Equal · Financial Report

Summarecon Agung

SMRA/FY2021–FY2025/Educational Analysis/IDR/Data source · 2026-07-06

ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Tax burden	0.57x	0.70x	0.65x	0.50x	0.53x
Interest burdendriver	0.37x	0.52x	0.62x	0.73x	0.57x
Operating margin	28.0%	29.9%	28.7%	35.5%	28.7%
Asset turnover	0.21x	0.20x	0.21x	0.32x	0.23x
Leverage (equity mult.)	2.32x	2.42x	2.53x	2.42x	2.40x
= Return on Equity (consolidated)	2.9%	5.3%	6.2%	9.9%	4.8%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	5.7%	8.2%	7.6%	8.9%	5.2%

Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.

Liquidity

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities)	1.87x	1.50x	1.31x	1.20x	1.08x
Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities)	0.53x	0.45x	0.39x	0.36x	0.32x
Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities)	0.40x	0.33x	0.28x	0.26x	0.23x
Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities)	Rp 6.1 T	Rp 4.8 T	Rp 3.7 T	Rp 2.5 T	Rp 1.1 T

Leverage & Solvency

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity)	0.63x	0.50x	0.59x	0.76x	0.83x
Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity)	1.32x	1.42x	1.53x	1.42x	1.40x
Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets)	0.27x	0.21x	0.23x	0.31x	0.35x
Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash)	Rp 4.3 T	Rp 2.8 T	Rp 3.9 T	Rp 7.3 T	Rp 10.0 T
Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense)	1.58x	2.10x	2.63x	3.74x	2.33x
Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity)	2.32x	2.42x	2.53x	2.42x	2.40x

Profitability

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue)	46.3%	52.2%	50.2%	51.1%	49.2%
Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue)	28.0%	29.9%	28.7%	35.5%	28.7%
Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue)	5.8%	10.9%	11.5%	12.9%	8.7%
EBITDA(EBIT + D&A)	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 2.0 T	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 4.1 T	Rp 2.9 T
EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue)	32.7%	34.4%	32.7%	38.7%	32.8%
Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets)	1.2%	2.2%	2.5%	4.1%	2.0%
Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners))	3.7%	6.8%	7.8%	12.4%	6.6%
Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax)	0.57x	0.70x	0.65x	0.50x	0.53x
Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT)	0.37x	0.52x	0.62x	0.73x	0.57x
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	5.7%	8.2%	7.6%	8.9%	5.2%

Operations & Efficiency

Turnover	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets)	0.21x	0.20x	0.21x	0.32x	0.23x
Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory)	0.32x	0.27x	0.30x	0.48x	0.39x
Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables)	22.35x	19.46x	28.23x	40.86x	41.86x
Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables)	42.18x	31.28x	36.26x	68.23x	65.61x

Conversion Period	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS)	1,143.1 days	1,337.3 days	1,204.0 days	757.1 days	924.2 days
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue)	16.3 days	18.8 days	12.9 days	8.9 days	8.7 days
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS)	8.7 days	11.7 days	10.1 days	5.3 days	5.6 days
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO)	1,150.8 days	1,344.4 days	1,206.8 days	760.7 days	927.4 days

Cash Flow

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex)	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 2.6 T	Rp 1.3 T	Rp 424 M	Rp 815 M

Valuation

price as-of 2026-07-31fundamentals: FY2025

Price Rp 326 · market cap Rp 5.4 T

Multiple	SMRA	Peer median	vs median
P/E	7.02x	6.24x	+12%
P/B	0.46x	0.45x	+2%
P/S	0.61x	0.89x	-31%
EV/EBITDA	6.84x	6.25x	+9%
EV/EBIT	7.82x	7.32x	+7%
EV/Sales	2.24x	2.34x	-4%
FCF Yield	15.15%	-1.14%	-1,424%
Dividend Yield	2.76%	3.47%(4/6)	-20%

EV = mkt cap Rp 5.4 T + debt Rp 13 T − cash Rp 3.4 T + minority interest Rp 4.4 T = Rp 20 T

What the price implies

At today’s price, the market is paying for 17.6%/yr FCF growth (14.1% at 12.0% to 20.9% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -23.7% FCF · 12.0% revenue.

Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.

Forward DCF (glass-box)

This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.

Assumption	Value	Basis
Rf (risk-free)	7.26%	Indonesia 10Y government bond, re-verified 31 Jul 2026
ERP (Rm − Rf)	6.69%	Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%)
β	0.48 → 1.25	Real Estate (Development) (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 2.48
Cost of equity	15.64%	Rf + β × ERP
Cost of debt	8.64%	median interest coverage 2.3x (EBIT ÷ interest, FY2021–FY2025) implies a Ba1/BB+ synthetic rating and a 1.38% default spread, over a 7.26% base (Indonesia 10Y 7.26%, already the sovereign rate). Its BOOK rate is 8.1%, which is what past debt actually costs; the gap is legacy or subsidised borrowing, not the rate on new debt. Spread table: A. Damodaran, Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread, January 2026 data update (large non-financial service firms)
Tax rate	35.0%	median effective rate FY2021–FY2025 computed to 43.5%, CLAMPED to 35%: above that ceiling the pretax approximation is carrying minority interests, which are already deducted separately from enterprise value, rather than tax
WACC	8.50%	29% E × CoE + 71% D × Kd × (1 − t)
Revenue growth (yr 1, fading)	12.0%	delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR 12.0%, fading linearly to terminal
EBIT margin	31.0%	mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs
D&A / revenue	3.7%	mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs
Capex / revenue	1.6%	mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years. The terminal year instead FUNDS ITS OWN GROWTH: in stable growth g = reinvestment rate x return on capital, and returns are assumed to converge to the 8.5% cost of capital, so the perpetuity reinvests 29.4% of NOPAT and terminal capex is 8.6% of revenue against depreciation of 3.7%. Both simpler rules are wrong in opposite directions: holding the historical ratio charges a build phase in perpetuity, while setting capex equal to depreciation hands the company 2.5% growth forever for no new capital. Because returns converge to the cost of capital, terminal growth here is value-neutral
ΔNWC / Δrevenue	43.8%	median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP)
Terminal growth	2.5%	BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%)

Growth path

year 1 → fading to terminal over 5 yrs12.0%

EBIT margin31.0%

WACC8.5%

Terminal growth2.5%

Explicit years5

FCFF drivers

FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − capex − ΔNWC

Each default is the company's own historical average, which describes the phase it happened to be in. Switch a driver to Per-year when that phase is ending: a company mid-build does not spend at its peak rate forever, and one in a capex pause does not stay there. The terminal year keeps its own ratios, so a taper you enter here changes the explicit window and leaves the perpetuity coherent.

Capex

% of revenue1.6%

D&A

% of revenue3.7%

ΔNWC

% of the CHANGE in revenue43.8%

Year	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	T∞
Growth	12.0%	9.6%	7.3%	4.9%	2.5%	2.5%
Revenue	Rp 9.8 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 13 T
EBIT	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.6 T	Rp 3.8 T	Rp 3.8 T	Rp 3.9 T
NOPAT	Rp 2.0 T	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 2.3 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 2.5 T	Rp 2.6 T
+ D&A	Rp 366 M	Rp 402 M	Rp 431 M	Rp 452 M	Rp 463 M	Rp 475 M
− Capex	Rp 160 M	Rp 175 M	Rp 188 M	Rp 197 M	Rp 202 M	Rp 1.1 T
− ΔNWC	Rp 462 M	Rp 415 M	Rp 343 M	Rp 247 M	Rp 133 M	Rp 136 M
FCFF	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 2.0 T	Rp 2.2 T	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 2.6 T	Rp 1.8 T
PV	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 1.8 T	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 20 T

Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5 · equity = EV − net debt − minority · per share = equity ÷ shares outstanding

EV = PV(explicit) Rp 8.5 T + PV(TV) Rp 20 T = Rp 29 T · TV 70% of EV · − net debt Rp 10.0 T − minority Rp 4.4 T = equity Rp 14 T ÷ shares outstanding

Model output: Rp 865/share (+165% vs price Rp 326)· exit-multiple check (6.3x): Rp 736

Under these assumptions the model lands 165% above today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for slower growth, a thinner margin, or a higher discount rate than the inputs here assume.

Sensitivity (per share, Rp)

g \ WACC	7.5%	8.5%	9.5%
2.0%	1,050	769	562
2.5%	1,192	865	630
3.0%	1,365	978	709

Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.

Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.

Macro backdropfull backdrop + sensitivity map →

BI Rate 5.75%IDR/USD 18,05810Y government bond yield 7.26%Inflation 3.34%(as-of 2026-07-31)

BI rate ↑(H)GDP/consumption ↑(M)

Income Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	Rp 5.6 T	Rp 5.7 T	Rp 6.7 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 8.8 T
Cost of Goods Sold	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 2.7 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 5.2 T	Rp 4.4 T
Gross Profit	Rp 2.6 T	Rp 3.0 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 5.4 T	Rp 4.3 T
Operating Income (EBIT)	Rp 1.6 T	Rp 1.7 T	Rp 1.9 T	Rp 3.8 T	Rp 2.5 T
Interest Expense	Rp 985 M	Rp 813 M	Rp 728 M	Rp 1.0 T	Rp 1.1 T
Net Income	Rp 324 M	Rp 625 M	Rp 766 M	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 767 M
Net Income Attributable to Owners	Rp 324 M	Rp 625 M	Rp 766 M	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 767 M
Depreciation & Amortization	Rp 264 M	Rp 258 M	Rp 263 M	Rp 333 M	Rp 360 M

Balance Sheet

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Equivalents	Rp 2.8 T	Rp 3.1 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.3 T	Rp 3.4 T
Accounts Receivable	Rp 249 M	Rp 294 M	Rp 236 M	Rp 260 M	Rp 209 M
Inventory	Rp 9.4 T	Rp 10 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 11 T
Current Assets	Rp 13 T	Rp 14 T	Rp 16 T	Rp 15 T	Rp 16 T
Total Assets	Rp 26 T	Rp 28 T	Rp 31 T	Rp 34 T	Rp 38 T
Accounts Payable	Rp 71 M	Rp 87 M	Rp 91 M	Rp 76 M	Rp 68 M
Current Liabilities	Rp 7.0 T	Rp 9.5 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 13 T	Rp 15 T
Total Liabilities	Rp 15 T	Rp 17 T	Rp 19 T	Rp 20 T	Rp 22 T
Total Interest-Bearing Debt	Rp 7.0 T	Rp 5.9 T	Rp 7.2 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 13 T
Total Equity	Rp 11 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 12 T	Rp 14 T	Rp 16 T
Equity Attributable to Owners	Rp 8.7 T	Rp 9.2 T	Rp 9.8 T	Rp 11 T	Rp 12 T

Cash Flow Statement

	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	Rp 2.4 T	Rp 2.7 T	Rp 1.4 T	Rp 571 M	Rp 973 M
Capital Expenditure	Rp 35 M	Rp 44 M	Rp 112 M	Rp 148 M	Rp 158 M

Company Deep Analysis

Reviewed: 2026-07-31

Analyst Verdict

SMRA revenue (T IDR): 5.57 (2021) → 5.72 (2022) → 6.66 (2023) → 10.62 (2024, peak) → 8.77 (2025); lumpy, typical of property developers where development revenue is recognised at unit handover rather than smoothly accrued. Gross margin: 46.3% → 52.2% → 50.2% → 51.1% → 49.2%. OPM: 28.0% → 29.9% → 28.7% → 35.5% (peak) → 28.7%. Net margin: 5.8% → 10.9% → 11.5% → 12.9% (peak) → 8.7%. ROE: 3.7% → 6.8% → 7.8% → 12.4% (peak) → 6.6%. ROIC: 5.7% → 8.2% → 7.6% → 8.9% → 5.2%. D/E: 0.63× → 0.50× → 0.59× → 0.76% → 0.83× (steadily rising after FY2022). FCF (T IDR): +2.41 → +2.61 → +1.29 → +0.42 (low) → +0.82; a clear declining trend despite the FY2024 revenue peak. Net debt (T IDR): 4.27 → 2.77 (low) → 3.91 → 7.27 → 9.95; more than doubled from the FY2022 low, and the single most important trend in this profile. Current ratio: 1.87× → 1.50× → 1.31× → 1.20× → 1.08×; steadily less liquid every year. The dominant story is a widening gap between operating profitability (gross/operating margins stayed healthy and fairly stable, 46–52% and 28–36%) and cash generation: FCF nearly halved from FY2021 to FY2025 while net debt grew ~2.3x, consistent with heavy ongoing investment in recurring-income mall assets and new township land banking outpacing internally generated cash.

Business Model

Established 1975, one of Indonesia’s leading township developers, operating three segments: Property Development (residential houses, apartments, land plots, commercial shoplots sold within townships), Property Investment and Management (recurring-income retail malls; approximately 380,000 sqm of retail space, including 300,000 sqm across Sentra Kelapa Gading and Sentra Gading Serpong, and 80,000 sqm at Sentra Bekasi), and Leisure, Hospitality and Others (golf courses, hotels, resorts, recreation facilities supporting township amenity value). Currently developing 9 active townships: Kelapa Gading, Serpong, Bekasi, Bandung, Emerald Karawang, Mutiara Makassar, Bogor, Crown Gading, and Tangerang.

Segments

Property Development drives the lumpy topline (unit handovers recognised at completion, explaining the FY2024 revenue spike to Rp10.62tn followed by a FY2025 pullback to Rp8.77tn). Property Investment and Management (the ~380,000 sqm mall portfolio) provides steadier recurring income that helps explain why operating margins (28–36%) stayed healthier and more stable than the revenue line. Leisure and Hospitality supports township amenity value rather than driving standalone profitability.

Value Chain & Positioning

Land acquisition/banking → township master-planning and infrastructure → residential/commercial unit construction and sale (Property Development) in parallel with mall construction and leasing (Property Investment) → amenity development (schools, recreation, hospitality) that raises the whole township’s land value. The recurring-income mall assets are increasingly funded by debt, per the rising net debt trend.

Competitive Forces (Porter’s 5)

Supplier powerMedium

How much leverage input/funding providers have over pricing.

Construction materials (cement, steel) and contractors carry normal cost exposure; land itself is the scarcest input, and SMRA’s decades of land banking across 9 townships is a real advantage over newer entrants.

Implication → Land-bank depth supports long-term development capacity, though financing costs on the rising debt load are now a bigger swing factor than land or material costs.

Buyer powerMedium

How much leverage customers have to push prices down.

Named directly alongside CTRA/BSDE as a leading residential-township developer competing for the same mid-upper buyer pool in similar corridors (per this industry’s own competitive framing).

Implication → Buyers have real choice among comparable township developers, which caps pricing power and makes location/amenity differentiation the key lever.

Threat of new entryLow

How easily new competitors can enter the market.

Township-scale development requires decades of land banking, infrastructure investment, and brand trust: SMRA’s 9-township, 50-year history is not replicable quickly.

Implication → New entrants cannot easily compete at the township scale; competition is mainly among the small set of established developers.

Threat of substitutesMedium

Risk that alternative products/services replace demand.

Buyers can choose standalone housing developments, apartments outside integrated townships, or other developers’ townships (CTRA, BSDE).

Implication → The integrated-township value proposition (schools, malls, recreation bundled with housing) is SMRA’s differentiation against simpler substitutes.

Competitive rivalryHigh

Intensity of competition among existing players.

Competes directly with CTRA and BSDE (both existing comps) for the same mid-upper buyer pool in overlapping Jakarta-metro corridors.

Implication → Differentiation runs through location quality, township maturity (established malls/schools vs. greenfield), and brand, not price alone.

Moat / Competitive Edge

Moderate. SMRA’s moat is its decades-long land bank across 9 established townships and the recurring-income mall portfolio (~380,000 sqm) that a new entrant cannot replicate quickly: real, durable advantages. But the moat does not extend to capital discipline: net debt has more than doubled (Rp4.27tn→Rp9.95tn) while FCF has nearly halved, meaning the moat is being maintained and extended through rising leverage rather than internally generated cash; a real and rising risk, not yet a crisis.

Key Drivers & Sensitivities

Unit handover timing (Property Development)
Revenue recognition at handover, not sale, creates the lumpiness seen in the verdict (FY2024 spike to Rp10.62tn, FY2025 pullback to Rp8.77tn): a timing effect, not necessarily a demand signal.
Net debt / leverage build
Net debt grew from Rp2.77tn (FY2022 low) to Rp9.95tn (FY2025), more than 3.5x from the low point, while FCF fell to Rp0.42–0.82tn in the same window. This is the single most important trend to watch going forward.
Recurring mall income
The ~380,000 sqm mall portfolio provides steadier income that helps explain why operating margins (28–36%) held up better than the lumpy revenue line: a stabilising counterweight to the Property Development cycle.
Property-sector demand / interest rates
Mortgage rates and broader property-market sentiment directly affect Property Development sales pace, and (given rising leverage) SMRA’s own financing costs.
Liquidity trend
Current ratio fell every single year of the window (1.87×→1.08×): a steady, monotonic decline that deserves attention alongside the net-debt build, even though it has not yet crossed below 1×.

Linkages

Tied to Indonesian property-market demand, mortgage/interest-rate conditions (both for buyers and for SMRA’s own rising debt load), middle-upper-class income growth, and retail/mall foot traffic (for the recurring-income segment). A capital-intensive, leverage-sensitive business.

Recent Developments

FY2024 was the peak on every profit measure and FY2025 gave it back. Revenue Rp10.62tn, operating margin 35.5%, net margin 12.9% and ROE 12.4% were all five-year highs; FY2025 returned Rp8.77tn, 28.7%, 8.7% and 6.6%, with net income down 44.2%. The balance sheet moved one way throughout: net debt rose from Rp2.77tn in FY2022 to Rp9.95tn, debt to equity from 0.50× to 0.83×, and the current ratio fell in every year from 1.87× to 1.08×. Free cash flow never regained its early level, Rp2.41tn and Rp2.61tn in FY2021 and FY2022 against Rp0.81tn now, so expansion has been funded faster than it has been earned. Interest cover of 2.33× is the number to watch.

Regulation

Regulated by the Ministry of Public Works and Housing (building/zoning permits), local government spatial-planning rules for each township, and OJK for its listed-company disclosure obligations. Mortgage-financing regulation (LTV rules from Bank Indonesia) affects buyer demand.

ESG & Sustainability

Material issues: land-use planning and environmental impact of large-scale township development, construction-phase safety, and community infrastructure (schools, healthcare, green space) that townships are expected to provide. Governance reflects a long-established, professionally managed public company.

Risks

Net debt more than doubled over five years (Rp4.27tn→Rp9.95tn) while FCF nearly halved: the dominant risk theme
Current ratio declined every year (1.87×→1.08×), though still above 1×
Revenue is lumpy (handover-timing dependent), making single-year comparisons unreliable
Intense competition from CTRA/BSDE for the same buyer pool
Mortgage-rate sensitivity affects both buyer demand and SMRA’s own rising financing costs

Outlook & What to Watch

Base case: revenue normalises somewhere between the FY2024 peak and FY2021–23 baseline, while net debt continues rising unless the company shifts toward deleveraging. Bull: recurring mall income and new township maturation (Emerald Karawang, Mutiara Makassar, Bogor, Crown Gading, Tangerang) lift both revenue and FCF, allowing leverage to stabilise. Bear: continued FCF softness alongside rising leverage tightens the current ratio further, though nothing in this data shows distress yet; this is a trend to monitor, not a crisis today. (Interpretation, not a forecast.)

Key KPIs

Net debt: Rp2.77tn (FY22 low) → Rp9.95tn (FY25): more than 3.5x from the low point
FCF: Rp2.4–2.6tn (FY21–22) → Rp0.42–0.82tn (FY24–25): a clear declining trend
Current ratio: 1.87× → 1.08×, declining every year
Revenue: Lumpy: Rp5.57–10.62tn range, driven by unit-handover timing
D/E: 0.50× (FY22 low) → 0.83× (FY25): steadily rising

Sources

Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.