…
…
ROE = tax × interest × margin × turnover × leverage
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax burden | -7.68x | 0.37x | 0.48x | -0.40x | 0.65x |
| Interest burdendriver | 0.10x | 0.53x | 0.73x | 0.71x | 0.70x |
| Operating margin | 5.6% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 21.0% | 22.7% |
| Asset turnover | 0.71x | 0.69x | 0.66x | 0.55x | 0.54x |
| Leverage (equity mult.) | 2.23x | 1.99x | 1.76x | 2.23x | 1.87x |
| = Return on Equity (consolidated) | -7.0% | 2.2% | 6.4% | -7.3% | 10.5% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | — | 2.7% | 8.5% | — | 10.6% |
Consolidated (pre-minority-interest) basis; the headline ROE in the ratio grid is owners’ basis.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio(Current Assets / Current Liabilities) | 1.40x | 1.82x | 1.76x | 2.27x | 4.02x |
| Quick Ratio((Current Assets − Inventory) / Current Liabilities) | 1.01x | 1.43x | 1.53x | 2.04x | 3.61x |
| Cash Ratio(Cash / Current Liabilities) | 0.42x | 0.98x | 0.39x | 1.36x | 2.71x |
| Working Capital(Current Assets − Current Liabilities) | Rp 151 M | Rp 256 M | Rp 437 M | Rp 299 M | Rp 468 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity (DER)(Total Debt / Total Equity) | 1.01x | 0.86x | 0.26x | 1.11x | 0.76x |
| Liabilities to Equity(Total Liabilities / Total Equity) | 1.23x | 0.99x | 0.76x | 1.23x | 0.87x |
| Debt to Assets(Total Debt / Total Assets) | 0.45x | 0.43x | 0.15x | 0.50x | 0.41x |
| Net Debt(Total Debt − Cash) | Rp 683 M | Rp 490 M | Rp 28 M | Rp 817 M | Rp 513 M |
| Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest Expense) | 1.11x | 2.14x | 3.74x | 3.43x | 3.34x |
| Equity Multiplier (Assets ÷ Equity) | 2.23x | 1.99x | 1.76x | 2.23x | 1.87x |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin(Gross Profit / Revenue) | 13.3% | 15.6% | 23.2% | 27.8% | 29.7% |
| Operating Margin(EBIT / Revenue) | 5.6% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 21.0% | 22.7% |
| Net Margin(Net Income / Revenue) | -4.4% | 1.6% | 5.5% | -5.9% | 10.3% |
| EBITDA(EBIT + D&A) | Rp 198 M | Rp 212 M | Rp 274 M | Rp 286 M | Rp 408 M |
| EBITDA Margin(EBITDA / Revenue) | 15.0% | 16.9% | 24.0% | 22.5% | 32.8% |
| Return on Assets (ROA)(Net Income / Total Assets) | -3.1% | 1.1% | 3.6% | -3.3% | 5.6% |
| Return on Equity (ROE)(Net Income (Owners) / Equity (Owners)) | -6.5% | 2.1% | 6.0% | -7.8% | 11.2% |
| Tax Burden (Net ÷ Pretax) | -7.68x | 0.37x | 0.48x | -0.40x | 0.65x |
| Interest Burden (Pretax ÷ EBIT) | 0.10x | 0.53x | 0.73x | 0.71x | 0.70x |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | — | 2.7% | 8.5% | — | 10.6% |
| Turnover | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover(Revenue / Total Assets) | 0.71x | 0.69x | 0.66x | 0.55x | 0.54x |
| Inventory Turnover(COGS / Inventory) | 7.84x | 8.69x | 6.55x | 16.73x | 13.85x |
| Receivables Turnover(Revenue / Receivables) | 8.05x | 19.09x | 17.69x | 17.83x | 18.27x |
| Payables Turnover(COGS / Payables) | 22.19x | 62.81x | 48.83x | 47.77x | 40.13x |
| Conversion Period | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)(365 × Inventory / COGS) | 46.6 days | 42.0 days | 55.7 days | 21.8 days | 26.3 days |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)(365 × Receivables / Revenue) | 45.3 days | 19.1 days | 20.6 days | 20.5 days | 20.0 days |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)(365 × Payables / COGS) | 16.4 days | 5.8 days | 7.5 days | 7.6 days | 9.1 days |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(DIO + DSO − DPO) | 75.5 days | 55.3 days | 68.9 days | 34.6 days | 37.2 days |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow − Capex) | Rp 336 M | Rp 298 M | Rp 239 M | Rp 259 M | Rp 303 M |
Price Rp 865 · market cap Rp 2.4 T
| Multiple | PORT | Peer median | vs median |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.93x | 9.58x | +97% |
| P/B | 2.11x | 1.57x | +35% |
| P/S | 1.95x | 0.98x | +100% |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.39x | 6.23x | +19% |
| EV/EBIT | 10.69x | 8.90x | +20% |
| EV/Sales | 2.42x | 1.49x | +63% |
| FCF Yield | 12.46% | 19.11% | -35% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 3.84%(3/4) | — |
EV = mkt cap Rp 2.4 T + debt Rp 933 M − cash Rp 420 M + minority interest Rp 73 M = Rp 3.0 T
At today’s price, the market is paying for 4.3%/yr FCF growth (1.3% at 12.0% to 7.0% at 16.0% discount rates). Delivered over the last 4 years: -2.6% FCF · -1.5% revenue.
Reverse DCF: single-stage FCF, terminal growth 2.5%, discount band 12.0–16.0% (β=1; build cited in Methodology). Not a forecast.
This model projects the operating cash the whole business generates, discounts it back at the blended cost of capital, and subtracts net debt. What remains is the equity value, stated per share. Every input below comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and you can adjust each one yourself.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Rf (risk-free) | 7.26% | Indonesia 10Y government bond, 8 Jul 2026 |
| ERP (Rm − Rf) | 6.69% | Damodaran Indonesia, Jul 2026 (Baa2, CRP 2.46%) |
| β | 0.68 → 0.85 | Transportation (unlevered) relevered at own D/E 0.38 |
| Cost of equity | 12.94% | Rf + β × ERP |
| Cost of debt | 9.06% | FY2025 interest expense ÷ total debt |
| Tax rate | 35.0% | median effective rate FY2021–FY2025 computed to 43.7%, CLAMPED to 35%: above that ceiling the pretax approximation is carrying minority interests, which are already deducted separately from enterprise value, rather than tax |
| WACC | 10.99% | 72% E × CoE + 28% D × Kd × (1 − t) |
| Revenue growth (yr 1, fading) | -1.5% | delivered 4-yr revenue CAGR -1.5%, fading linearly to terminal |
| EBIT margin | 19.8% | mean EBIT margin, last 3 FYs |
| D&A / revenue | 6.6% | mean D&A/revenue, last 3 FYs |
| Capex / revenue | 0.5% | mean capex/revenue, last 3 FYs, for the explicit years; in the terminal year capex falls to replacement level (equal to depreciation, 6.6% of revenue) because holding a build-phase or pause-phase ratio in perpetuity misprices the company in whichever direction that phase points |
| ΔNWC / Δrevenue | -9.1% | median ΔNWC/Δrevenue across the seeded years (NWC = AR + inventory − AP) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | BI inflation-target midpoint (2.5% ± 1%) |
| Year | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | T∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | -1.5% | -0.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Revenue | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.2 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.3 T |
| EBIT | Rp 242 M | Rp 241 M | Rp 242 M | Rp 246 M | Rp 252 M | Rp 259 M |
| NOPAT | Rp 158 M | Rp 157 M | Rp 158 M | Rp 160 M | Rp 164 M | Rp 168 M |
| + D&A | Rp 81 M | Rp 81 M | Rp 81 M | Rp 83 M | Rp 85 M | Rp 87 M |
| − Capex | Rp 6.6 M | Rp 6.5 M | Rp 6.6 M | Rp 6.7 M | Rp 6.8 M | Rp 87 M |
| − ΔNWC | Rp 1.7 M | Rp 561 jt | -Rp 556 jt | -Rp 1.7 M | -Rp 2.8 M | -Rp 2.9 M |
| FCFF | Rp 231 M | Rp 231 M | Rp 233 M | Rp 238 M | Rp 245 M | Rp 171 M |
| PV | Rp 208 M | Rp 187 M | Rp 170 M | Rp 157 M | Rp 145 M | Rp 1.2 T |
Check it yourself: revenue × margin = EBIT · NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) · FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC · PV = FCFF ÷ (1+WACC)^yr · TV = FCFF(T∞) ÷ (WACC − g), discounted from year 5
EV = PV(explicit) Rp 868 M + PV(TV) Rp 1.2 T = Rp 2.1 T · TV 58% of EV · − net debt Rp 513 M − minority Rp 73 M
Model output: Rp 526/share (-39% vs price Rp 865)· exit-multiple check (6.2x): Rp 544
Under these assumptions the model lands 39% below today's price. The market, in other words, is paying for faster growth, a fatter margin, or a lower discount rate than the inputs here assume.
| g \ WACC | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 570 | 492 | 430 |
| 2.5% | 613 | 526 | 456 |
| 3.0% | 662 | 563 | 486 |
Model output under the stated assumptions. Every input above comes from the company's own audited record or from cited market data, and every one can be adjusted. This is not a price target and not advice.
Educational analysis. Multiples pair today’s price with the latest audited fiscal year (trailing-FY convention); peer figures are the covered peer sample, not the whole market. Never a price target.
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.2 T |
| Cost of Goods Sold | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 878 M | Rp 918 M | Rp 874 M |
| Gross Profit | Rp 176 M | Rp 196 M | Rp 266 M | Rp 353 M | Rp 370 M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | Rp 74 M | Rp 104 M | Rp 180 M | Rp 266 M | Rp 282 M |
| Interest Expense | Rp 67 M | Rp 49 M | Rp 48 M | Rp 78 M | Rp 85 M |
| Net Income | -Rp 58 M | Rp 20 M | Rp 63 M | -Rp 75 M | Rp 128 M |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners | -Rp 58 M | Rp 20 M | Rp 63 M | -Rp 75 M | Rp 128 M |
| Depreciation & Amortization | Rp 124 M | Rp 108 M | Rp 94 M | Rp 20 M | Rp 126 M |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Rp 157 M | Rp 305 M | Rp 225 M | Rp 319 M | Rp 420 M |
| Accounts Receivable | Rp 164 M | Rp 66 M | Rp 65 M | Rp 71 M | Rp 68 M |
| Inventory | Rp 146 M | Rp 122 M | Rp 134 M | Rp 55 M | Rp 63 M |
| Current Assets | Rp 528 M | Rp 568 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 534 M | Rp 623 M |
| Total Assets | Rp 1.9 T | Rp 1.8 T | Rp 1.7 T | Rp 2.3 T | Rp 2.3 T |
| Accounts Payable | Rp 52 M | Rp 17 M | Rp 18 M | Rp 19 M | Rp 22 M |
| Current Liabilities | Rp 376 M | Rp 311 M | Rp 571 M | Rp 235 M | Rp 155 M |
| Total Liabilities | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 909 M | Rp 744 M | Rp 1.3 T | Rp 1.1 T |
| Total Interest-Bearing Debt | Rp 841 M | Rp 795 M | Rp 253 M | Rp 1.1 T | Rp 933 M |
| Total Equity | Rp 835 M | Rp 921 M | Rp 977 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 1.2 T |
| Equity Attributable to Owners | Rp 899 M | Rp 990 M | Rp 1.0 T | Rp 964 M | Rp 1.1 T |
| FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | Rp 348 M | Rp 319 M | Rp 247 M | Rp 267 M | Rp 306 M |
| Capital Expenditure | Rp 12 M | Rp 20 M | Rp 8.5 M | Rp 7.7 M | Rp 3.1 M |
PORT (Nusantara Pelabuhan Handal), a container-terminal operator and subsidiary of China Merchants Port Holdings (Hong Kong), tells a genuinely two-sided story that should not be smoothed into either "growing" or "volatile" alone. On the operating side, the business has improved steadily and substantially every single year from FY2021 to FY2025: EBIT grew from Rp74.3bn to Rp282.2bn (+280% cumulative), and EBIT margin expanded from 5.6% to 22.7%; a real, consistent, quantified improvement with no reversals. Yet net income has been extremely volatile over the same window: a loss of Rp58.4bn (2021), a small profit (2022, 2023), another loss of Rp75.2bn (2024), then a strong Rp128.4bn profit (2025); two loss years despite the operating business improving in both of them. The gap between a growing EBIT and a swinging net result points to volatility below the operating line (interest expense and/or non-operating items) rather than operating weakness: debt more than quadrupled in 2024 alone (Rp253.4bn→Rp1,136.1bn), the same year as the second loss, a real, disclosed correlation worth flagging even without a fully itemized below-EBIT breakdown to confirm the exact mechanism. Revenue itself has not grown in a straight line (Rp1.32tn in 2021 to Rp1.24tn in 2025, oscillating in a Rp1.14-1.32tn band): the EBIT-margin expansion is a cost/efficiency story, not a volume story.
Cranes, yard equipment and berthing facilities under government concession/license.
EconomicsCapital-intensive, licensed infrastructure: the real barrier to entry in this business.
Loading/unloading and stevedoring services billed per container/volume handled; revenue has ranged Rp1.14-1.32tn with no clear trend.
EconomicsVolume-driven revenue, tied to shipping-line traffic through PORT's terminals.
EBIT margin expanded from 5.6% to 22.7% over 5 years despite flat revenue: a genuine, sustained cost/efficiency improvement.
EconomicsThe clearest positive, consistent signal in PORT's record: plausibly aided by China Merchants Port group operational expertise.
Debt has swung sharply (Rp253.4bn to Rp1.14tn and back within 3 years): the most plausible driver of the 2 net-loss years despite positive EBIT throughout.
EconomicsThe real source of PORT's bottom-line volatility, distinct from its steadily-improving operating business.
Cost structureCOGS (Rp874.3bn FY2025) is the dominant cost line against revenue of Rp1.24tn; depreciation (Rp126.3bn FY2025, a large fixed cost reflecting port-infrastructure capital intensity) and interest expense (Rp84.5bn FY2025) are the next largest lines.
Cash cycleTerminal fees collected on handling services, redeployed into infrastructure maintenance and debt service. FY2025 operating cash flow (Rp305.8bn) comfortably exceeded both net income (Rp128.4bn) and capex (Rp3.1bn, unusually low this year): a genuinely strong cash-generation year following the FY2024 debt spike.
Port equipment (cranes, yard machinery) suppliers and fuel/energy costs set major input costs; as a China Merchants Port subsidiary, PORT likely has group-level procurement advantages versus standalone domestic operators.
Implication → Group backing plausibly supports the steady EBIT-margin expansion seen over the FY2021-2025 window.
Shipping lines calling at PORT's terminals (including SMDR/TMAS-class carriers) negotiate handling rates; volume concentration among a few major carriers gives them real leverage.
Implication → Revenue has not grown in a straight line (Rp1.32tn 2021 to Rp1.24tn 2025): consistent with real buyer pricing pressure even as PORT improves its own cost efficiency.
Port terminal operations require capital-intensive infrastructure and government concessions/licensing: a real, high barrier to new entrants.
Implication → Low entry threat supports the steady EBIT-margin improvement: competitive pressure is not the source of PORT's net-income volatility.
No practical substitute for container-terminal handling where PORT operates: cargo must be loaded/unloaded through a port.
Implication → Demand for terminal services is structurally secure; the net-income volatility is a financing/below-the-line issue, not a demand issue.
Competes with Pelindo (the dominant state port operator) and other terminal operators; as a China Merchants Port subsidiary, PORT competes on service quality and group-backed efficiency rather than price alone.
Implication → The steady EBIT-margin gains suggest PORT is winning on efficiency even as revenue itself stays range-bound against Pelindo's scale.
A genuine split: the operating business (EBIT) has improved every single year for 5 straight years; high-quality, consistent evidence of real operational gains. Net income has NOT followed the same clean trend (2 loss years): pointing to below-the-line volatility (financing costs, possibly FX or other non-operating items) rather than operating weakness. Both facts are disclosed together rather than the volatile headline being allowed to obscure the real operating improvement, or vice versa.
Checked: no material one-offs found in the reviewed window.
Cash conversionFY2025 operating cash flow (Rp305.8bn) exceeded net income (Rp128.4bn) by a healthy margin: a genuinely strong cash-conversion year, though the year-to-year debt volatility means this should be read across multiple years, not as a single-year steady state.
Mixed and volatile rather than a single clear pattern: capital structure has swung between sharp deleveraging (2023) and sharp re-leveraging (2024) within the same 5-year window, alongside minimal capex in some years (Rp3.1bn, FY2025) and presumably larger investment in others. This is not a deliberate builder or harvester strategy visible in the data: it reads as reactive capital-structure management around a genuinely improving but still-maturing operating business.
DeploymentFY2025 saw very low capex (Rp3.1bn) and debt paydown (Rp1.14tn→Rp933.0bn): a consolidation year following FY2024's debt spike, rather than fresh capital deployment into growth.
Returns trendOperating returns (EBIT margin) have improved every year without exception: the clearest, most reliable trend in PORT's record. Net-income-based returns are far less reliable given the 2 loss years; readers should anchor to the EBIT trend for the operating story and treat net income as the volatile, financing-sensitive headline.
EBIT grew every single year 2021-2025 (+280% cumulative) while net income posted 2 losses in the same window (2021, 2024): a real, quantified divergence pointing to below-the-line volatility (likely financing-related, given the 2024 debt spike coincided with that year's loss) rather than operating weakness. Not fully itemized in the data extracted this batch: disclosed as a genuine analytical limitation.
Total debt fell to Rp253.4bn (2023, a multi-year low) then jumped to Rp1.14tn (2024, more than quadrupling in one year) before falling back to Rp933.0bn (2025): a real, disclosed instability in financing decisions, not a steady leverage trend in either direction.
Curated narrative (educational interpretation), backed by the linked sources. The figures above are deterministic. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's logistics sector is a fragmented IDR 900 T+ market. The listed segment is narrow: ASSA dominates vehicle fleet management and used-car logistics, while unlisted JNE, J&T, and Sicepat dominate express parcel delivery. E-commerce is the sector's primary growth engine.