miss a genuine double-digit operating decline.
Controlling shareholder Happy Hapsoro (28.2% direct, plus control via PT Sentosa Bersama Mitra 35.2% and PT Basis Utama Prima 11.9%) is married to Puan Maharani, Speaker of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR-RI) and a senior PDI-P figure: real political-cycle exposure for a licensing-dependent gas distributor, cutting both ways (access vs. reputational/regulatory risk on any political shift). A governance-disclosure matter, not a solvency one.
The Hafar offshore O&G EPCI line (first-year contributor to FY2025 results) is 49%-owned, RAJA doesn’t control it, and the other 51% sits with fellow-roster company PTRO’s Petrosea EPC arm. Execution, disclosure quality and governance of a JV RAJA doesn’t control is a real dependency to track as it scales.
NCI rose from US$26.7M to US$42.8M (+60.3%) in FY2025, now 16.7% of total equity (up from 15.5%): consistent with consolidating the Hafar JV, a real and disclosed shift, not an outsized or concerning share by itself.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's energy sector spans three genuinely different value chains under one industry here: upstream oil & gas E&P (MEDC; 163 kboe/d production, 528 MMboe reserves, plus real diversification into clean-energy power and copper/gold mining), geothermal power generation (BREN and PGEO together; Indonesia ranks #2 in the world for installed geothermal capacity, 2,742 MW, behind only the US, with a national target of 5.2 GW by 2034), and gas transmission/distribution (PGAS, 92% of domestic gas infrastructure, a Pertamina subholding, joined by RAJA, a far smaller private gas trader/distributor in the same subsegment). All five report in USD: including PGAS and RAJA, whose USD filings (PGAS total assets ~USD 6.3 B; RAJA ~USD 0.5 B) are frequently re-quoted in Rupiah-equivalent terms by Indonesian financial media, a display artifact worth knowing about rather than a sign of dual functional currencies.