The aggregate figures below cover only the 4 companies Neraca tracks, a peer sample rather than the whole industry. The real industry picture (full scale, regulation, outlook) is in the Deep Analysis section.
Cyclical members (SMDR, TMAS): multiples here divide today’s price by cycle-position earnings. A low P/E or EV/EBITDA at a commodity peak is the classic value trap, and a high one at a trough can mask cheapness. Compare against normalized earnings before concluding either way.
Multiples pair the snapshot price with each company’s latest audited fiscal year. NM = not meaningful (negative denominator), excluded from medians: counts shown as (usable/total). USD reporters’ market caps convert at the cited rate; the multiples themselves are unitless and comparable.
P/B vs ROE (value vs quality)
Deep Analysis
Reviewed: 2026-07-30
Analyst Verdict
Indonesia logistics market: ~IDR 900 T+ (BPS freight transport) / USD 60 B. 3PL express delivery dominated by JNE (~33 % market share), J&T Express (Sea Group), Sicepat, Tiki, PT Pos Indonesia (SOE): all unlisted. ASSA (Adi Sarana Armada) is Indonesia's largest vehicle fleet management company: ~65,000+ vehicles under B2B operational leasing, vehicle logistics (new car delivery to dealers), and used-car auction/remarketing (CARS.id; CarSome Indonesia JV). Revenue FY2023 est. ~IDR 4.5–5 T. ASSA is NOT a parcel delivery company: it operates the vehicle asset layer that enables logistics. Other listed: SMDR (Samudera Indonesia, shipping), BIRD (Blue Bird, taxi/ride-hailing), ASSA (fleet). GoJek/Grab logistics (GoSend/GrabExpress) are unlisted tech platforms. Indonesia's logistics cost as % of GDP is ~23 % (BPS/World Bank) vs. 8–12 % in developed markets: huge efficiency gap = structural growth runway for modern logistics players.
Structure & Dynamics
Six sub-segments in the broad logistics sector. (1) Express parcel/courier (CEP): JNE, J&T, Sicepat, Tiki, Pos Indonesia; e-commerce-driven, unlisted dominant players. (2) Vehicle fleet management: ASSA; long-term B2B leasing, new-car delivery, government fleet. (3) Bulk/freight shipping & port operations: SMDR (Samudera Indonesia), PT Pelayaran Tempuran Emas (TMAS), Pelindo, PORT (Nusantara Pelabuhan Handal, China Merchants Port-owned terminal operator); port-to-port commodity plus container-terminal handling. (4) Road freight (trucking): fragmented, mostly informal owner-operators; platform aggregators (Kargo.tech, Shipper, Deliveree). (5) Last-mile/urban logistics: GoSend (Gojek), GrabExpress; ride-hailing-derived. (6) Used car logistics/remarketing: ASSA's CARS.id (CarSome Indonesia JV); vehicle inspection, auction, and resale to end consumers or dealers.
The Express CEP sub-segment is the fastest-growing and e-commerce-linked, but dominated by unlisted players: JNE (~33 % market share, founded 1990, private), J&T Express (Sea Group, founded 2015, private), Sicepat (private, ~15 %), Tiki (PT Citra Van Titipan Kilat, private), Anteraja (Tri/Smartfren group), Lion Parcel, Ninja Xpress (SoftBank-backed). PT Pos Indonesia (SOE) is declining market share. E-commerce volume (Shopee, Tokopedia, TikTok Shop) is the primary demand driver: package volume CAGR ~25 % (2020–2025 est.). ASSA has limited CEP exposure; its strength is vehicle assets, not parcel throughput.
Bulk/Freight Shipping & Port Operations SMDR · TMAS · PORT
A genuinely different economics from ASSA's domestic fleet-leasing model: dominated by the global freight-rate cycle. SMDR (Samudera Indonesia, integrated container/bulk shipping, USD reporter) and TMAS (Pelayaran Tempuran Emas/Temas Line, domestic container shipping) both rode the 2022 pandemic-era freight-rate supercycle to a clear profit peak, then reverted sharply as global rates normalized: SMDR's net income fell from a 2022 peak of $212.7M to $50.7M by 2024 (a 76% collapse) before a modest 2025 recovery to $52.1M; TMAS's has declined every year since its own 2022 peak (Rp1.36tn→Rp499.2bn by 2025, -63% cumulative) even as its revenue stayed roughly flat (~Rp4.3tn); a real margin-compression story distinct from a volume collapse. Both continued expanding their asset base and taking on more debt through the downturn rather than retrenching. PORT (Nusantara Pelabuhan Handal, a container-terminal operator and subsidiary of China Merchants Port Holdings, Hong Kong) shows a different pattern: operating profit (EBIT) grew every single year (2021-2025, +280% cumulative) even through two net-LOSS years (2021, 2024); the losses trace to below-the-line volatility (debt/financing swings, not operating weakness), a real earnings-quality distinction worth keeping separate from the shipping-rate story.
Value Chain & Margin Pool
Fleet management: ASSA procures vehicles (ASII/Toyota/Daihatsu, Mitsubishi) → provides long-term B2B leasing → manages maintenance (ASSA workshops) → remarketes used vehicles via CARS.id at end-of-lease. Vehicle logistics: auto manufacturer → ASSA transport truck → dealer. Express CEP (unlisted dominant): shipper → pickup → sorting hub → line haul → last-mile delivery → recipient. Fees per package IDR 5,000–20,000 (mass market). Platform logistics: Kargo.tech, Shipper aggregate trucks and match to shippers; asset-light, digital.
Competitive Forces (Porter’s 5)
Supplier powerMedium
How much leverage input/funding providers have over pricing.
For ASSA fleet: vehicle OEM (Toyota, Mitsubishi) pricing is market-set; maintenance parts at commodity pricing; fuel (Pertamina/AKRA) is pass-through for fleet clients. For express CEP: fuel (diesel) is ~25 % of operating cost; Pertamina pricing + subsidy policy is a supply cost variable. Human capital (drivers, sorters) is Indonesia's lowest-cost input: high supply but turnover-sensitive. Last-mile bike couriers for GoSend/GrabExpress are gig workers: supply abundant, regulatory classification ongoing.
Implication → Fuel and labor are the two dominant variable cost drivers in logistics. Fuel subsidy policy changes create sudden margin pressure. ASSA's fleet model (pass-through fuel to clients) partially insulates it from fuel cost swings.
Buyer powerHigh
How much leverage customers have to push prices down.
Express CEP: e-commerce platforms (Shopee, Tokopedia, TikTok Shop) are the dominant shippers; their volume concentration gives extreme pricing leverage over couriers (JNE/J&T/Sicepat compete intensely for platform contracts). Shopee and Tokopedia have launched own logistics (Shopee Xpress, TikTok Logistics): creating in-house competition that further depresses courier rates. ASSA fleet clients: corporations and government with multi-year RFP processes; competitive bidding is standard; ASSA competes with ALD Automotive (private), Toyota Astra Financial Services fleet arm.
Implication → Buyer power is the structural profitability constraint for Indonesian logistics: particularly in express CEP where platform-owned logistics erode tariff floors. ASSA's fleet model (long-term B2B contracts) has higher buyer power insulation than spot-market parcel delivery.
Threat of new entryHigh
How easily new competitors can enter the market.
Express CEP: low capex barrier (motorcycle, small sorting facility); tech platforms (Ninja Xpress, Anteraja, GoSend) entered rapidly. E-commerce platforms (Shopee, Tokopedia) have entered own logistics vertically. ASSA fleet: fleet management requires vehicle procurement capital (high upfront) and nationwide service network; moderate barrier vs. CEP. Chinese logistics firms (SF Express, Lalamove, Manbang) are exploring Indonesia expansion.
Implication → Express CEP is the most contested sub-segment: expect continued fragmentation and rate compression. ASSA's fleet management has higher barriers (capital + network): more defensible.
Threat of substitutesLow
Risk that alternative products/services replace demand.
Logistics has no category substitute: goods must move. Within-sector substitution is the risk: platform-owned logistics substituting third-party couriers; rail substituting road freight on Java corridor (KAI Logistik); drone delivery (nascent, regulatory unclear in Indonesia). For ASSA fleet: in-house corporate fleet management substitutes ASSA's outsourced model, but the economics generally favour outsourcing (lower capex, opex flexibility).
Implication → The core logistics substitution is platform in-housing of last-mile delivery. ASSA's fleet model (asset-heavy, B2B) is less exposed to platform in-housing than parcel CEP operators.
Competitive rivalryHigh
Intensity of competition among existing players.
Express CEP: intense 6-player rivalry (JNE, J&T, Sicepat, Tiki, Pos Indonesia, Anteraja/Lion Parcel) with platform-owned logistics as new entrant. Rate wars periodically compress industry margins to near-zero. ASSA fleet: rivals include ALD Automotive (private), Toyota Astra Financial Services fleet division, rental majors (Trac Astra, PT Armada International Motor). Used-car (CARS.id): rivals include Carro (Singapore), OLX Autos Indonesia, Moladin, dealer networks.
Implication → Logistics is structurally a low-margin, high-rivalry sector in Indonesia. ASSA's fleet model has better margin resilience than pure-play CEP: long-term contracts vs. spot market rate volatility.
Key Drivers & Sensitivities
▲E-Commerce Volume Growth (Package Volume)
Indonesia e-commerce GMV ~USD 50 B (2024) growing >15 % pa: every IDR 1 T in e-commerce GMV generates ~10–15 M parcel shipments (estimated). Package volume CAGR ~25 % (2020–2025). This primarily benefits unlisted CEP players (JNE, J&T, Sicepat) but creates demand for last-mile delivery vehicles: ASSA's fleet indirectly benefits via Gojek/Grab ride-hailing fleet leasing. ASSA's CARS.id benefits from the digitisation of used-car transactions (a second-order e-commerce effect).
▲Indonesia Logistics Cost Efficiency Gap
Indonesia logistics cost ~23 % of GDP (BPS/World Bank) vs. ASEAN average ~13 % and developed markets 8–12 %. Closing this gap from 23 % to 18 % over 10 years = ~USD 30–40 B efficiency unlock. Toll road expansion (JSMR 7,000 km target), Pelindo port consolidation, and digital freight platforms (Kargo.tech, Shipper) are the structural drivers. ASSA fleet leasing benefits from corporate logistics outsourcing trend (companies reducing own fleet → outsource to ASSA).
Cross-Industry Linkages
ASSA fleet procurement links directly to automotive sector (Toyota, Daihatsu, Mitsubishi vehicle orders). Vehicle logistics (new car delivery) is a downstream of auto production volume. CARS.id used-car volume links to consumer auto financing cycle (FIFGROUP/ACC). Express CEP growth is a downstream of e-commerce GMV (Shopee, Tokopedia: see retail sector). Fuel cost (Pertamina/AKRA/BPH Migas) is a direct P&L input. GoJek/Grab fleet leasing from ASSA links ride-hailing volume to ASSA revenue.
Recent Developments
One number frames this entire sector: Indonesian logistics costs run at about 14.3% of GDP, roughly Rp 3 quadrillion or USD 189 billion, against a government target of bringing that down to 8%. Understand what that means before reading any operator. An archipelago of more than 17,000 islands with fragmented inland trucking is structurally expensive to serve, so the national cost ratio is not an efficiency failure by any single company; it is the market these companies operate in, and the policy push toward multimodal transport is an attempt to shrink the pool they earn from. Efficiency gains here largely accrue to shippers, not carriers. On market shape, courier and parcel is the fast-growing slice: the Indonesian courier, express and parcel market is estimated at about USD 7.86 billion in 2025 rising to USD 8.42 billion in 2026, with projections near USD 11.91 billion by 2031 on a roughly 7.2% compound rate, while freight transport remained the larger block at about 59% of total freight and logistics revenue in 2025. Parcel scale is now concentrated and international rather than local. J&T Global Express, founded in Indonesia, has been listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since October 2023 under code 1519, having priced about 326.6 million shares at HKD 12.00, and it passed 30 billion parcels handled globally for the first time in 2025, reaching 30.13 billion, up 22.2%. Within Indonesia it holds roughly 18% of the freight and logistics market with about 61% of e-commerce parcel delivery and 44% last-mile network coverage. That concentration, plus e-commerce platforms running their own captive last-mile fleets, is what compresses independent courier pricing: the volume is growing but the price per parcel is being set by players large enough to treat delivery as a cost centre rather than a profit centre.
Regulation
Kemenhub (Ministry of Transportation): trucking licences (STNK, SIUP angkutan), motorcycle courier regulations (ojek online regulatory framework under PM 118/2018). Gig worker status: Ketenagakerjaan (labor law) vs. mitra (partner) classification for driver-couriers: ongoing legal ambiguity affecting GoJek/Grab. BPH Migas: fuel pricing and subsidy (Premium/Pertalite for logistics vehicles). Customs (Kemenkeu): import logistics procedures, e-commerce cross-border (de minimis threshold USD 3/shipment). Pos Indonesia SOE mandate (USO) provides postal universal service obligation. METRA (Ministry of Transportation Regulation) on autonomous vehicle testing (nascent).
Cycle Position
Secular growth phase (e-commerce-driven): independent of macroeconomic cycle in volume terms. ASSA fleet: mid-cycle stable (corporate fleet demand tracks GDP). Used car (CARS.id): recovering with consumer confidence + BI rate cuts improving auto affordability. Express CEP: in structural rate war / margin compression phase from platform in-housing and oversupply of couriers. Toll road completion (Trans-Java) is a structural cost improvement tailwind.
ESG & Sustainability
Carbon: logistics is Indonesia's 2nd largest mobile emissions source (freight trucking). ASSA fleet electrification trials underway (EV commercial fleet pilot with BYD). Motorcycle couriers add to urban PM2.5 emissions. Gig worker welfare: GoJek/Grab courier income stability, accident coverage, and social security (BPJAMSOSTEK) are live social issues. Packaging waste from e-commerce parcels is a systemic sustainability problem: Ministry of Environment pushing EPR for e-commerce packaging.
Indonesia logistics growth is structural and durable: e-commerce volume, toll road completion, and the ~23 % logistics-cost-to-GDP inefficiency gap provide multi-decade tailwinds. ASSA is well-positioned in vehicle fleet management (less rate-war exposed than CEP) and benefits from the digital used-car market normalisation. The sector's listed opportunity is narrow: most value creation (JNE, J&T, GoJek logistics) remains unlisted; ASSA is the cleanest liquid proxy for Indonesia's vehicle logistics layer.
Sector KPIs
Fleet Size (vehicles under management)
ASSA fleet count; primary scale indicator for fleet management business
Fleet Utilisation Rate (%)
Active vehicles / total fleet; high utilisation = revenue efficiency and low idle cost
CARS.id Transaction Volume (units/yr)
Used-car marketplace GMV; tracks digital used-car monetisation
Revenue per Vehicle (IDR M/vehicle/yr)
Fleet productivity; tracks rate environment and utilisation
CEP Cost per Package (IDR, industry avg)
Industry rate benchmark; falling = margin compression; rising = pricing power recovery